EQB Q&A

Jeff Seder formed EQB in 1978, but it was not until a few years ago that everything fell into place for the biometrics company that specializes in heart and gait analysis of Thoroughbreds.

Teamed with former trainer Patrice Miller, Seder has developed a unique method that combines technology and horsemanship to predict performance in Thoroughbreds, specializing in yearling and two-year-old sales and culling decisions.

There are six horses entered in this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships that EQB either bought, recommended the purchase of, or consulted on a culling decision: champions Informed Decision and Forever Together; Grade 1 winners A Z Warrior, Jaycito, and Rightly So; and Grade 3 winner Riley Tucker.

I sat down with Seder and Miller when they were in Lexington last week at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky fall yearling sale and tried to get them to share some of their secrets.

PD: Congratulations on having six horses in this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Where did all of this success come from?
Seder: I came out of left field -- the Olympic sports medicine movement. I realized it could be adapted to horses, and that’s what turned me onto this. I didn’t come through an apprenticeship with great trainers, but Patti Miller did.
So she and I come from a different place. We try to combine the objective and the subjective. The great horsemen can do it their way, but we’ve aspired to match them doing it our way.

PD: When did you guys meet?
Miller: It must have been the late 1970’s or early ‘80s. I thought Jeff was crazy at first. I thought he was gonna get his brains kicked out. He would run up and stick a thermometer in a horse’s ass. He would scare me to death.

PD: Did something just click a few years ago?
Seder: The first 20-some years were really hard. The ability to do what we wanted to do didn’t exist until recently. We made a lot of mistakes. For everything that worked there were ten things we spent time and money on that didn’t work.

We invented the heart stuff back in 1982 in conjunction with Dr. Norm Rantanen. When the first personal computers came out, we put custom software in there and we had to order specially made transducers to do what we wanted on the heart. Now you can buy all that equipment off the shelf, but we had to make it.

We were checking heart rates and using an EKG meter 20 years ago. So we have data on thousands and thousands of hearts. We were the first ones to do that with accuracy, at any temperature. We learned a ton of stuff, and every year we had more and more data in all these areas.

We didn’t have enough data or good enough horsemanship in the beginning. By the nature of what we do, we should get better every year. The more and better data we have, the better we get at it.

Then we started working with more and better trainers and stables, and got data on the better horses. At the sale time, Patti was getting better at what she does.
Three years ago Ahmed Zayat and George Strawbridge came to us, and for the first time we were turned loose at the auctions and allowed to do it our way instead of working through the other guy’s people – their trainer or farm manager-- going down to the 15th horse on our list. We actually got to get bought the horses we wanted. We were finally doing our thing.

We got two champions (Forever Together and Informed Decision] out of the first five we bought for Strawbridge, and Zayat became the leading owner in the U.S. with horses like Zensational and then this year Eskendereya.

PD: I’ve noticed the horses you guys are on at the auctions, they’re not the million-dollar horses, but they’re usually not secrets either. You buy a lot in the $100,000 to $300,000 range. The horses you guys like seem to be a very specific subset of what I would identify as the “good” horses in every auction.

Seder: We believe that you really don’t have to pay more than $250,000 to $300,000 to buy a great horse. That is the sweet spot, because the probability of getting a Grade 1 winner is just as high as on the expensive horses. So even when the million-dollar horses are on our list, we‘re okay letting them go in favor of three or four horses that fit all out criteria for the same total price. I think there’s more good horses out there than people believe, but injury and attitude compromise them.

Some of the great horses in history, they look a lot like the horses we pick today. We’re doing it with something new, but we’re picking a lot of classic horses. I think the commercial market has keyed on a horse that can win as two-year-old and be fast early. I think people forgot what the classic horses were like.

PD: What separates you from your competition?
Seder: I don’t think anybody comes close to what we do with the heart. We do the lung, the spleen. Nobody has a technician like Patti Miller who has done 20 or 30 thousand horses and has been a trainer and a jockey. She goes into these stalls with these yearlings and she can get their heart rates down to 30 or 40 beats per minute.

That is important because in order to do what we do to measure the heart, you need the heart rate low. And that means you need a calm horse. That’s not easy to do in an auction environment in a strange place with a strange person. You can’t get accurate data that way…

What’s most important is what’s wrong, not what’s right. You’re looking for the hole. A horse that is very good at everything is better than a horse that’s excellent at a few things.

The heart data and the fact we consider so many variables – that’s our edge. Another thing we do is we look at every horse in the sale. If there’s 300 horses in a sale, we look at 300. To do that, it takes time, and it’s exhausting. Trainers don’t have that much time, and bloodstock agents don’t have the money frankly to field that kind of an effort.

I financed it in the beginning and I lost enormous amounts of money. Now we can do it and get paid for it.

PD: So, what are you actually measuring on the hearts?
Seder: We’re measuring the size of the left ventricle, how much blood it holds, thickness of walls, and the ejection fraction percentage of the volume the left ventricle can actually pump in one stroke. You don’t want it too big or too little. It’s the same as in a racing engine. If the stroke of the piston pushes out too much of what the cylinder holds, you lose power because it creates turbulence and you lose efficiency in the next stroke.

We also look at the quality of the heart muscle, and the shape and size of the chambers. And there’s other organs that have to go with it.
There’s more than one way to put the notes together to make a symphony, but if you just put the notes together at random, it won’t sound good. In other words, it’s not just a big heart. It’s a heart that fits together with everything else.

PD: What are you using to get the heart data and how do you know what it means?
Seder: We use 2d ultrasound, confirmed through cadaver study at major universities.

PD: What are some of the ways Patti’s horsemanship comes into play?
Seder: Conrad Lorenz wrote a classic text on animal behavior called “On Aggression.” It really is a science, but it’s an art as well. Patti has a pretty good intuition, especially at the farms where you can see them interact with the other horses in the field.
Madcap Escapade, when she came in from the field, the other yearlings parted like the Red Sea. That was important.

Eskendereya was a chunky foal, not a typical looking yearling, but his behavior was that of a prize boxer, a dominant athlete.

Patti observes how horses interact. There are some horses we don’t touch because we think they’ll be crazy. A really good horse does what you want when you want. Patti has the authority to nix a horse if we think it’s whack-a-doodle.

Miller: No one interviews horses and asks them if they want to try out for the track team or the chess team. Some horses are dead competitive from day one, some can learn to race, and a lot of them just say, “Not tonight...”

You’re looking for a horse that is going to go out there and try under adversity. When they get to the quarter pole in the Kentucky Derby, I guarantee you the first flight all has five-release cardios and good gaits. But from that quarter pole home, it’s another kind of heart that carries them…

Sometime you’ll see a stone sprinter body and you look inside and it’s got a route cardio. Those horses don’t work. The same with pedigree. You want it to match.
I really love a smart horse. Good horses, either they’re a little bit temperamental – fillies especially -- or they’re smart. And they don’t pick a fight unless they absolutely have to. When you’re in a sales situation you can’t see that.

But if a horse gets upset by everything little thing while I’m looking at him, I guarantee I won’t like that horse. They have to be tougher than that at the track.
Informed Decision is a lovely, compliant horse. At least she was when I had her as a two-year-old. Forever Together is a bitch. I remember I sat at a stream with her, and I tapped her – she doesn’t like to be hit – but I just had to tap her to get her to go on. She had been allowed to get away with a few things, so I had to outlast her. She got to the point where she would do anything you asked. I’m sure Jonathan Sheppard has faced a lot of challenges training her.

Mr. Zayat is one of our clients who likes input on temperament and the types of races we think a horse will excel at.


PD: Tell me about the culling work you’re being hired to do?
Seder: We’re going to farms and training centers. We set up our slow motion film, and we look at the horses in workouts. We talk to handlers and vets and riders and look at the horses. And all that data goes together to help us recommend who to keep and who are the lower probability horses. And we’re not always right. The low probability events happen.

But just because something unlikely happens, it doesn’t make it likely. You have to play the odds in this business. We’re supposed to produce Grade 1 winners every single year for major clients. We can’t go after the low probability events. We have a saying, “The race is not always to the swift or the strong, but that’ the way to bet.”

PD: Do you prefer to buy at yearling or two-year-old sales?
Seder: The statistics are clear that more really good horses come from yearling sales, but I think that’s deceptive, because many more are sold as yearlings.

We are twice as reliable at two-year-old sales. The reason for that is common sense. At the two-year-old sales, you have an enormous amount of data that is more relevant. At a yearling sale, all we have is the heart, the walk, and standing conformation, so we’re not as good. We‘re pretty good, but we’re not as good.

PD: Our sales-to-racetrack data shows better percentages of runners coming out of the two-year-old sales.
Seder: The two-year-old sales have grown up in the last ten years. They’re a whole different thing. It seems like half the slots in the Derby starting gate are from the two-year-old sales now. The professional pinhookers are buying a lot of nice yearlings and reselling them as two-year-olds. That’s changed the game.


PD: Is there anything you do not like about the two-year-old sales?
Seder: A lot of horses we’d love to buy fail the vet, and the injuries sometimes come as a result of being trained for the two-year-old sales. That is unfortunate.


PD: What conformation flaws can you live with and which are deal breakers?
Miller: It’s interesting what you forgive. It turns out it is combinations of conformation faults that are the kiss of death. You can have one thing and not the other thing, and you’ll be fine…
I would take a horse to New Bolton Center to have a tendon scanned, and I would watch the other horses with bowed tendons come in and go out. And after I watched about 20, I said, “Gee, there’s a couple conformation faults that I keep seeing.” Most of it was behind, and it wasn’t what you’d think to look for behind. But it was so dramatic I noticed it.

A lot of people think bowed tendons are tied to being back at the knee, but most of the bowed tendon horses I saw weren’t back at the knee.
Some were offset, but most horses are. But they all had the same hind-end flaw, and it was dramatic. I’d say in 80% of they bowed tendons, you will see this conformation flaw. It’s a big advantage when you take the data and organize it the way Jeff does.

You have to learn what works and doesn’t work. I save all my conformation comments, and whenever a horse wins a graded stake, I go back and look at my confo comments. I love to go to the Breeders’ Cup and just stand there in the paddock. You’re going to walk into the filly’s turf decision and see a lot of offset, crooked knees, toe-ins, and a lot of horses that aren’t perfect.

In the end, it’s something my father told me once. I’m sure the quote belongs to someone – “It’s better to have a diamond with a flaw then a pebble without.” You have to keep that in the back of your mind when you’re looking at a horse.
Informed Decision had a P1 chip. We bought her with it. She’s raced with it, and she’s never looked back.

PD: What is that fault that you believe leads to bowed tendons?
Miller: I’m not telling you that.

PD: Do you feel like you have a significant edge at the auctions?
Miller: I am so glad most people don’t use hearts or believe in them. At the yearling sales, hearts cut down the short list by 60%.

At the yearling sales, we use the heart data, my eye, and conformation analysis. At the two-year-old sales, it’s the high-speed film gait analysis and heart. Those are the edges.

Gait analysis I weigh heavier than anything. At the two-year-old sales, I don’t even look at the horses that aren’t Jeff’s top picks on gait analysis. There are a lot of pretty horses that can’t run.

PD: Let’s talk about some of the horses you recommended who will be running the Breeders’ Cup. What can you tell me about Jaycito (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile)?
Seder: According to my stuff, the further Jaycito goes, the better he’s gonna look. The way he is put together inside and out, he’s a classic horse.

PD: Mr. Zayat bred A Z Warrior (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies), put her in Keeneland September, and bought her back for $775,000. Did you tell him not to sell her?
Seder: Zayat is a smart guy and makes up his own mind. We told him this horse moves great and has a beautiful cardio system. We told him this is the kind of horse we recommend you buy. He kept her.

PD: You’ve got two horses in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, which one would you bet on?
Seder: I love Informed Decision, but Rightly So is a little younger and on top of her game. It’s not that she’s a better horse, but I think the way she runs and the way Informed Decision runs, it will be tough to catch Rightly So.

More BC Marathon thoughts

I will suspend making fun of the Breeders' Cup Marathon for this post.

One of my sportswriter friends from back in Illinois asked me, what is the point of the race?

I had two answers. I think it's an effort to encourage stamina in the U.S. breed and a nod to the longer distance international races.

Those are fine goals, but I think it's trying to do both at once, unsuccessfully.

The long distance international races -- 1 3/4 miles and up -- are run on turf, at distances beyond those currently run in American racing.

I'm sure all options will be on the table for the Breeders' Cup board -- from zapping the race, to all-out internationalization. I guess it could be a two-mile turf race? Although, that's not a great race on most American track configurations (too many turns). There probably are better ways to spend the purse money.

Entertainment Guide to 2010 Breeders' Cup

Ranking the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Races by entertainment value, in reverse order:

A well-meant, poorly executed idea:
The “Marathon”
In what universe is 1 3/4 miles on the dirt (or synthetic) a championship division? Who is this race for? Judging by the first two winners (Muhannak and Man of Iron) it is for undistinguished European handicap horses. Hands down, the worst of the new Breeders’ Cup races.

Developing stories:
Turf Sprint: The popularity explosion of turf sprints among America’s racing secretaries has reached epidemic status, and there is no cure in sight. I will be rooting for the filly Rose Catherine to run this field off their feet, if for no other reason than it might head off creation of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint (G3) in 2012.

Filly & Mare Sprint: I liked it better when our best female sprinters went in the BC Sprint. But what this year’s F&M Sprint lacks in star power, it makes up for in depth. Prediction: the favorite will be 3-to-1 and this will be termed “a great betting race” by the commentators.

Dirt Mile: This division makes sense in theory, but it will steal some very good horses from the Sprint every year and might also hurt the Classic. The overlap created by the new races will be exaggerated in this era of shrinking foal crops.

Down year:
Sprint: The additions of the Filly & Mare Sprint and the Dirt Mile have really hurt this race, which also suffered from injuries to top contenders Majesticperfection and Discreetly Mine.

Juvenile Fillies: Injuries and a lack of anything truly outstanding makes this a sub-par edition of a historically great race.

Getting there:
The Juvenile Turf races: It seems the juvenile turf races top many people’s lists of new Breeders’ Cup races we didn’t need, but I disagree because:
A) I love turf racing
B) Unlike the Marathon, the juvenile turf races are catching on. Europeans trainers are supporting the races with talented horses, albeit a cut below their best. And the two-year-old turf division is developing in America.

If anything, combine the juvenile turf races into one. The filly turf race looks more compelling than the male version this year. Winter Memories is star material, and I’ve loved Kathmanblu ever since she closed for second in the PG Johnson at Saratoga (which this year featured one of the most speed biased turf courses I have ever seen)

Lives up to the Breeders’ Cup name
Ladies Classic: Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck takes on elders. Worth seeing in the theater. (Name should be changed back to Distaff though.)

Turf: Quietly, this race drew the top rated turf horse in the world, Workforce, plus Arc de Triomphe troubled fourth-place finisher Behkabad. Sleeper Al Khali could be the U.S.’s best hope to hit the board.

Potentially great
Filly & Mare Turf: 2009 winner Midday is better than ever, winning three Group 1’s in a row. Her competition includes French Group 1 winner Plumania and Japanese Group 1 winner Red Desire. Not to mention 2008 winner Forever Together, the improving three-year-old Harmonious, and many others.
Juvenile: For the first time since 2005, the winners of all five Grade 1 North American two-year-old races (for open company) meet in the Juvenile. Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova are potential stars, and I love the way Jaycito was striding at the wire in the Norfolk Stakes (G1). 2011 Triple Crown preview.

Hall of Fame
Mile: Goldikova is one of the best turf milers of all time, and this race drew a great field. Brilliant three-year-old Sydney’s Candy should be all alone on the lead, with Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Paco Boy, and Proviso revving up behind, waiting for the right time to pounce.

Goldikova has faced the difficult, ambitious career path that I wish Zenyatta had. She has won seven open company Grade 1’s to Zenyatta’s one, and has traveled the world. But I still expect the Mile will finish second in terms of drama and emotional impact to…

The Classic: The Classic stretch run is likely to be the moment of the year. And the winner is likely to be Horse of the Year.

A mare winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice and finishing her career a perfect 20-for-20? Unlike the 2009 result, that truly would be “un-be-leeevable.”

Stable Ground: Yearling market shows signs of recovery

Since 2006 when the Thoroughbred auction industry reached its peak, total sales, average price, and median have declined every year at the Keeneland September yearling sale.

All three of those metrics increased in 2010, a year in which most market players are just hoping for some stability .

There are a lot of ways to judge a horse sale. To me, the most important stat at Keeneland this year was the 3.3% increase in total sales.

That growth came despite a catalog that was 332 horses smaller and an 80% decline in spending from 2009 leading buyer Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, whom the industry has relied on so heavily.

Certainly, the picture at Keeneland was not all rosy. Commercial breeders took it on the chin for the second consecutive year. Only 13% of the yearlings in the sale sold profitably according to Thoroughbred Times’ estimates.

Having paid the pre-bubble-burst stud fees of 2008 and forced to sell into a recession -- commercial breeders were up against it. But there is some good news to report in this arena.

Although costs of production remain too high, stud fees are becoming more reasonable. Combined with decreased supply of yearlings, the economic picture for commercial breeders should improve in 2011 and beyond.

The market downturn also has commercial breeders thinking more about the quality of mares they breed and the end result of their matings -- producing a good racehorse. (perhaps a side effect of having to race their buy-backs?)

Buy-back rate decreased slightly to 26.7% this year. Combining outs and buy-backs, the amount of inventory sellers were stuck with after the sale declined by 11.4%. And inventory is the enemy, especially considering how much it costs to carry a horse another year or two.

In order to recover from a recession, the market has to hit bottom. Given this year's progress, it appears the bottom of the yearling market was 2009.

It’s no longer getting worse. In 2010, that’s reason for optimism.

Cutting stakes purses at Arlington and the new simulcast market

When the press release came in last Friday afternoon, I was shaking my head – “Arlington Park trims $725,000 from stakes purses.”

I have a soft spot for Arlington. Located in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, Arlington is a modern, majestic facility with great sight lines, immaculately maintained grounds, good customer service, and one day a year of world class racing.

If you enjoy turf racing, a live visit on Arlington Million day carries my strongest recommendation.

Unfortunately, for much of the other 90 days of Arlington’s meet, the racing product does not live up to the facility. Low purses are the primary problem.

But faced with an approximate 20% decline in out-of-state handle so far at its 2010 meeting, Arlington had to do something. The decision came down to cutting overnight purses or trimming the stakes program.

In a joint decision with the Illinois Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association, Arlington decided to decrease the purses of 11 stakes – nine of them graded – and cancel another. Untouched by the changes were the three Arlington Million Day Grade 1’s and Arlington’s substantial Illinois-bred stakes program. Click here for the original story and the list of changes.

The decrease in graded stakes purse money at Arlington is part of a disturbing national trend. It is not easy to breed or buy a graded stakes horse, and the expenses of a racing stable are considerable. Owners should reap a considerable financial reward for winning a graded race. Does the 60% winner’s share of $100,000 for a Grade 3 or $150,000 for a Grade 2 cut it?

Earlier this week, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote a story that suggested the purse decreases could cost Arlington an appearance by 2008 champion female sprinter Informed Decision.

I spoke with Arlington President Roy Arnold on Wednesday about the difficult decision his track faced and a number of national issues. Arnold said the primary reason for the drop in out-of-state handle was a three-to-four week period during which Arlington’s signal was not offered in New York.

Arnold: When New York City OTB was not making statutory payments and using bankruptcy to justify that, New York racing officials took some steps, including ceasing to approve out-of-state simulcast contracts. It was an internal New York issue, and we were one of the fist tracks to fall victim to it.

It was not helpful to be cut out of the biggest pari-mutuel market in the country. We were not alone, but when you’re trying to get momentum early in a meet, it can affect you disproportionately. It affected our pool sizes, and that probably affected the decisions of some bigger gamblers who look for a certain pool size to play. We had planned on a drop of 5 to 10% due to national conditions, but there was no way to predict this.

Arnold said another factor at work is the decreased racing schedule for the less-is-more super meet experiment at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, which has been very successful at drawing out-of-state simulcast bets.

Arnold: When Monmouth and other tracks who do not have gaming announced they were going to consolidate their schedules, cutting Thursdays from their live schedule, my initial response was good! Because I’m operating on Thursday and it’s a chance for me to gain handle.

But here’s what I think is happening. Race fans are first and foremost local, then national. That’s my observation in Illinois definitely. We have a very robust fan base, one of the best in the country, but when there is not local Illinois content, they do not come and bet out-of-state simulcasts unless it’s a big event.

So as racing jurisdictions consolidate their live race dates, their fan wagering is declining on out-of-state product because few of those people are going to the parlors or the track to bet when there is no live product. They’re turning into weekend-only players.

Even though Arlington is still doing very well on Thursdays – we’re one of the top three tracks that day and have been for the last few years – we’re still down from last year.

I asked Arnold if he thought Arlington is one of the many tracks losing out in the simulcast wars to Monmouth, which has enjoyed a serious upgrade in field quality and size thanks to its experimental higher purse structure.

Arnold: I think the jury is still out on Monmouth’s approach in the long term. What we think we’ve seen is the interest in Monmouth is overall driving the market higher on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, but it’s disproportionately going to Monmouth and negatively affecting the other players.

Now we’re all for what Monmouth is doing. From a marketing standpoint, Monmouth has drawn interest back to the sport. But is it sustainable? Belmont is still out-handling Monmouth, and Belmont’s horsemen are earning what’s being paid out. Monmouth’s horsemen are not.

I’m a little bit concerned about others following suit, consolidating dates further, and not recognizing we’re moving our core players from five or six days a week to three. This consolidation of race dates represents a major change in the market…

The latest report shows that 29% of our purse money nationally is coming from enhanced gaming. That is really disturbing. I believe in sound business principles. We can’t be looking for a silver bullet. I think at the end of this year there will be a lot to discuss at the racing symposium.

Here is what Arnold had to say regarding the decision to cut the stakes purses instead of overnight races.

Arnold: Bottom line, we were given a choice between a reduction in the stakes program – to the minimum purse levels to maintain the current grades – or to decrease purses for the horsemen that provide 95% of our races.

We want to do everything we can to maintain purse level for those horsemen who stable here. So that meant we only had one place to look – the stakes program. It was a clear decision.

Couldn’t the purse cuts further lower the quality of stakes fields at Arlington?

Arnold: We love Mr. Sheppard and we certainly hope he comes and runs here with Informed Decision. But the case can be made that if you have a strong horse that takes a pass, you might actually end up with more horses. I would prefer to have Informed Decision here. But the reality is if we lose her, we might go from a good 6 or 7-horse field up to a wide open 10 or 12. From a wagering perspective, it could actually be better for us.

We think we’re a great place to run. You see a Rachel Alexandra run some place because the distance and time is right based on the larger goals for their campaign. Our condition book hasn’t changed. The horsemen who were looking at a race here, the purse money is only one and maybe not even the major factor in their decision to run here. And if it’s a turf race, we still think we’re in a predominant position as far as offering the best turf track in the country. A lot of horsemen run with us because they like Arlington and they like being treated first class. None of those things have changed.

While siding with the local horsemen on the purse issue, Arnold stressed to them the importance of field size.

Arnold: We used this opportunity to remind our horsemen that the nature of the pari-mutuel system is that you earn purse money as you go along, and field size is the most important factor. There’s no getting around it.

You must have a race card that provides the wagering public with the opportunities they’re seeking – not only adequate field sizes but interesting propositions in the multi-race wagers. If you can card consistently good field sizes and place the races properly – turf races and allowance races for example – on a day-to-day basis, the public will wager with you.

The good news is that our field sizes are coming back remarkably. We have an average field size of nine (today), and on Friday our average field size is ten.

Looking to the future, Illinois racing is still waiting for casino impact fee money the state legislature approved years ago.

Arnold: We’ve got $17-18-million currently in escrow for the purse account pending the outcome of an appeal by the casinos. That’s very frustrating to have that much money sitting in an account that has been earmarked for us to offset the impact the casino industry has had on he horse racing, yet we cannot access the money.

We’re going into the fifth year of that law and we continue to work our way through the legal process to gain access to those funds. As much as there is a dark cloud right now, we’re looking for a silver lining, and we think by maintaining solidarity with our horsemen we can power through to next year. Despite everything I’m still optimistic there is a future for Thoroughbred racing.

Belmont selection: ICE BOX

Ice Box is the fastest horse in this edition of the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he has a legitimate 12-furlong pedigree. His dam won going 1 ½ miles on the turf, his dam’s sire Tabasco Cat won the Belmont, and his sire’s sire A.P. Indy also was a Belmont winner.

Interactif is the other horse in this race with a Belmont quality pedigree, and he should be a big price. Interactif comes into the race off a freshening for trainer Todd Pletcher, who does some of his best work off the layoff.

Stately Victor is a question mark on fast dirt, but the price will be right. Still wondering if he is as good as his 4 ¼-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) appeared.

In vertical wagers, I would also use Fly Down, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and the two "Dude" horses underneath.

A look back: Make Music For Me

One of the things I like about covering the two-year-old sales is the ability to look back at the training preview for lessons in hindsight.

Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).

I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.

Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.

Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.

Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.

Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?

Weekend Warrior: Monmouth opener

Opening weekend for Monmouth Park's experimental 2010 meeting was a huge success. Attendance was up, and handle more than doubled.

Let us repeat the formula for horsemen or racing executives who were not paying attention: less race dates, higher purses, bigger and better fields, lower minimum wager increments, and lower takeout = the future of horse racing.

I did my part my part to support the concept by heading up to Keeneland to play Monmouth Saturday and Sunday. Other than Haskell day and the 2007 Breeders' Cup, I never previously have gone out of my way to bet on the New Jersey track.

I love the new 50-cent pick 5 wager Monmouth is offering (only 15% takeout). The bet produced a carryover of $123,029 into Sunday's card. My $54 stab hit three of five...

Horses Of Note

Repole Stables' Winaholic broke his maiden going a mile and 70 yards in the seventh race at Monmouth on Saturday in his second career start. The speed figure may not be too fast, but Winaholic was checked on the first turn and backstretch, and he was in traffic for much of the race. He launched a four-wide move turning for home and won by 2 1/4 lengths despite a few green moments. He is a candidate to improve with added distance and seasoning.

Speaking of seasoning, I thought Cash Is King Stable's Afleet Again was best in the Spend a Buck Stakes despite finishing third by 3/4 of a length on Sunday at Monmouth. The gray Afleet Alex colt was fractious in the gate, four wide on the first turn, and five wide on the second turn. He ducked out as the field turned for home and lost several lengths to the leaders, and he and jockey Abel Mariano still nearly won the race.

Afleet Again was not even the most impressive performer of the weekend from second-crop sire Afleet Alex. That honor goes to Gainesway Farm and Martin L. Cherry's Afleet Express, who won a NW1 allowance at Belmont on Saturday by 7 lengths. Afleet Express' time for seven furlongs was 1:21.72, and he was assigned a eye-catching Beyer Speed figure of 107. Let's see how he reacts to that huge effort in his next start.

On Friday I sent in my vote for the 2010 Racing Hall of Fame inductees, and one of my two YES votes went to 1989 champion sprinter Safely Kept (my other YES vote went to Horse of the Year and three-time champion older mare Azeri).

On Sunday at Belmont, Safely Kept's three-year-old colt Safety Check (by Empire Maker) looked grand while winning a maiden race by seven lengths. Owned by Richard Santulli, Safety Check set fleet fractions of :22.73, :45.61, and 1:09.90. His final time for seven furlongs was 1:22.99, about four lengths quicker than 13-length maiden winner Flawless ran a couple races earlier.

Breeders' Cup should continue to rotate venue

Perhaps as early as this Thursday the Breeders' Cup board will make an important decision about the event's future.

If Breeders' Cup names a long-term or permanent host track (rumored to be Santa Anita), it will be a departure from one of the Cup's best traditions - a rotating venue.

A roaming Breeders' Cup has a communal feel to it, giving the whole industry a sense of ownership. A permanent site threatens to make it parochial.

The logical move for the immediate future is a geographically balanced, four-year rotation that roughly mirrors what the Cup has been doing the last 26 years: Churchill Downs-Belmont Park-Santa Anita-rotating random site.

This plan shares the year-end championship between the Midwest, East Coast, and West Coast, with an opportunity every fourth year to expand internationally or spotlight other American tracks.

No track hosted the Cup for two consecutive years until Santa Anita in 2008-'09. It was a puzzling move considering the controversy surrounding Santa Anita's synthetic main track, which not only has drainage problems but so far has not yielded a single Breeders' Cup winner that previously raced on dirt, the surface favored by American racing for more than 200 years.

That decision cost the Breeders' Cup (and the sport) a potential all-time great moment had Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta settled the Horse of the Year debate on the track. Rachel's owner Jess Jackson kept her out of the 2009 Cup because of Santa Anita's surface.

Imagine if Major League baseball announced the World Series will be played at Fenway Park every year, and they were replacing the stadium's dirt and grass with a new synthetic material that would favor a certain type of ballplayer. Or the NFL decided the Super Bowl always will be played at the Louisiana Superdome.

The Boston Red Sox and New Orleans Saints only make it to the championship once in a while. Horses based at a permanent Breeders' Cup site will be there every year. It would create a home field advantage that is unprecedented in major sports.

At a time when the industry needs to come together, an end to the Breeders' Cup rotation could further splinter it.

Rotating sites is part of the Cup's identity. If it aint broke, don't fix it.

Stately Victor: Polytrack fluke or classic contender?

There were audible groans as 40-to-1 longshot Stately Victor blew by the field and won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by a widening four lengths at Keeneland last Saturday.

Another flukey result in a graded stake on the Polytrack...

Even in a weak edition of the Blue Grass -- this year's nine-horse field contained three Grade 3 winners -- Stately Victor looked overmatched on paper.

But there was nothing flukey about the way he won. Bumped at the start and in traffic early, Stately Victor settled in sixth place. Turning for home he and jockey Alan Garcia went by Interactif, arguably the classiest member of the field going in, and set aim on the leaders.

Stately Victor ran the final three furlongs in a powerful 35-2 and galloped out far ahead of the field.

In hindsight, he should not have been 40-to-1 in the Blue Grass. Although his PPs are spotty, the hints were there:

--He debuted in a good maiden race at Saratoga on August 22. Breaking slowly from the rail, he finished second and was gaining on subsequent Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Winslow Homer at the wire. Stately Victor was just getting going in the final furlong of that seven-furlong race.

--In his second start he broke his maiden going 1 1/16 on the Saratoga turf course. Shooting through a hole on the rail, he drew off by 4 1/2 lengths for a great looking win.

Now comes the hard part to look past. Stately Victor produced two dull races to close out his two-year-old campaign and showed none of his prior good form in his first two races of 2010.

But in a non-winners of one allowance on the turf at Gulfstream Park on March 7, Stately Victor gave a clue that he might be ready to move forward. For much of the past winter Gulfstream's turf course was as speed biased a turf course as I have ever seen. In 10th place turning for home and in traffic, Stately Victor fell off the screen.

It was a hopeless position, but he reappeared near the wire, running like a wild horse to finish fifth, beaten 1 3/4 lengths but moving best of all.

Most people are completely discounting the result of the Blue Grass and Stately Victor's chances in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and perhaps for good reason. But Stately Victor will enter the Derby with improving form, an impressive win, and a strong pedigree (He's by Horse of the Year and BC Classic winner Ghostzapper, out of the Grade 1 winning Dynaformer mare Collect the Cash).

If he works well leading up to the Derby and is ignored at the windows again, I will be tempted to play him to at least hit the board.

My 50 cents

While researching a story about Keeneland's plan to offer 50-cent pick three wagers , I came across an interesting statistic on the growth of Keeneland's pick four pools since the minimum was reduced to 50 cents.

Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.

The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.

But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.

Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)

In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)

Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.

"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."

That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.

If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.

The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.

Did Jackson overreact in pulling Rachel from Apple Blossom?

Going into the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the signals from Rachel Alexandra’s connections were clear: she was not 100% fit for her first start in more than six months.

The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.

But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”

Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?

Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?

Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?

Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.

Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.

Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.

Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.

Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.

Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.

It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.

Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.

Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.

By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.

15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.

Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.

Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.

If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.

Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.

There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.

But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.

New Jersey takes a bold step forward

The theory that horse racing will never get its act together on a national scale because the industry players are too busy looking out for their own bottom lines (or existence in some cases) has proven true time and again.

But a piece of news from New Jersey, where Monmouth Park will focus on quality instead of quantity in a shortened 50-day 2010 meeting, has snapped me out of my blogging funk.

Under the plan approved by the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association yesterday, Monmouth will race Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays (plus a few selected holiday Mondays) from May 22 until Sept. 11. If projections of $50-million in purse money spread over 50 dates hold true, Monmouth will have the highest purse structure in America.

The horsemen, who in many states have pushed for year-round racing that has diluted the sport to the point of oblivion, should be commended for going in a different direction.

I believe the future of horse racing in America is less dates, higher quality racing, bigger fields, and lower takeout – all in a beautiful, fan-friendly atmosphere that celebrates racing as a special event.

Despite the horrendous rain-soaked conditions Monmouth experienced when it hosted the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, I came away from my first and only visit to the Oceanport track with a favorable impression.

It’s a charming property with a loyal local fan base. And although its trifecta takeout of 25% is too high, 17% on WPS wagers and 15% on the pick 4 makes Monmouth one of the good guys in terms of giving gamblers a fighting chance to make a profit (and a reason to feed the pari-mutuel pools that fuel the sport’s purse structure).

What is good for gamblers is good for the sport.

Hopefully the same will be said about the new vision for New Jersey racing.

Sheikh Mohammed strikes for $700,000 Speightstown colt

by Jeff Lowe

A $700,000 Speightstown colt was one of two horses snatched up by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum within about ten minutes on Monday morning in the opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale.

Bloodstock agent John Ferguson bid alongside his client, Sheikh Mohammed, in their customary spot behind the sales ring.

The Speightstown colt was the top price through the first 50 hips. Consigned by Dromoland Farm, agent, the colt is a half brother to Grade 3 winner Elusive Diva, by Darley sire Elusive Quality.

After waiting for a few minutes while Tom Tate bought a Storm Cat half brother to Grade 1 winner Frost Giant for $300,000 and BBA Ireland signed for a Bernardini half brother to leading freshman sire Tapit, Ferguson jumped back in with the purchase of a Medaglia d’Oro half sister to Grade 1 winner Taste of Paradise for $300,000.

Darley bought a majority interest in Medaglia d’Oro this spring.

Ferguson , who declined an interview request when Sheikh Mohammed and his entourage left their bidding position, also bought a Storm Cat colt for $300,000 earlier in the morning.

Sheikh Mohammed’s trio boosted mixed results over the first two hours of the sale, which included fifteen horses from the first 41 horses in the catalog who were listed as reserve not attained.

Jeff Lowe is a Thoroughbred Times staff writer

Storm Cat colts among early leaders

by Jeff Lowe

Colts from the second to last crop of Storm Cat were among the most expensive purchases in the early stages Monday in the opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale.

Jack Sims bought a full brother to Group 1 winner Sophisticat and Grade 2 winner and Central Kentucky sire Grand Reward for $450,000.

Consigned by Denali Stud, agent for the Robert and Beverly Lewis Trust, the colt is out of champion Serena’s Song, by Rahy, who also has produced Grade 2 winner Harlington, by Unbridled, and stakes winner Serena’s Tune, by Mr. Prospector.

Sophisticat sold for $3.4-million in the 2000 Keeneland July yearling sale, and Harlington was a $2.8-million purchase in the 2003 Keeneland September sale.

Sims said the Storm Cat colt was the most expensive horse he has purchased.

“I think it was a real bargain,” said Sims, who is from Evanston , Wyoming and involved in the construction business. “I figured he would have brought $1.5-million. I think now is the best time in my lifetime in the horse industry to buy horses. “

Sims said he has about 15 horses in training throughout the country and around nine broodmares.

“I hope he isn’t the most expensive horse I own; I’ve got one selling tomorrow that I hope bring more,” Sims said, referring to a Bernardini colt who is hip 410 in Tuesday’s second session.

A Storm Cat colt from Overbrook Farm’s dispersal sold for $325,000 to John Ferguson, chief bloodstock adviser to Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum

The colt is out the Unbridled mare Referendum, a half sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Jersey Girl.

A bit later in the morning, Tom Tate bought a Storm Cat half brother to Grade 1 winner Frost Giant for $300,000 from the consignment of Lane’s End, agent.

Just after noon, Rick Porter went to $475,000 for a Storm Cat filly out of champion Wandesta (GB), by Nashwan.

Jeff Lowe is a Thoroughbred Times staff writer