Thoroughbred writer Pete Denk shares his experience covering North American Thoroughbred auctions and racing.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Is Betfair a good idea for America?

The biggest development related to Betfair’s purchase of Television Games Network is whether it will bring exchange wagering to America.

A fixture in Europe for almost a decade, Betfair offers players a chance to play bookmaker. It’s an exciting idea, provided integrity and handle issues can be worked out.

The handicapper/bettor in me loves the idea of a betting exchange. For one, it’s easier to pick a loser than a winner. And horse racing needs innovative ideas to combat declining handle.

Exchange wagering gives more people more reasons to bet on horse racing, whether by laying odds on horses they don’t like or by betting on a horse at a few points higher than will be offered through pari-mutuel pools.

But given the integrity problems the sport already faces, such as tote security and performance-enhancing drugs, is now the right time?

Betting exchanges amplify the power of insider trading. In the pari-mutuel system, even if someone thinks they know Horse A is going to run poorly, they still have to pick the winner in order to leverage that opinion. The ability to bet on a horse to perform badly provides direct incentive for a poor performance.

The other issue will be to ensure racetracks and horsemen get a fair share of handle from Betfair. An estimate of how much Betfair will cannibalize existing pari-mutuel handle will have to be worked into that formula.

Betfair already has made progress in winning over the horsemen’s organizations. Tracks, particularly Churchill Downs Inc., will be another matter entirely.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Benny's back

Other than the results of the votes, the big news coming out of last night's Eclipse Awards was the comeback of Champion Sprinter Benny the Bull.

The now six-year-old horse was retired in late August after developing ankle chips. But after stud plans failed to come together and an operation to remove the chips went smoothly, his owners began kicking around the idea of a return.

I recently spoke with trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., who really loves the enigmatic stretch runner and is ecstatic about the chance to train him again.

"I absolutely love the horse. He’s one of the funniest, coolest horses I’ve ever been around. By watching him train, you’d never think he’d be up for sprinter of the year. It took him forever to do anything. He did not want to work. When he would walk to the track, he wanted everybody in the world to feel so sorry for him because we were making him go out there and gallop. He'd have his head down."

"One day it was the funniest thing. I’m always standing on the rail at Aqueduct. Here comes Benny. It takes him like an hour and a half to walk a sixteenth of a mile, and he heard me open a mint wrapper. Naturally he was all over that. He came right to me, took the mint, and started marching right back home. It was the funniest thing I ever saw. I couldn’t stop laughing."

Dutrow said it was primarily IEAH Stables' Michael Iavaraone's idea to buy Benny privately, which IEAH did following the Lucky Lionel colt's win in the Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows on June 30, 2007.

Dutrow also credits exercise riders Michelle Nevin and Rudy Rodriguez for their work with Benny.

"They might be one of the reasons he turned out to be the sprinter he did. Those two people fit whatever is best for the horse they’re on. Maybe letting Benny be Benny, it turned him into the sprinter he is."

Dutrow said Benny is on a farm in Ocala right now, next to his old stablemate Diamond Stripes. The two horses traveled to Nad al Sheba together in March of 2008 when Diamond Stripes won the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2) and Benny won the Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1).

Monday, January 26, 2009

"False Surface"

Since the synthetic tracks are a favorite subject, I have to revisit Jess Jackson's "false surface" comment from the Eclipse Awards.

Here's what Jackson said during his acceptance speech for Curlin's Champion Older Horse award:

"I congratulate the Europeans for coming over and running on a false surface. But I do believe that given another year of racing Curlin might have shown that he could adjust his pasterns to do that."

Eclipse voters apparently concurred to a degree. They went against the results of the first synthetic Breeders' Cup in a few categories, choosing Indian Blessing over Ventura, Benny the Bull over Midnight Lute, and Curlin over Zenyatta.

The horses I voted for went 10-for-10 in the horse categories, but I was just 2-for-5 in the human categories. No surprise that Steve Asmuseen won outstanding trainer, I just liked Richard Dutrow, Bob Baffert, and Bobby Frankel's work better.

I preferred IEAH Stables in the owner category and Stonerside for breeder, instead of Adena Springs.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Desert Party begins for Godolphin

In case you missed it, they ran a race of interest in Dubai Thursday morning.

The $50,000 Ford Flex Trophy (about 7 furlongs) featured the three-year-old debut of 2008 Sanford Stakes (G2) winner Desert Party and Saratoga maiden graduate Regal Ransom.

Desert Party stalked the pace and then switched to the inside during the long stretch run to score a half-length win over his stablemate. Both of the top finishers looked good in the field of 16, which included South Africa’s champion two-year-old Rocks Off (who is now a four-year-old).

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum purchased Desert Party and Regal Ransom at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training.

Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat, was the $2.1-million sale topper and the most expensive two-year-old to sell at auction last year. Regal Ransom, a Distorted Humor colt out of Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom, sold for $675,000.

With likely two-year-old champion Midshipman and Champagne Stakes (G1) winner Vineyard Haven based in Dubai, the racing carnival at Nad al Sheba will be of greater interest on the Triple Crown trail than ever before.

---

While we’re on the subject, this Dubai Racing Club press release was making the rounds in our office Thursday morning. The theory being pushed by the writer is that, contrary to what many American horsemen believe, a trip to Dubai does not take much out of a horse.

The case study is 11-year-old Tour of the Cat, who finished eighth in the 2004 Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) but has remained a productive racehorse, albeit after taking 14 months off at the end of 2004 and gradually sliding down the class scale.

Tour of the Cat’s January 18 win at Aqueduct prompted a press release from NYRA recognizing the old millionaire warrior.

The Dubai Racing Club latched onto the story but attached a different spin. Here’s the key sentence.

“The [January 18, 2009] victory is more evidence disproving a myth that has been circulated by some members of the American media that horses that travel to the Middle East to race often don’t perform much longer afterward.”

What the press release failed to disclose was that Tour of the Cat’s victory last Sunday came in a $7,500 claiming race!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Random thoughts on the Saturday cards

So far in 2009, Gulfstream Park gets my vote for best racing (for its day-to-day consistency).

But Santa Anita is the card to watch this Saturday with its graded stakes trio (Races 6-7-8) on the Pro-Ride surface.

The Santa Ynez (G2) is a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. The top two choices in the field of nine should be Sorrento Stakes (G3) winner Evita Argentina and Alpha Kitten, who shortens up off a fourth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Hollywood Starlet (G1).

How big would a win by Spanish Ice be for the stallion career of second-crop sire Spanish Steps? Martin Stables owns Spanish Ice and stands her sire, an unraced full brother to Unbridled's Song. Eddie Martin has supported Spanish Steps strongly with his own mares and his efforts at auction.

---

How good was the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), won by Midshipman? We'll get some indicator from the 1-mile San Rafael Stakes (G3), where Square Eddie makes his three-year-old debut.

Square Eddie appeared to run a good second in the Breeders' Cup. If the '08 Juvenile was a quality edition, he rolls in here. If he loses, it'll make me regret not voting for Vineyard Haven as champion two-year-old male.

---

The San Fernando, at 1 1/16 miles, drew an eclectic group that includes New York-bred Grade 3 winner Wishful Tomcat, a recent private purchase for IEAH Stables.

Muny, Cherokee Artist, Booted, El Gato Malo, and Slew's Tiznow are the promising four-year-olds I'm watching for in here.

---

It was a pretty disappointing afternoon on the Pro-Ride.

Spanish Ice scratched, but Alpha Kitten looked good winning the Santa Ynez. As did runner-up Evita Argentina, whose sire Candy Ride (Arg) continues to look like a solid stud.

In the San Rafael, Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie finished an uninspiring second in a weak field of five at 3-to-5 odds. The winner, The Pamplemousse, set swift fractions and kicked for home. He was the only horse to do any serious running, and this definitely puts a question mark on the quality of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

In the San Fernando, Nownownow, back under the care of Patrick Biancone, resurfaced for his first victory since the 2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Del Mar Derby (G2) winner Madeo was was pulled up and vanned off. (Trainer John Shireffs said on Sunday he believed Madeo would be fine.)

Later on at Golden Gate Fields, Candy Ride's stock kept rising as Chocolate Candy was a 1 3/4-length winner in the California Derby.

Gallant Son, who finished seventh but was beaten just 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, could do no better than fifth.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Mares vs. yearlings

Day three of the Keeneland January horses of all ages sales got interesting when Florida pinhooker Jimmy Gladwell outlasted Bill and Brian Graves (among others) and paid $390,000 for a Maria's Mon colt out of La Cucina (Ire).

Gladwell and Graves are a couple of the best evaluators in the business, so this was a battle of the sharpies, and they pushed the colt's price close to the brink of pinhook profitability.

The price was an example of how the commercial market is still quite strong for attractive yearlings.

Another thing that jumped out to me was that La Cucina, in foal to $75,000 stud Empire Maker, sold for just $150,000 on Monday to Anthony Penfold, agent for Litex Stud of England.

La Cucina is 16, but that price already looks like a good deal.

La Cucina has delivered 12 consecutive foals, including Grade 2 winner and sire Sir Cherokee. And she has done some excellent recent work in terms of sales results and racetrack success.

Her foal of 2005, the Silver Charm filly Miss Isella, won the 2008 Falls City Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs. Her Speightstown filly of 2007 was a $230,000 yearling.

---

Open mares are selling ridiculusly cheap.

Olin Gentry, as agent, just bought 16-year-old St. Helens Shadow for $19,000. She is the dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Officer.

As DRF's Frank Mitchell just said to me, "Open mares ... it's astonishing what they won't bring."

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Keeneland January: Day Two

The Azeri circus is over, and horse trading has resumed here in Lexington.

This sale feels a lot like the November sale, except the stock is weaker and decreased expectations have taken some of the sting out of the declines.

In most cases the sellers and consignors have done a good job adjusting their reserves, as evidenced by yesterday's buy-back rate of 26.5%, which was an improvement on opening day last year (33%).

There is widespread recognition that mares are available for a discount, but there just aren't that many operations in a position to capitalize.

I thought the buyers of Island Fashion (Katsumi Yoshida) and Almonsoon (Southern Equine Sables) picked up a couple great broodmare prospects. Reports are that Island Fashion's first foal, a Storm Cat filly that will sell this fall, is a nice one. And Almonsoon is just a beautiful mare in pedigree and physical. Both would have brought over $1-million had they sold during the last couple years.

The first mare on my short list for today (Hip 473, Lady Attack) just sold for $105,000 to Hill 'n' Dale Bloodstock. I'd classify that one as a potential steal.

---

Consignors are (rightfully) scratching a lot of the horses, but the sale seems to have settled into a rhythm.

I just asked Hidden Brook's Sergio de Sousa how things were going, and I think his reply sums up the day pretty well on the selling side.

"They’re selling cheap, but we’re moving them. It’s hard to be too brave with the reserves."

Monday, January 12, 2009

Live blogging from Keeneland January

Things will get underway at the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale in about 30 minutes.

It's only slightly more scientific than the groundhog's shadow, but one of the ways I predict how well a horse sale will do is by where I have to park when I arrive. (Plenty of good parking available today.)

The question most people are asking is how much will Azeri bring? My guess -- and it is purely a guess -- is between $5-million and $8-million.

It shouldn't take too long to get a handle on the top end of the market. Hip 9, multiple graded winner Elusive Diva (in foal to Giant's Causeway) is one of the jewels of this catalog.

---

Elusive Diva just sold to Claiborne Farm for $825,000. It seemed like the auctioneers were working it pretty hard, but consignor Craig Bandoroff of Denali Stud was happy enough with the price.

The last time she went through the ring, Elusive Diva sold for $1.6-million (in foal to Distorted Humor)at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale. Of course she was five years old then and as Bandoroff told me, "It's like a new car. When you drive it off the lot, it loses value."

---

Multiple Grade 1 winner Island Fashion is headed for Japan. Representatives of Katsumi Yoshida just bought her for $950,000, a bit of a bargain for the magnificent, multiple Grade 1 winner, in foal to Ghostzapper.

Island Fashion was bred and raised at Pope McLean's Crestwood Farm in Lexington for Jeff Nielsen's Everest Stables. Pope was definitely sad to see Island Fashion go. Crestwood has done a great job developing Everest's homebred stable.

---

The value on the buying end definitely seems to be with the mares. I might have to revise my estimate on Azeri, as I was off by about 20% on both Elusive Diva and Island Fashion.

---

It's official, Azeri has RNA'd for $4.4-million.

The back ring was packed with people trying to get a look at the Horse of the Year (and the potential bidding war that never developed).

It looked like few if any of the big outfits raised their hands. Neither Darley, Shadwell, nor Southern Equine appeared to enter the bidding. Coolmore put in a few bids but turned away at some point.

An amazing race mare with a correct, well-balanced frame, I can only imagine two things worked against Azeri: a somewhat obscure pedigree and the ridiculous reserve Michael Paulson placed on her first foal at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale ($7.7-million RNA, with no live money anywhere close).

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Jackson shut out in owner category


The finalists for the 2008 Eclipse Awards have been announced, and there were two surprises.

Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stable, majority owner of Horse of the Year candidate Curlin, was not even named a finalist for outstanding owner. The owner contest was perceived by many as a race between Stonestreet and IEAH Stables (owner of Big Brown and seven other Grade 1 winners in 2008).

I also thought Bob Baffert deserved consideration for the trainer award. He trained three Eclipse finalists in Midshipman, Indian Blessing, and Midnight Lute, but wasn’t a finalist in the trainer category.

The Eclipse Awards finalists (in alphabetical order):

Two-Year-Old Male
: Midshipman, Old Fashioned, Vineyard Haven
Two-Year-Old Filly: Dream Empress, Maram, Stardom Bound
Three-Year-Old Male: Big Brown, Colonel John, Raven’s Pass
Three-Year-Old Filly: Eight Belles, Music Note, Proud Spell
Older Male: Commentator, Curlin, Einstein (BRZ)
Older Female: Cocoa Beach (CHI), Ginger Punch, Zenyatta
Male Sprinter: Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Street Boss
Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing, Intangaroo, Ventura
Male Turf Horse: Conduit (IRE), Einstein (BRZ), Grand Couturier (GB)
Female Turf Horse: Cocoa Beach (CHI), Forever Together, Goldikova (IRE)
Steeplechase Horse: Be Certain, Good Night Shirt, Sovereign Duty
Owner: Godolphin Racing, IEAH Stables, Stronach Stables
Breeder: Adena Springs, Stonerside Stable, WinStar Farm
Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Richard Dutrow, Jr., Bobby Frankel
Jockey: Robby Albarado, Rafael Bejarano, Garrett Gomez
Apprentice Jockey: Inez Karlsson, Pascacio Lopez, Abel Mariano