Ranking the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Races by entertainment value, in reverse order:
A well-meant, poorly executed idea:
The “Marathon”
In what universe is 1 3/4 miles on the dirt (or synthetic) a championship division? Who is this race for? Judging by the first two winners (Muhannak and Man of Iron) it is for undistinguished European handicap horses. Hands down, the worst of the new Breeders’ Cup races.
Developing stories:
Turf Sprint: The popularity explosion of turf sprints among America’s racing secretaries has reached epidemic status, and there is no cure in sight. I will be rooting for the filly Rose Catherine to run this field off their feet, if for no other reason than it might head off creation of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint (G3) in 2012.
Filly & Mare Sprint: I liked it better when our best female sprinters went in the BC Sprint. But what this year’s F&M Sprint lacks in star power, it makes up for in depth. Prediction: the favorite will be 3-to-1 and this will be termed “a great betting race” by the commentators.
Dirt Mile: This division makes sense in theory, but it will steal some very good horses from the Sprint every year and might also hurt the Classic. The overlap created by the new races will be exaggerated in this era of shrinking foal crops.
Down year:
Sprint: The additions of the Filly & Mare Sprint and the Dirt Mile have really hurt this race, which also suffered from injuries to top contenders Majesticperfection and Discreetly Mine.
Juvenile Fillies: Injuries and a lack of anything truly outstanding makes this a sub-par edition of a historically great race.
Getting there:
The Juvenile Turf races: It seems the juvenile turf races top many people’s lists of new Breeders’ Cup races we didn’t need, but I disagree because:
A) I love turf racing
B) Unlike the Marathon, the juvenile turf races are catching on. Europeans trainers are supporting the races with talented horses, albeit a cut below their best. And the two-year-old turf division is developing in America.
If anything, combine the juvenile turf races into one. The filly turf race looks more compelling than the male version this year. Winter Memories is star material, and I’ve loved Kathmanblu ever since she closed for second in the PG Johnson at Saratoga (which this year featured one of the most speed biased turf courses I have ever seen)
Lives up to the Breeders’ Cup name
Ladies Classic: Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck takes on elders. Worth seeing in the theater. (Name should be changed back to Distaff though.)
Turf: Quietly, this race drew the top rated turf horse in the world, Workforce, plus Arc de Triomphe troubled fourth-place finisher Behkabad. Sleeper Al Khali could be the U.S.’s best hope to hit the board.
Potentially great
Filly & Mare Turf: 2009 winner Midday is better than ever, winning three Group 1’s in a row. Her competition includes French Group 1 winner Plumania and Japanese Group 1 winner Red Desire. Not to mention 2008 winner Forever Together, the improving three-year-old Harmonious, and many others.
Juvenile: For the first time since 2005, the winners of all five Grade 1 North American two-year-old races (for open company) meet in the Juvenile. Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova are potential stars, and I love the way Jaycito was striding at the wire in the Norfolk Stakes (G1). 2011 Triple Crown preview.
Hall of Fame
Mile: Goldikova is one of the best turf milers of all time, and this race drew a great field. Brilliant three-year-old Sydney’s Candy should be all alone on the lead, with Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Paco Boy, and Proviso revving up behind, waiting for the right time to pounce.
Goldikova has faced the difficult, ambitious career path that I wish Zenyatta had. She has won seven open company Grade 1’s to Zenyatta’s one, and has traveled the world. But I still expect the Mile will finish second in terms of drama and emotional impact to…
The Classic: The Classic stretch run is likely to be the moment of the year. And the winner is likely to be Horse of the Year.
A mare winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice and finishing her career a perfect 20-for-20? Unlike the 2009 result, that truly would be “un-be-leeevable.”
Showing posts with label horse racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label horse racing. Show all posts
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Stable Ground: Yearling market shows signs of recovery
Since 2006 when the Thoroughbred auction industry reached its peak, total sales, average price, and median have declined every year at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
All three of those metrics increased in 2010, a year in which most market players are just hoping for some stability .
There are a lot of ways to judge a horse sale. To me, the most important stat at Keeneland this year was the 3.3% increase in total sales.
That growth came despite a catalog that was 332 horses smaller and an 80% decline in spending from 2009 leading buyer Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, whom the industry has relied on so heavily.
Certainly, the picture at Keeneland was not all rosy. Commercial breeders took it on the chin for the second consecutive year. Only 13% of the yearlings in the sale sold profitably according to Thoroughbred Times’ estimates.
Having paid the pre-bubble-burst stud fees of 2008 and forced to sell into a recession -- commercial breeders were up against it. But there is some good news to report in this arena.
Although costs of production remain too high, stud fees are becoming more reasonable. Combined with decreased supply of yearlings, the economic picture for commercial breeders should improve in 2011 and beyond.
The market downturn also has commercial breeders thinking more about the quality of mares they breed and the end result of their matings -- producing a good racehorse. (perhaps a side effect of having to race their buy-backs?)
Buy-back rate decreased slightly to 26.7% this year. Combining outs and buy-backs, the amount of inventory sellers were stuck with after the sale declined by 11.4%. And inventory is the enemy, especially considering how much it costs to carry a horse another year or two.
In order to recover from a recession, the market has to hit bottom. Given this year's progress, it appears the bottom of the yearling market was 2009.
It’s no longer getting worse. In 2010, that’s reason for optimism.
All three of those metrics increased in 2010, a year in which most market players are just hoping for some stability .
There are a lot of ways to judge a horse sale. To me, the most important stat at Keeneland this year was the 3.3% increase in total sales.
That growth came despite a catalog that was 332 horses smaller and an 80% decline in spending from 2009 leading buyer Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, whom the industry has relied on so heavily.
Certainly, the picture at Keeneland was not all rosy. Commercial breeders took it on the chin for the second consecutive year. Only 13% of the yearlings in the sale sold profitably according to Thoroughbred Times’ estimates.
Having paid the pre-bubble-burst stud fees of 2008 and forced to sell into a recession -- commercial breeders were up against it. But there is some good news to report in this arena.
Although costs of production remain too high, stud fees are becoming more reasonable. Combined with decreased supply of yearlings, the economic picture for commercial breeders should improve in 2011 and beyond.
The market downturn also has commercial breeders thinking more about the quality of mares they breed and the end result of their matings -- producing a good racehorse. (perhaps a side effect of having to race their buy-backs?)
Buy-back rate decreased slightly to 26.7% this year. Combining outs and buy-backs, the amount of inventory sellers were stuck with after the sale declined by 11.4%. And inventory is the enemy, especially considering how much it costs to carry a horse another year or two.
In order to recover from a recession, the market has to hit bottom. Given this year's progress, it appears the bottom of the yearling market was 2009.
It’s no longer getting worse. In 2010, that’s reason for optimism.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Cutting stakes purses at Arlington and the new simulcast market
When the press release came in last Friday afternoon, I was shaking my head – “Arlington Park trims $725,000 from stakes purses.”
I have a soft spot for Arlington. Located in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, Arlington is a modern, majestic facility with great sight lines, immaculately maintained grounds, good customer service, and one day a year of world class racing.
If you enjoy turf racing, a live visit on Arlington Million day carries my strongest recommendation.
Unfortunately, for much of the other 90 days of Arlington’s meet, the racing product does not live up to the facility. Low purses are the primary problem.
But faced with an approximate 20% decline in out-of-state handle so far at its 2010 meeting, Arlington had to do something. The decision came down to cutting overnight purses or trimming the stakes program.
In a joint decision with the Illinois Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association, Arlington decided to decrease the purses of 11 stakes – nine of them graded – and cancel another. Untouched by the changes were the three Arlington Million Day Grade 1’s and Arlington’s substantial Illinois-bred stakes program. Click here for the original story and the list of changes.
The decrease in graded stakes purse money at Arlington is part of a disturbing national trend. It is not easy to breed or buy a graded stakes horse, and the expenses of a racing stable are considerable. Owners should reap a considerable financial reward for winning a graded race. Does the 60% winner’s share of $100,000 for a Grade 3 or $150,000 for a Grade 2 cut it?
Earlier this week, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote a story that suggested the purse decreases could cost Arlington an appearance by 2008 champion female sprinter Informed Decision.
I spoke with Arlington President Roy Arnold on Wednesday about the difficult decision his track faced and a number of national issues. Arnold said the primary reason for the drop in out-of-state handle was a three-to-four week period during which Arlington’s signal was not offered in New York.
Arnold: When New York City OTB was not making statutory payments and using bankruptcy to justify that, New York racing officials took some steps, including ceasing to approve out-of-state simulcast contracts. It was an internal New York issue, and we were one of the fist tracks to fall victim to it.
It was not helpful to be cut out of the biggest pari-mutuel market in the country. We were not alone, but when you’re trying to get momentum early in a meet, it can affect you disproportionately. It affected our pool sizes, and that probably affected the decisions of some bigger gamblers who look for a certain pool size to play. We had planned on a drop of 5 to 10% due to national conditions, but there was no way to predict this.
Arnold said another factor at work is the decreased racing schedule for the less-is-more super meet experiment at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, which has been very successful at drawing out-of-state simulcast bets.
Arnold: When Monmouth and other tracks who do not have gaming announced they were going to consolidate their schedules, cutting Thursdays from their live schedule, my initial response was good! Because I’m operating on Thursday and it’s a chance for me to gain handle.
But here’s what I think is happening. Race fans are first and foremost local, then national. That’s my observation in Illinois definitely. We have a very robust fan base, one of the best in the country, but when there is not local Illinois content, they do not come and bet out-of-state simulcasts unless it’s a big event.
So as racing jurisdictions consolidate their live race dates, their fan wagering is declining on out-of-state product because few of those people are going to the parlors or the track to bet when there is no live product. They’re turning into weekend-only players.
Even though Arlington is still doing very well on Thursdays – we’re one of the top three tracks that day and have been for the last few years – we’re still down from last year.
I asked Arnold if he thought Arlington is one of the many tracks losing out in the simulcast wars to Monmouth, which has enjoyed a serious upgrade in field quality and size thanks to its experimental higher purse structure.
Arnold: I think the jury is still out on Monmouth’s approach in the long term. What we think we’ve seen is the interest in Monmouth is overall driving the market higher on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, but it’s disproportionately going to Monmouth and negatively affecting the other players.
Now we’re all for what Monmouth is doing. From a marketing standpoint, Monmouth has drawn interest back to the sport. But is it sustainable? Belmont is still out-handling Monmouth, and Belmont’s horsemen are earning what’s being paid out. Monmouth’s horsemen are not.
I’m a little bit concerned about others following suit, consolidating dates further, and not recognizing we’re moving our core players from five or six days a week to three. This consolidation of race dates represents a major change in the market…
The latest report shows that 29% of our purse money nationally is coming from enhanced gaming. That is really disturbing. I believe in sound business principles. We can’t be looking for a silver bullet. I think at the end of this year there will be a lot to discuss at the racing symposium.
Here is what Arnold had to say regarding the decision to cut the stakes purses instead of overnight races.
Arnold: Bottom line, we were given a choice between a reduction in the stakes program – to the minimum purse levels to maintain the current grades – or to decrease purses for the horsemen that provide 95% of our races.
We want to do everything we can to maintain purse level for those horsemen who stable here. So that meant we only had one place to look – the stakes program. It was a clear decision.
Couldn’t the purse cuts further lower the quality of stakes fields at Arlington?
Arnold: We love Mr. Sheppard and we certainly hope he comes and runs here with Informed Decision. But the case can be made that if you have a strong horse that takes a pass, you might actually end up with more horses. I would prefer to have Informed Decision here. But the reality is if we lose her, we might go from a good 6 or 7-horse field up to a wide open 10 or 12. From a wagering perspective, it could actually be better for us.
We think we’re a great place to run. You see a Rachel Alexandra run some place because the distance and time is right based on the larger goals for their campaign. Our condition book hasn’t changed. The horsemen who were looking at a race here, the purse money is only one and maybe not even the major factor in their decision to run here. And if it’s a turf race, we still think we’re in a predominant position as far as offering the best turf track in the country. A lot of horsemen run with us because they like Arlington and they like being treated first class. None of those things have changed.
While siding with the local horsemen on the purse issue, Arnold stressed to them the importance of field size.
Arnold: We used this opportunity to remind our horsemen that the nature of the pari-mutuel system is that you earn purse money as you go along, and field size is the most important factor. There’s no getting around it.
You must have a race card that provides the wagering public with the opportunities they’re seeking – not only adequate field sizes but interesting propositions in the multi-race wagers. If you can card consistently good field sizes and place the races properly – turf races and allowance races for example – on a day-to-day basis, the public will wager with you.
The good news is that our field sizes are coming back remarkably. We have an average field size of nine (today), and on Friday our average field size is ten.
Looking to the future, Illinois racing is still waiting for casino impact fee money the state legislature approved years ago.
Arnold: We’ve got $17-18-million currently in escrow for the purse account pending the outcome of an appeal by the casinos. That’s very frustrating to have that much money sitting in an account that has been earmarked for us to offset the impact the casino industry has had on he horse racing, yet we cannot access the money.
We’re going into the fifth year of that law and we continue to work our way through the legal process to gain access to those funds. As much as there is a dark cloud right now, we’re looking for a silver lining, and we think by maintaining solidarity with our horsemen we can power through to next year. Despite everything I’m still optimistic there is a future for Thoroughbred racing.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Belmont selection: ICE BOX
Ice Box is the fastest horse in this edition of the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he has a legitimate 12-furlong pedigree. His dam won going 1 ½ miles on the turf, his dam’s sire Tabasco Cat won the Belmont, and his sire’s sire A.P. Indy also was a Belmont winner.
Interactif is the other horse in this race with a Belmont quality pedigree, and he should be a big price. Interactif comes into the race off a freshening for trainer Todd Pletcher, who does some of his best work off the layoff.
Stately Victor is a question mark on fast dirt, but the price will be right. Still wondering if he is as good as his 4 ¼-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) appeared.
In vertical wagers, I would also use Fly Down, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and the two "Dude" horses underneath.
Interactif is the other horse in this race with a Belmont quality pedigree, and he should be a big price. Interactif comes into the race off a freshening for trainer Todd Pletcher, who does some of his best work off the layoff.
Stately Victor is a question mark on fast dirt, but the price will be right. Still wondering if he is as good as his 4 ¼-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) appeared.
In vertical wagers, I would also use Fly Down, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and the two "Dude" horses underneath.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
A look back: Make Music For Me
One of the things I like about covering the two-year-old sales is the ability to look back at the training preview for lessons in hindsight.
Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).
I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.
Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.
Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.
Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.
Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?
Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).
I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.
Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.
Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.
Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.
Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?
Monday, April 19, 2010
Breeders' Cup should continue to rotate venue
Perhaps as early as this Thursday the Breeders' Cup board will make an important decision about the event's future.
If Breeders' Cup names a long-term or permanent host track (rumored to be Santa Anita), it will be a departure from one of the Cup's best traditions - a rotating venue.
A roaming Breeders' Cup has a communal feel to it, giving the whole industry a sense of ownership. A permanent site threatens to make it parochial.
The logical move for the immediate future is a geographically balanced, four-year rotation that roughly mirrors what the Cup has been doing the last 26 years: Churchill Downs-Belmont Park-Santa Anita-rotating random site.
This plan shares the year-end championship between the Midwest, East Coast, and West Coast, with an opportunity every fourth year to expand internationally or spotlight other American tracks.
No track hosted the Cup for two consecutive years until Santa Anita in 2008-'09. It was a puzzling move considering the controversy surrounding Santa Anita's synthetic main track, which not only has drainage problems but so far has not yielded a single Breeders' Cup winner that previously raced on dirt, the surface favored by American racing for more than 200 years.
That decision cost the Breeders' Cup (and the sport) a potential all-time great moment had Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta settled the Horse of the Year debate on the track. Rachel's owner Jess Jackson kept her out of the 2009 Cup because of Santa Anita's surface.
Imagine if Major League baseball announced the World Series will be played at Fenway Park every year, and they were replacing the stadium's dirt and grass with a new synthetic material that would favor a certain type of ballplayer. Or the NFL decided the Super Bowl always will be played at the Louisiana Superdome.
The Boston Red Sox and New Orleans Saints only make it to the championship once in a while. Horses based at a permanent Breeders' Cup site will be there every year. It would create a home field advantage that is unprecedented in major sports.
At a time when the industry needs to come together, an end to the Breeders' Cup rotation could further splinter it.
Rotating sites is part of the Cup's identity. If it aint broke, don't fix it.
If Breeders' Cup names a long-term or permanent host track (rumored to be Santa Anita), it will be a departure from one of the Cup's best traditions - a rotating venue.
A roaming Breeders' Cup has a communal feel to it, giving the whole industry a sense of ownership. A permanent site threatens to make it parochial.
The logical move for the immediate future is a geographically balanced, four-year rotation that roughly mirrors what the Cup has been doing the last 26 years: Churchill Downs-Belmont Park-Santa Anita-rotating random site.
This plan shares the year-end championship between the Midwest, East Coast, and West Coast, with an opportunity every fourth year to expand internationally or spotlight other American tracks.
No track hosted the Cup for two consecutive years until Santa Anita in 2008-'09. It was a puzzling move considering the controversy surrounding Santa Anita's synthetic main track, which not only has drainage problems but so far has not yielded a single Breeders' Cup winner that previously raced on dirt, the surface favored by American racing for more than 200 years.
That decision cost the Breeders' Cup (and the sport) a potential all-time great moment had Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta settled the Horse of the Year debate on the track. Rachel's owner Jess Jackson kept her out of the 2009 Cup because of Santa Anita's surface.
Imagine if Major League baseball announced the World Series will be played at Fenway Park every year, and they were replacing the stadium's dirt and grass with a new synthetic material that would favor a certain type of ballplayer. Or the NFL decided the Super Bowl always will be played at the Louisiana Superdome.
The Boston Red Sox and New Orleans Saints only make it to the championship once in a while. Horses based at a permanent Breeders' Cup site will be there every year. It would create a home field advantage that is unprecedented in major sports.
At a time when the industry needs to come together, an end to the Breeders' Cup rotation could further splinter it.
Rotating sites is part of the Cup's identity. If it aint broke, don't fix it.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
My 50 cents
While researching a story about Keeneland's plan to offer 50-cent pick three wagers , I came across an interesting statistic on the growth of Keeneland's pick four pools since the minimum was reduced to 50 cents.
Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.
The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.
But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.
Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)
In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)
Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.
"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."
That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.
If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.
The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.
Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.
The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.
But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.
Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)
In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)
Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.
"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."
That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.
If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.
The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Did Jackson overreact in pulling Rachel from Apple Blossom?
Going into the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the signals from Rachel Alexandra’s connections were clear: she was not 100% fit for her first start in more than six months.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
New Jersey takes a bold step forward
The theory that horse racing will never get its act together on a national scale because the industry players are too busy looking out for their own bottom lines (or existence in some cases) has proven true time and again.
But a piece of news from New Jersey, where Monmouth Park will focus on quality instead of quantity in a shortened 50-day 2010 meeting, has snapped me out of my blogging funk.
Under the plan approved by the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association yesterday, Monmouth will race Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays (plus a few selected holiday Mondays) from May 22 until Sept. 11. If projections of $50-million in purse money spread over 50 dates hold true, Monmouth will have the highest purse structure in America.
The horsemen, who in many states have pushed for year-round racing that has diluted the sport to the point of oblivion, should be commended for going in a different direction.
I believe the future of horse racing in America is less dates, higher quality racing, bigger fields, and lower takeout – all in a beautiful, fan-friendly atmosphere that celebrates racing as a special event.
Despite the horrendous rain-soaked conditions Monmouth experienced when it hosted the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, I came away from my first and only visit to the Oceanport track with a favorable impression.
It’s a charming property with a loyal local fan base. And although its trifecta takeout of 25% is too high, 17% on WPS wagers and 15% on the pick 4 makes Monmouth one of the good guys in terms of giving gamblers a fighting chance to make a profit (and a reason to feed the pari-mutuel pools that fuel the sport’s purse structure).
What is good for gamblers is good for the sport.
Hopefully the same will be said about the new vision for New Jersey racing.
But a piece of news from New Jersey, where Monmouth Park will focus on quality instead of quantity in a shortened 50-day 2010 meeting, has snapped me out of my blogging funk.
Under the plan approved by the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association yesterday, Monmouth will race Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays (plus a few selected holiday Mondays) from May 22 until Sept. 11. If projections of $50-million in purse money spread over 50 dates hold true, Monmouth will have the highest purse structure in America.
The horsemen, who in many states have pushed for year-round racing that has diluted the sport to the point of oblivion, should be commended for going in a different direction.
I believe the future of horse racing in America is less dates, higher quality racing, bigger fields, and lower takeout – all in a beautiful, fan-friendly atmosphere that celebrates racing as a special event.
Despite the horrendous rain-soaked conditions Monmouth experienced when it hosted the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, I came away from my first and only visit to the Oceanport track with a favorable impression.
It’s a charming property with a loyal local fan base. And although its trifecta takeout of 25% is too high, 17% on WPS wagers and 15% on the pick 4 makes Monmouth one of the good guys in terms of giving gamblers a fighting chance to make a profit (and a reason to feed the pari-mutuel pools that fuel the sport’s purse structure).
What is good for gamblers is good for the sport.
Hopefully the same will be said about the new vision for New Jersey racing.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Marathonical
Reporting from Saratoga Race Course, where I'm lucky to be today and tomorrow while passing time between the Fasig-Tipton select yearling sale and this weekend's New York-bred preferred sale.
I spent most of the last two nights shadowing Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum at the boutique sale, where he bought six yearlings for $6,350,000 and almost singelhandedly helped the sale defy sagging global economic trends. There's something surreal about standing next to a Middle Eastern monarch who is wearing blue jeans and a white long-sleeve shirt.
Sheikh Mohammed declined to talk to the media during the sale, but interracted with buyers, sellers, and even members of the public. I've never had a chance to interview him or get a sense of the type of person he is, but one of my companions at the sale offered this gem, "For an autocratic ruler, he seems like a pretty good guy."
Today it's good to get back to the track, a reminder of what those million-dollar yearlings and two-year-olds in training are supposed to be able to do.
I got here in time for the fourth race, a ridiculous non-winners of one optional claimer at two miles on the main track.
Nine horses were entered, but two scrached at the gate. Of the seven remaining runners, one bolted to the outside fence around the first of three turns and was eventually eased. Another horse was pulled up on the far turn.
Two others were distanced by about 30 lengths, barely making it to the wire while still galloping. Essentially, three horses finished the race.
I understand the desire to reward stamina in the breed, but very few American racetracks are properly configured for marathon races and even fewer of our horses can get the trip.
I spent most of the last two nights shadowing Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum at the boutique sale, where he bought six yearlings for $6,350,000 and almost singelhandedly helped the sale defy sagging global economic trends. There's something surreal about standing next to a Middle Eastern monarch who is wearing blue jeans and a white long-sleeve shirt.
Sheikh Mohammed declined to talk to the media during the sale, but interracted with buyers, sellers, and even members of the public. I've never had a chance to interview him or get a sense of the type of person he is, but one of my companions at the sale offered this gem, "For an autocratic ruler, he seems like a pretty good guy."
Today it's good to get back to the track, a reminder of what those million-dollar yearlings and two-year-olds in training are supposed to be able to do.
I got here in time for the fourth race, a ridiculous non-winners of one optional claimer at two miles on the main track.
Nine horses were entered, but two scrached at the gate. Of the seven remaining runners, one bolted to the outside fence around the first of three turns and was eventually eased. Another horse was pulled up on the far turn.
Two others were distanced by about 30 lengths, barely making it to the wire while still galloping. Essentially, three horses finished the race.
I understand the desire to reward stamina in the breed, but very few American racetracks are properly configured for marathon races and even fewer of our horses can get the trip.
Monday, July 13, 2009
McPeek targeting Saratoga for Striking Dancer
Before trainer Wesley Ward made his historic raid on the Royal Ascot meeting with Jealous Again and before Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 20 ¼ lengths, another American-based filly was near the top of my horses to watch list for 2009.
Striking Dancer, a three-year-old Smart Strike filly out of the Danehill (Ire) mare Dancing Shoes, made her 2009 debut in a turf allowance at Gulfstream Park on February 25. Steadied on the turn and momentarily trapped behind a wall of horses, Striking Dancer and jockey Kent Desormeaux shot up the inside, steered outside and ran down the leader with a burst of late energy.
Trainer Ken McPeek briefly toyed with taking Striking Dancer to compete in a European classic, but an ankle injury sent her to the bench. Now three works into her comeback, McPeek is targeting Saratoga for Striking Dancer’s return.
I recently caught up with McPeek and asked him what he thought of the filly he ferreted out of the sixth day of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale for $110,000.
“She’s very good. We have to get her ready again, but she acts like she’s a graded stakes quality filly,” McPeek said. “We just have to get the time and get her ready. I think she will be competitive at a high level.”
Both of Striking Dancer's wins have come on grass, but McPeek thinks she has potential on dirt. He said he would have liked to run her in the Kentucky Oaks.
“I think she’d be fine on the dirt. We just haven’t had the opportunity to get her there,” McPeek said. “I think she might have given Rachel at least a test in the Oaks, but timing is everything and she just wasn’t ready.”
Striking Dancer was bred in Kentucky by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings and was consigned by Warrendale Sales at the Keeneland September sale.
Striking Dancer (#4, green hat, blue polka dots)
Gulfstream, 2-25-09, Race 8
Friday, June 26, 2009
Breeders’ Cup: Our event is still going to be great
Breeders’ Cup officials hope Jess Jackson will change his mind about holding Rachel Alexandra out of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
But even if Jackson sticks to his position that Rachel will never again race on a synthetic surface, the Breeders’ Cup, at least publicly, is not sweating the decision.
“Our event is still going to be a great event,” said Breeders’ Cup Chief Marketing Officer Peter Land. “We’ll still have 80,000 to 100,000 people come. It’s still going to be a great television show and a great simulcast product.”
Jackson disagrees with the Breeders’ Cup’s decision to hold the event at Santa Anita Park, which has a synthetic Pro-Ride surface, for a second consecutive year. Jackson does not think the results of synthetic races are legitimate, nor does he think synthetics are safer than a well-maintained dirt surface.
Land and the management at Breeders’ Cup hope Jackson will change his mind before November 6-7.
“First of all it’s early. It’s only June, so we would hope that over the course of the summer it would be a shame if Jess didn’t have a change of heart,” Land said. “We obviously respect Jess and everything he’s done for the sport. He’s certainly a great sportsman. But more than anything else, we were surprised he would make an announcement this far out.”
Thanks to the synthetic experiment, American horses currently are competing on three different surfaces – dirt, turf, and synthetic. But no racetrack offers all three, so no matter where the Breeders’ Cup is held, it risks losing stars from one of them.
Land said he does not think surface should be that big of a deal.
“Some years it’s going to favor different horses on different tracks. It’s not unlike the PGA championships, some years the course will favor long hitters and some years it will favor putters,” Land said. “I think many sports in general have this built in testing mechanism that says if you’re a great champion you can persevere under conditions that might not be ideal.”
It would be nice if Land’s comparison with golf worked, but the reality is that very few horses are the same when they switch surfaces. Some great dirt horses have struggled to compete on the synthetics or turf. Just as many great European turf stars are a shadow of themselves when they try dirt.
When Breeders’ Cup committed to Santa Anita for two years it was a controversial decision, not only because no track had ever hosted two consecutive Cups, but because of how new and untested the synthetics were. Until the current American experiment, nowhere in the world had Grade 1 races been contested and world champions crowned on a synthetic track. Even in Europe, where synthetics are preferred to dirt, all the Group 1 races are on turf, compared to just a handful of Group 3’s on the synth.
Last year Europeans Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator ran first and second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the first time in the race’s 25-year history that Europeans swept the exacta. Jackson’s entrant in the race – Horse of the Year Curlin – finished a disappointing fourth. Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, which anecdotally at least favors turf horses over dirt horses, was seen as playing a major role in that result.
As the move to synthetics has alienated the connections of some American horses, it has won favor with the Europeans and helped Breeders’ Cup in its ongoing quest to become a true world championship. Land said he believes the net result is positive.
“We’re gonna have 150 of the best horses in the world competing this year. Are we going to lose a few American horses? Probably. But on balance, we might end up with more than 30 horses from Europe this year, and we’re a global championship televised all over the world,” Land said. “To have more horses from outside the United States competing I think is a good thing for the Breeders’ Cup and for the sport.”
But even if Jackson sticks to his position that Rachel will never again race on a synthetic surface, the Breeders’ Cup, at least publicly, is not sweating the decision.
“Our event is still going to be a great event,” said Breeders’ Cup Chief Marketing Officer Peter Land. “We’ll still have 80,000 to 100,000 people come. It’s still going to be a great television show and a great simulcast product.”
Jackson disagrees with the Breeders’ Cup’s decision to hold the event at Santa Anita Park, which has a synthetic Pro-Ride surface, for a second consecutive year. Jackson does not think the results of synthetic races are legitimate, nor does he think synthetics are safer than a well-maintained dirt surface.
Land and the management at Breeders’ Cup hope Jackson will change his mind before November 6-7.
“First of all it’s early. It’s only June, so we would hope that over the course of the summer it would be a shame if Jess didn’t have a change of heart,” Land said. “We obviously respect Jess and everything he’s done for the sport. He’s certainly a great sportsman. But more than anything else, we were surprised he would make an announcement this far out.”
Thanks to the synthetic experiment, American horses currently are competing on three different surfaces – dirt, turf, and synthetic. But no racetrack offers all three, so no matter where the Breeders’ Cup is held, it risks losing stars from one of them.
Land said he does not think surface should be that big of a deal.
“Some years it’s going to favor different horses on different tracks. It’s not unlike the PGA championships, some years the course will favor long hitters and some years it will favor putters,” Land said. “I think many sports in general have this built in testing mechanism that says if you’re a great champion you can persevere under conditions that might not be ideal.”
It would be nice if Land’s comparison with golf worked, but the reality is that very few horses are the same when they switch surfaces. Some great dirt horses have struggled to compete on the synthetics or turf. Just as many great European turf stars are a shadow of themselves when they try dirt.
When Breeders’ Cup committed to Santa Anita for two years it was a controversial decision, not only because no track had ever hosted two consecutive Cups, but because of how new and untested the synthetics were. Until the current American experiment, nowhere in the world had Grade 1 races been contested and world champions crowned on a synthetic track. Even in Europe, where synthetics are preferred to dirt, all the Group 1 races are on turf, compared to just a handful of Group 3’s on the synth.
Last year Europeans Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator ran first and second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the first time in the race’s 25-year history that Europeans swept the exacta. Jackson’s entrant in the race – Horse of the Year Curlin – finished a disappointing fourth. Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, which anecdotally at least favors turf horses over dirt horses, was seen as playing a major role in that result.
As the move to synthetics has alienated the connections of some American horses, it has won favor with the Europeans and helped Breeders’ Cup in its ongoing quest to become a true world championship. Land said he believes the net result is positive.
“We’re gonna have 150 of the best horses in the world competing this year. Are we going to lose a few American horses? Probably. But on balance, we might end up with more than 30 horses from Europe this year, and we’re a global championship televised all over the world,” Land said. “To have more horses from outside the United States competing I think is a good thing for the Breeders’ Cup and for the sport.”
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Night racing report
I was one of the 28,011 who packed into Churchill Downs for Friday's historic night racing card.
A few comments:
-Snafus aside, the increased handle and attendance are proof that night racing can work. The night had an electric feel to it even without a stakes race or marquee horse on the card.
-Racing still matters in Kentucky. Night racing gave the fans a reason to come out, and a huge, demographically diverse crowd turned out for the party.
-Yet again, Churchill seemed unconcerned with the experience of the common fan, who paid $10 entry fee to experience sauna-like conditions and wait in unbearably long lines. The betting lines were long, but you could literally miss two races waiting for food or drink.
-I have never sweated so much at a racetrack in my life. My party was set up in a box underneath the grandstand overhang, where air circulation was less than ideal. Also, the volume and treble on the speakers in the grandstand were set way too high, doing no favors for track announcer Mark Johnson's between race chatter.
Night racing has a lot of potential, and the people supported it. But of those 28,000, how many will want to come back to experience those conditions anytime soon? Churchill must find a way to make the track a more enjoyable experience for everyday fans.
It was good to hear the announcement from Bill Carstanjen, Churchill's executive vice president and chief operating officer, about decreased prices and increased staffing for the June 26 and July 2 night cards.
“More than 28,000 turned out for the debut of night racing at Churchill Downs and the evening was a great success on most every level, but our track fell short in one important area of guest service, our fans have spoken to us about their disappointment and we have listened,” Carstanjen said. “Last Friday was a special and historic night at Churchill Downs and we hope that every fan that shared the evening with us will always carry wonderful memories of the evening. But many fans were clearly unhappy with the unacceptable level of service offered in beer lines throughout the track. We share their frustration, apologize for the experience and vow it will not happen again. We’re hoping all fans who were with us for the debut of night racing under the Twin Spires will be back with us again this Friday and on Thursday, July 2 and give us a chance to make racing under the lights at Churchill Downs truly special for everyone.”
A few comments:
-Snafus aside, the increased handle and attendance are proof that night racing can work. The night had an electric feel to it even without a stakes race or marquee horse on the card.
-Racing still matters in Kentucky. Night racing gave the fans a reason to come out, and a huge, demographically diverse crowd turned out for the party.
-Yet again, Churchill seemed unconcerned with the experience of the common fan, who paid $10 entry fee to experience sauna-like conditions and wait in unbearably long lines. The betting lines were long, but you could literally miss two races waiting for food or drink.
-I have never sweated so much at a racetrack in my life. My party was set up in a box underneath the grandstand overhang, where air circulation was less than ideal. Also, the volume and treble on the speakers in the grandstand were set way too high, doing no favors for track announcer Mark Johnson's between race chatter.
Night racing has a lot of potential, and the people supported it. But of those 28,000, how many will want to come back to experience those conditions anytime soon? Churchill must find a way to make the track a more enjoyable experience for everyday fans.
It was good to hear the announcement from Bill Carstanjen, Churchill's executive vice president and chief operating officer, about decreased prices and increased staffing for the June 26 and July 2 night cards.
“More than 28,000 turned out for the debut of night racing at Churchill Downs and the evening was a great success on most every level, but our track fell short in one important area of guest service, our fans have spoken to us about their disappointment and we have listened,” Carstanjen said. “Last Friday was a special and historic night at Churchill Downs and we hope that every fan that shared the evening with us will always carry wonderful memories of the evening. But many fans were clearly unhappy with the unacceptable level of service offered in beer lines throughout the track. We share their frustration, apologize for the experience and vow it will not happen again. We’re hoping all fans who were with us for the debut of night racing under the Twin Spires will be back with us again this Friday and on Thursday, July 2 and give us a chance to make racing under the lights at Churchill Downs truly special for everyone.”
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Beyer tweaks his formula
Andrew Beyer, the creator of the popular Beyer Speed Figures that appear in Daily Racing Form, has announced a change in the way he will calculate his figures for synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Arlington still in shock over Douglas injury
I called trainer Chris Block Monday afternoon to talk about Giant Oak’s impressive victory in the $150,000 Arlington Classic on Saturday, but that blog will have to wait.
The foremost thing on Block's and most people’s minds at Arlington Park is the tragic injury suffered by Rene Douglas in the Arlington Matron (G3).
The 42-year-old, six-time leading rider at Arlington faces a battle with paralysis after his mount Born to Be was bumped, clipped heels, and fell as the field turned for home.
“It’s affected the whole racetrack community a whole lot up here,” Block said. “Rene was a fan favorite and a horsemen’s favorite. We don’t have many great riders in Chicago right now, and we all looked forward to seeing him ride when he comes to town for the summer. We’re all holding out hope that things will get better and he might be able to walk.”
When I first started going to Arlington in the early and mid 1990s, the rider colony included jocks such as Pat Day, Shane Sellers, Jorge Velasquez, Mark Guidry, and Garrett Gomez. Looking back, I think the riders were better than the horses! I really didn’t know how good we had it.
Nationally the sport has suffered the retirement of a lot of great riders over the last ten years. The drop-off has hit the Chicago colony hard. When Douglas came to Arlington in 2001 he filled a void.
Already an accomplished veteran (he had been leading rider at Calder in '93 and won the ’96 Belmont Stakes on Editor’s Note), Douglas won 134 races his first season in Chicago, more than twice as many as any other rider. He quickly became the go-to jockey on the circuit, and as his mounts improved in quality, so did his confidence.
When Douglas was in the zone, he seemingly always had his mount in the right place at the right time. He particularly loved Arlington’s turf course, and he knew how to ride it as well as any jockey I’ve seen.
Watch how Douglas made it look easy in the 2007 Beverly D. Stakes (G1) on the #7 horse, 9-to-1 Royal Highness. It was the quintessential Douglas ride -- he saved ground, was tactically placed yet patient, and finished with a strong, well-timed move.
It's one of my lasting memories of Douglas, and one of many great wins he can look back on during his recovery.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Nicanor by 15!
Barbaro's full brother Nicanor won his turf debut by 15 lengths on Wednesday at Delaware Park, much to the delight of his legions of fans.
Has a maiden ever had a more loyal, rabid following?
Although the three-year-old Dynaformer colt ran well (and fairly fast) in his previous dirt races at Gulfstream Park, he clearly relished the move to turf and two turns in his fourth career start.
After pressing a first quarter in a reasonable :24.34 while three-wide, Nicanor and jockey Anna Napravnik took control of the race before the field hit the backstretch. Nicanor gradually pulled away in :49, 1:14.35, 1:39.86, and 1:46.31. (the course was rated firm, but it must have been a little on the deep side)
Neither the final time nor the final 5/16 in :31.96 seem particularly fast at face value, so the quality of the field he was facing probably played a big role in that margin of victory.
Still, it was a very nice effort, and Nicanor did everything that could have been expected and more. He is a stakes candidate now, and the rich summer turf races for three-year-olds are calling.
Trainer Michael Matz took a conservative stance immediately after the race, saying he would like to aim for a non-winners allowance race. see story
While there will be comparisons made between Barbaro's debut victory on the turf, which also came at Delaware, I wouldn't rate this performance on that level.
Barbaro pressed fairly quick fractions and flew home in :23.66, a fast final quarter for any turf horse, much less a front runner making his debut.
Of course, very few horses will ever live up to what Barbaro did in his seven-race career. But with the potential Nicanor showed today, and his dam La Ville Rouge spitting out good-looking full siblings to Barbaro each year, race fans can dream.
Nicanor's debut race replay
Barbaro's debut race replay
Has a maiden ever had a more loyal, rabid following?
Although the three-year-old Dynaformer colt ran well (and fairly fast) in his previous dirt races at Gulfstream Park, he clearly relished the move to turf and two turns in his fourth career start.
After pressing a first quarter in a reasonable :24.34 while three-wide, Nicanor and jockey Anna Napravnik took control of the race before the field hit the backstretch. Nicanor gradually pulled away in :49, 1:14.35, 1:39.86, and 1:46.31. (the course was rated firm, but it must have been a little on the deep side)
Neither the final time nor the final 5/16 in :31.96 seem particularly fast at face value, so the quality of the field he was facing probably played a big role in that margin of victory.
Still, it was a very nice effort, and Nicanor did everything that could have been expected and more. He is a stakes candidate now, and the rich summer turf races for three-year-olds are calling.
Trainer Michael Matz took a conservative stance immediately after the race, saying he would like to aim for a non-winners allowance race. see story
While there will be comparisons made between Barbaro's debut victory on the turf, which also came at Delaware, I wouldn't rate this performance on that level.
Barbaro pressed fairly quick fractions and flew home in :23.66, a fast final quarter for any turf horse, much less a front runner making his debut.
Of course, very few horses will ever live up to what Barbaro did in his seven-race career. But with the potential Nicanor showed today, and his dam La Ville Rouge spitting out good-looking full siblings to Barbaro each year, race fans can dream.
Nicanor's debut race replay
Barbaro's debut race replay
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Filly could elevate '09 Triple Crown
The Internet has been abuzz with mostly negative comments about Jess Jackson's purchase of Rachel Alexandra and the announcement that she is under consideration for the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Admittedly, it did not take a lot of imagination to buy the 20-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), after the race. It took a lot of money.
And no one liked to see trainer like Hal Wiggins lose the star filly he trained for the first ten races of her career. So the backlash was predictable, perhaps warranted on some level.
But Rachel Alexandra's sale could be very good for a sport struggling to regain its place in the national conscience.
Clashes between great competitors are celebrated in all sports. In racing they are too few and far between.
With the exception of the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup, and a handful of other races, many of our best horses spend the year avoiding each other while preserving their value upon retirement, which comes too soon for too many.
Rachel Alexandra's breeder and previous owner Dolphus Morrison was going to point her to the Acorn Stakes (G1), a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies on the Belmont Stakes (G1) undercard. The Acorn is a nice race and a conservative, logical spot, but it likely would have featured no more drama than the marvelous filly's morning workouts. Rachel Alexandra would have been 1-to-9 to crush the handful of rivals who showed up.
Not only was Morrison avoiding a matchup with colts under the admittedly less-than-ideal conditions the Triple Crown presents, he said he was looking out for the breeding value of those future stallions he did not want to chance trouncing!
"The Triple Crown races are for future stallions," said Morrison, definitely not quoting the condition book.
Jackson took the best dirt horse in the world -- two-time Horse of the Year Curlin -- and ran him on the grass because he wanted to find out if Curlin could make a historic run at the world's best grass race the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Jackson also ran Curlin on Santa Anita's experimental, synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) instead of keeping him on the dirt tracks he excelled on.
Jackson will not limit Rachel Alexandra's campaign based on a regard for his competitors' breeding values. Nor will he keep her in races restricted to females because "fillies should run against fillies," as Morrison suggested.
It was the filly Rags to Riches who upset Curlin in the 2007 Belmont in what is likely to go down as one of the best races of the era, perhaps ever.
The Triple Crown is racing's greatest stage. If this year's Preakness features a matchup between one of the fastest fillies of modern times, an improbable 50-1 longshot who made the cover of Sports Illustrated, and the three colts who finished behind him in a blanket finish in the Derby slop, sports fans and racing will be the winners.
Succeed or fail, that kind of competitive spirit should be saluted.
Admittedly, it did not take a lot of imagination to buy the 20-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), after the race. It took a lot of money.
And no one liked to see trainer like Hal Wiggins lose the star filly he trained for the first ten races of her career. So the backlash was predictable, perhaps warranted on some level.
But Rachel Alexandra's sale could be very good for a sport struggling to regain its place in the national conscience.
Clashes between great competitors are celebrated in all sports. In racing they are too few and far between.
With the exception of the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup, and a handful of other races, many of our best horses spend the year avoiding each other while preserving their value upon retirement, which comes too soon for too many.
Rachel Alexandra's breeder and previous owner Dolphus Morrison was going to point her to the Acorn Stakes (G1), a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies on the Belmont Stakes (G1) undercard. The Acorn is a nice race and a conservative, logical spot, but it likely would have featured no more drama than the marvelous filly's morning workouts. Rachel Alexandra would have been 1-to-9 to crush the handful of rivals who showed up.
Not only was Morrison avoiding a matchup with colts under the admittedly less-than-ideal conditions the Triple Crown presents, he said he was looking out for the breeding value of those future stallions he did not want to chance trouncing!
"The Triple Crown races are for future stallions," said Morrison, definitely not quoting the condition book.
Jackson took the best dirt horse in the world -- two-time Horse of the Year Curlin -- and ran him on the grass because he wanted to find out if Curlin could make a historic run at the world's best grass race the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Jackson also ran Curlin on Santa Anita's experimental, synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) instead of keeping him on the dirt tracks he excelled on.
Jackson will not limit Rachel Alexandra's campaign based on a regard for his competitors' breeding values. Nor will he keep her in races restricted to females because "fillies should run against fillies," as Morrison suggested.
It was the filly Rags to Riches who upset Curlin in the 2007 Belmont in what is likely to go down as one of the best races of the era, perhaps ever.
The Triple Crown is racing's greatest stage. If this year's Preakness features a matchup between one of the fastest fillies of modern times, an improbable 50-1 longshot who made the cover of Sports Illustrated, and the three colts who finished behind him in a blanket finish in the Derby slop, sports fans and racing will be the winners.
Succeed or fail, that kind of competitive spirit should be saluted.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Kicking in the afterburners
One day later I'm still trying to wrap my head around Mine That Bird's improbable Kentucky Derby (G1) victory.
For a little historical perspective, the Birdstone colt ran his final quarter mile in about :23.80 according to the official race chart. My research indicates that was tied for the fourth fastest final quarter in the Derby's 135-year history.
Secretariat owns the fastest final quarter, kicking home in :23.20 in the 1973 edition. Runner-up Sham came home in about :23.80.
Rumbo ran his final quarter in :23.40 in the 1980 derby, but still couldn't catch Genuine Risk. And 1964 Derby winner Northern Dancer scooted home in 24 flat, with runner-up Hill Rise gaining two lengths on the leader for an estimated final quarter in :23.60.
Secretariat, Sham, Hill Rise, and Rumbo all competed on dry, fast tracks, and Secretariat's time of 1:59.40 still stands as the record. Mine That Bird finished in 2:02.66, winning by 6 3/4 lengths in the slop.
One thing is for sure, Calvin Borel's fearless, rail-skimming ride on Mine That Bird was one for the ages.
For a little historical perspective, the Birdstone colt ran his final quarter mile in about :23.80 according to the official race chart. My research indicates that was tied for the fourth fastest final quarter in the Derby's 135-year history.
Secretariat owns the fastest final quarter, kicking home in :23.20 in the 1973 edition. Runner-up Sham came home in about :23.80.
Rumbo ran his final quarter in :23.40 in the 1980 derby, but still couldn't catch Genuine Risk. And 1964 Derby winner Northern Dancer scooted home in 24 flat, with runner-up Hill Rise gaining two lengths on the leader for an estimated final quarter in :23.60.
Secretariat, Sham, Hill Rise, and Rumbo all competed on dry, fast tracks, and Secretariat's time of 1:59.40 still stands as the record. Mine That Bird finished in 2:02.66, winning by 6 3/4 lengths in the slop.
One thing is for sure, Calvin Borel's fearless, rail-skimming ride on Mine That Bird was one for the ages.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Observations from the backstretch
After watching the workouts and gallops the last three days at Churchill Downs, two horses in particular have impressed me.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Racing must fix tote system
Amidst calls for technological upgrades to our antiquated tote system and better monitoring of wagering pools, the Association of Racing Commissioners International kicked off its annual meeting in Lexington on Tuesday.
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
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