Stately Victor: Polytrack fluke or classic contender?

There were audible groans as 40-to-1 longshot Stately Victor blew by the field and won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by a widening four lengths at Keeneland last Saturday.

Another flukey result in a graded stake on the Polytrack...

Even in a weak edition of the Blue Grass -- this year's nine-horse field contained three Grade 3 winners -- Stately Victor looked overmatched on paper.

But there was nothing flukey about the way he won. Bumped at the start and in traffic early, Stately Victor settled in sixth place. Turning for home he and jockey Alan Garcia went by Interactif, arguably the classiest member of the field going in, and set aim on the leaders.

Stately Victor ran the final three furlongs in a powerful 35-2 and galloped out far ahead of the field.

In hindsight, he should not have been 40-to-1 in the Blue Grass. Although his PPs are spotty, the hints were there:

--He debuted in a good maiden race at Saratoga on August 22. Breaking slowly from the rail, he finished second and was gaining on subsequent Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Winslow Homer at the wire. Stately Victor was just getting going in the final furlong of that seven-furlong race.

--In his second start he broke his maiden going 1 1/16 on the Saratoga turf course. Shooting through a hole on the rail, he drew off by 4 1/2 lengths for a great looking win.

Now comes the hard part to look past. Stately Victor produced two dull races to close out his two-year-old campaign and showed none of his prior good form in his first two races of 2010.

But in a non-winners of one allowance on the turf at Gulfstream Park on March 7, Stately Victor gave a clue that he might be ready to move forward. For much of the past winter Gulfstream's turf course was as speed biased a turf course as I have ever seen. In 10th place turning for home and in traffic, Stately Victor fell off the screen.

It was a hopeless position, but he reappeared near the wire, running like a wild horse to finish fifth, beaten 1 3/4 lengths but moving best of all.

Most people are completely discounting the result of the Blue Grass and Stately Victor's chances in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and perhaps for good reason. But Stately Victor will enter the Derby with improving form, an impressive win, and a strong pedigree (He's by Horse of the Year and BC Classic winner Ghostzapper, out of the Grade 1 winning Dynaformer mare Collect the Cash).

If he works well leading up to the Derby and is ignored at the windows again, I will be tempted to play him to at least hit the board.