Traditionally, the Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training is a place for pinhookers to make their biggest financial scores of the year with their best-bred, fastest horses.
Thanks to the struggling economy and an increasingly selective market for racehorses, those big profits evaporated for all but a handful of horsemen in 2009. On paper, the pinhookers escaped Calder on Tuesday with an estimated profit of $594,000. That ended a six-year streak during which profits averaged $11.4-million, and it was the worst result for pinhookers at Calder since the crash of 2002 when they lost $636,500.
Here are the profit/loss estimates for the pinhooked horses sold at Fasig-Tipton Calder the last eight years:
2009 +$594,000
2008 +$6,858,000
2007 +$6,202,000
2006 +$24,083,360
2005 +$10,291,840
2004 +$15,849,000
2003 +$5,313,000
2002 -$636,500
Of course, there were some bright sides to this year’s sale, the first being that there is still a market for two-year-olds in training. Many sellers had to let their two-year-olds go at approximately the same price they paid for them as yearlings, while others will try another sale later this year or race them themselves.
But ask a car dealer if he would be happy to move units right now at the slightest profit (or even a loss). The answer would be an emphatic yes.
We’re now two sales into the 2009 juvenile season, and the downturns at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s February sale of selected two-year-olds in training and the Calder sale looked fairly similar – about 30%.
Significant losses for the pinhookers could have serious ramifications on the sales and breeding industries. Still, it would be prudent to at least wait for the OBS March sale of selected two-year-olds in training before making any conclusions or predictions.
OBS has cataloged 523 horses for the two-day sale March 17-18, and if I had to pick one sale as the bellwether of the two-year-old market, OBS March is it because of its catalog size and ability to draw buyers at all levels.
Downward pressure on prices at the fall yearling sales already is a given, and there will be calls for stud fees to drop further. How big will the correction have to be? That picture will be clearer by the end of the month.
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2 comments:
Although the profits were down, I would agree that anyone making money right now in anything should be happy...
Plus, although the "average" of $11.4 million is entirely true, if I remember correctly, The Green Monkey heavily influences that number, yes?
Good point and yes, I considered backing The Green Monkey out of those stats, but ...
Even if you remove $16.1-million (and at least some of it should be left in), the pattern of strong profit for six straight years is still there at $8.7-million.
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