Ranking the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Races by entertainment value, in reverse order:
A well-meant, poorly executed idea:
The “Marathon”
In what universe is 1 3/4 miles on the dirt (or synthetic) a championship division? Who is this race for? Judging by the first two winners (Muhannak and Man of Iron) it is for undistinguished European handicap horses. Hands down, the worst of the new Breeders’ Cup races.
Developing stories:
Turf Sprint: The popularity explosion of turf sprints among America’s racing secretaries has reached epidemic status, and there is no cure in sight. I will be rooting for the filly Rose Catherine to run this field off their feet, if for no other reason than it might head off creation of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint (G3) in 2012.
Filly & Mare Sprint: I liked it better when our best female sprinters went in the BC Sprint. But what this year’s F&M Sprint lacks in star power, it makes up for in depth. Prediction: the favorite will be 3-to-1 and this will be termed “a great betting race” by the commentators.
Dirt Mile: This division makes sense in theory, but it will steal some very good horses from the Sprint every year and might also hurt the Classic. The overlap created by the new races will be exaggerated in this era of shrinking foal crops.
Down year:
Sprint: The additions of the Filly & Mare Sprint and the Dirt Mile have really hurt this race, which also suffered from injuries to top contenders Majesticperfection and Discreetly Mine.
Juvenile Fillies: Injuries and a lack of anything truly outstanding makes this a sub-par edition of a historically great race.
Getting there:
The Juvenile Turf races: It seems the juvenile turf races top many people’s lists of new Breeders’ Cup races we didn’t need, but I disagree because:
A) I love turf racing
B) Unlike the Marathon, the juvenile turf races are catching on. Europeans trainers are supporting the races with talented horses, albeit a cut below their best. And the two-year-old turf division is developing in America.
If anything, combine the juvenile turf races into one. The filly turf race looks more compelling than the male version this year. Winter Memories is star material, and I’ve loved Kathmanblu ever since she closed for second in the PG Johnson at Saratoga (which this year featured one of the most speed biased turf courses I have ever seen)
Lives up to the Breeders’ Cup name
Ladies Classic: Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck takes on elders. Worth seeing in the theater. (Name should be changed back to Distaff though.)
Turf: Quietly, this race drew the top rated turf horse in the world, Workforce, plus Arc de Triomphe troubled fourth-place finisher Behkabad. Sleeper Al Khali could be the U.S.’s best hope to hit the board.
Potentially great
Filly & Mare Turf: 2009 winner Midday is better than ever, winning three Group 1’s in a row. Her competition includes French Group 1 winner Plumania and Japanese Group 1 winner Red Desire. Not to mention 2008 winner Forever Together, the improving three-year-old Harmonious, and many others.
Juvenile: For the first time since 2005, the winners of all five Grade 1 North American two-year-old races (for open company) meet in the Juvenile. Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova are potential stars, and I love the way Jaycito was striding at the wire in the Norfolk Stakes (G1). 2011 Triple Crown preview.
Hall of Fame
Mile: Goldikova is one of the best turf milers of all time, and this race drew a great field. Brilliant three-year-old Sydney’s Candy should be all alone on the lead, with Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Paco Boy, and Proviso revving up behind, waiting for the right time to pounce.
Goldikova has faced the difficult, ambitious career path that I wish Zenyatta had. She has won seven open company Grade 1’s to Zenyatta’s one, and has traveled the world. But I still expect the Mile will finish second in terms of drama and emotional impact to…
The Classic: The Classic stretch run is likely to be the moment of the year. And the winner is likely to be Horse of the Year.
A mare winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice and finishing her career a perfect 20-for-20? Unlike the 2009 result, that truly would be “un-be-leeevable.”
Showing posts with label Zenyatta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zenyatta. Show all posts
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Did Jackson overreact in pulling Rachel from Apple Blossom?
Going into the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the signals from Rachel Alexandra’s connections were clear: she was not 100% fit for her first start in more than six months.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Debating Curlin’s place in history
If he has indeed run his last race, 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin retires a treasured horse, somewhat under appreciated by mainstream sports fans and a source of great debate within racing circles.
Certainly he will be elected to the Racing Hall of Fame, but is Curlin an all-time great? Will he win a second consecutive Horse of the Year award, like Cigar, the horse Curlin surpassed for North America’s all-time leading earnings record?
Had Curlin won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of taking the lead at the top of the stretch and fading to fourth, he would be a unanimous pick for Horse of the Year. Joining Tiznow as the only two-time Classic winner would have cemented his legacy.
Because Breeders Cup held this year’s event on a relatively untested synthetic track instead of old-fashioned dirt, we will never know with certainty if it was the surface that got Curlin beat or if, as some believe, he was a horse in decline over the second half of the year.
That is one of the main questions Eclipse Award voters will be asking themselves when they decide between Curlin and undefeated Zenyatta for Horse of the Year. Having just re-watched most of Curlin’s 16 career races, I lean toward the horse-in-decline argument.
Following Curlin’s second-place finish in the Man O’ War Stakes at 1 3/8 miles on the turf on July 12, he scored narrow, workmanlike victories in the Woodward Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup over weak fields at equal weight.
Had a top Grade 1 caliber horse come running at Curlin in either of those races – as the two excellent European three-year-olds Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator did in the Breeders’ Cup – he likely would have tasted defeat.
Saying that his late form did not approach his previous, considerable heights is not a slam – 99.9% of horses could not dream of doing what Curlin did. I would consider at least five of his races to be timeless, great efforts (replay links below). Included on the list is his gallant defeat to the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, when the two champions ran their final quarter in :23.80, an incredible split for a 12-furlong dirt race.
Note the determination Curlin shows in his ’07 Preakness and Jockey Club Gold Cup wins, resolutely running down fellow three-year-old Street Sense and then the excellent older horse Lawyer Ron. Note the amazing ability he shows as he runs away from the field in the ’07 Breeders Cup and ’08 Dubai World Cup.
I would love to see Curlin run one more time, but that appears more unlikely with each passing day. At least we have these great efforts to remember him by. So who am I voting for Horse of the Year? Eclipse ballots haven’t arrived in the mail yet, and this campaign isn’t quite over.
Certainly he will be elected to the Racing Hall of Fame, but is Curlin an all-time great? Will he win a second consecutive Horse of the Year award, like Cigar, the horse Curlin surpassed for North America’s all-time leading earnings record?
Had Curlin won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of taking the lead at the top of the stretch and fading to fourth, he would be a unanimous pick for Horse of the Year. Joining Tiznow as the only two-time Classic winner would have cemented his legacy.
Because Breeders Cup held this year’s event on a relatively untested synthetic track instead of old-fashioned dirt, we will never know with certainty if it was the surface that got Curlin beat or if, as some believe, he was a horse in decline over the second half of the year.
That is one of the main questions Eclipse Award voters will be asking themselves when they decide between Curlin and undefeated Zenyatta for Horse of the Year. Having just re-watched most of Curlin’s 16 career races, I lean toward the horse-in-decline argument.
Following Curlin’s second-place finish in the Man O’ War Stakes at 1 3/8 miles on the turf on July 12, he scored narrow, workmanlike victories in the Woodward Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup over weak fields at equal weight.
Had a top Grade 1 caliber horse come running at Curlin in either of those races – as the two excellent European three-year-olds Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator did in the Breeders’ Cup – he likely would have tasted defeat.
Saying that his late form did not approach his previous, considerable heights is not a slam – 99.9% of horses could not dream of doing what Curlin did. I would consider at least five of his races to be timeless, great efforts (replay links below). Included on the list is his gallant defeat to the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, when the two champions ran their final quarter in :23.80, an incredible split for a 12-furlong dirt race.
Note the determination Curlin shows in his ’07 Preakness and Jockey Club Gold Cup wins, resolutely running down fellow three-year-old Street Sense and then the excellent older horse Lawyer Ron. Note the amazing ability he shows as he runs away from the field in the ’07 Breeders Cup and ’08 Dubai World Cup.
I would love to see Curlin run one more time, but that appears more unlikely with each passing day. At least we have these great efforts to remember him by. So who am I voting for Horse of the Year? Eclipse ballots haven’t arrived in the mail yet, and this campaign isn’t quite over.
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