As American racing's synthetic revolution is in a holding pattern, we have a unique opportunity to see what our star horses would look like in parallel universes -- if we stayed with dirt or went all-synthetic, as some are predicting.
There are a lot of factors that should go into a track's decision to go with dirt or synthetic. Overlooked in the current debate is the racing product and star horses the surface creates.
Horse of the Year Curlin's shocking demotion from best non-turf horse in the world to a neck behind Tiago (who is a very nice horse, but not in Curlin's league) in the synthetic Breeders' Cup Classic is the latest example of how a great dirt horse can look rather average on a synthetic track.
But with his only synthetic start coming at the end of a long, globe-trotting campaign, Curlin might not be the best case study.
Street Sense, on the other hand, is a great example of how track surface can completely change our view of a horse. On dirt, Street Sense was a champion two-year-old and historic Kentucky Derby winner, a gifted stretch runner with a quick turn of foot.
On synthetics, Street Sense was winless from three starts, unable to run by horses he left in his wake on a dirt track. In the 2006 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity, run on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense finished third behind Great Hunter and Circular Quay, two horses he beat by 10 and 12 lengths respectively in his following dirt race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.
In the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes, again on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense was a nose worse than Dominican and a nose in front of Zanjero. In his next start on dirt, Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby. Dominican and Zanjero were a non-threatening 10th and 11th respectively.
Street Sense's final race on a synthetic surface came at Turfway Park in the Kentucky Cup Classic. Facing Hard Spun, the horse he trailed by double-digit lengths but easily ran by in the Derby and Preakness, Street Sense sat a length off his front-running rival but was unable to gain an inch in the lane.
So who was the real Street Sense? The dirt champion or the synthetic also-ran? And all things considered, which one would racing be better off with, at the track and in the breeding shed?
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2 comments:
Both of Street Sense's synthetic starts as a three-year-old came at nine furlongs.
The first, in the Blue Grass, was a prep for the Derby. Conventional wisdom was that Nafzger wouldn't have Street Sense cranked for that race, especially after the gritty win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Was it synthetic that beat him or could Nafzger have won the race if he wanted?
Remember, Nafzger trained Unbridled to a Derby win in 1990 after that champion finished third in the Blue Grass—then held on dirt. Now, Summer Squall is better than Dominican, but I think it's fair to include in our assessment that Street Sense may not have run his A+ race even if the Blue Grass last year had been on dirt.
As for the second start, that came against Hard Spun, who may have been the best of his generation at the middle distances, so no shame in losing there.
Good post. I share your view of Hard Spun and would have loved to see how he developed as a four-year-old. I agree that Street Sense's synthetic starts were not the ultimate objectives Nafzger set forth for him. But that doesn't account for the intrinsic differences in dirt vs. synthetic races.
We're talking consistent, huge margin swings and complete hierarchy reversals of what was an excellent (and consistent) three-year-old crop.
Watch how Street Sense (and the other horses) move in the Breeders Futurity and then watch the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Or do the same with the Blue Grass and then the Derby back-to-back.
The differences are considerable.
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