Andrew Beyer, the creator of the popular Beyer Speed Figures that appear in Daily Racing Form, has announced a change in the way he will calculate his figures for synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
Showing posts with label Polytrack. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polytrack. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Synthetic Sentiments, chapter 1
As American racing's synthetic revolution is in a holding pattern, we have a unique opportunity to see what our star horses would look like in parallel universes -- if we stayed with dirt or went all-synthetic, as some are predicting.
There are a lot of factors that should go into a track's decision to go with dirt or synthetic. Overlooked in the current debate is the racing product and star horses the surface creates.
Horse of the Year Curlin's shocking demotion from best non-turf horse in the world to a neck behind Tiago (who is a very nice horse, but not in Curlin's league) in the synthetic Breeders' Cup Classic is the latest example of how a great dirt horse can look rather average on a synthetic track.
But with his only synthetic start coming at the end of a long, globe-trotting campaign, Curlin might not be the best case study.
Street Sense, on the other hand, is a great example of how track surface can completely change our view of a horse. On dirt, Street Sense was a champion two-year-old and historic Kentucky Derby winner, a gifted stretch runner with a quick turn of foot.
On synthetics, Street Sense was winless from three starts, unable to run by horses he left in his wake on a dirt track. In the 2006 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity, run on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense finished third behind Great Hunter and Circular Quay, two horses he beat by 10 and 12 lengths respectively in his following dirt race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.
In the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes, again on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense was a nose worse than Dominican and a nose in front of Zanjero. In his next start on dirt, Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby. Dominican and Zanjero were a non-threatening 10th and 11th respectively.
Street Sense's final race on a synthetic surface came at Turfway Park in the Kentucky Cup Classic. Facing Hard Spun, the horse he trailed by double-digit lengths but easily ran by in the Derby and Preakness, Street Sense sat a length off his front-running rival but was unable to gain an inch in the lane.
So who was the real Street Sense? The dirt champion or the synthetic also-ran? And all things considered, which one would racing be better off with, at the track and in the breeding shed?
There are a lot of factors that should go into a track's decision to go with dirt or synthetic. Overlooked in the current debate is the racing product and star horses the surface creates.
Horse of the Year Curlin's shocking demotion from best non-turf horse in the world to a neck behind Tiago (who is a very nice horse, but not in Curlin's league) in the synthetic Breeders' Cup Classic is the latest example of how a great dirt horse can look rather average on a synthetic track.
But with his only synthetic start coming at the end of a long, globe-trotting campaign, Curlin might not be the best case study.
Street Sense, on the other hand, is a great example of how track surface can completely change our view of a horse. On dirt, Street Sense was a champion two-year-old and historic Kentucky Derby winner, a gifted stretch runner with a quick turn of foot.
On synthetics, Street Sense was winless from three starts, unable to run by horses he left in his wake on a dirt track. In the 2006 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity, run on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense finished third behind Great Hunter and Circular Quay, two horses he beat by 10 and 12 lengths respectively in his following dirt race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.
In the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes, again on Keeneland's Polytrack, Street Sense was a nose worse than Dominican and a nose in front of Zanjero. In his next start on dirt, Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby. Dominican and Zanjero were a non-threatening 10th and 11th respectively.
Street Sense's final race on a synthetic surface came at Turfway Park in the Kentucky Cup Classic. Facing Hard Spun, the horse he trailed by double-digit lengths but easily ran by in the Derby and Preakness, Street Sense sat a length off his front-running rival but was unable to gain an inch in the lane.
So who was the real Street Sense? The dirt champion or the synthetic also-ran? And all things considered, which one would racing be better off with, at the track and in the breeding shed?
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