Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
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3 comments:
On name alone, The Pamplemousse, Chocolate Candy and Capt. Candyman Can just need to go away. Those are too appallingly cringeworthy to even laugh at. Not real thrilled about Mr. Fantasy either. Sounds like the title character in a Cinemax After Dark feature.
Until a horse comes out of Dubai and makes noise in the first half of the season as a 3yo, it's hard for me to consider it any kind of serious prep. Off the top of my head only Discreet Cat was a viable runner here as a 3yo and that was in the later part of the year. Lido Palace and Invasor (who IIRC was thumphed on hard by Discreet Cat in the Dubai race) didn't get rolling until they were 4.
I'd probably have Stardom Bound a little higher (taking one of the Dubai horses slots). There's a few times where I've forgotten she's a young filly and not a seasoned older runner of either gender.
Old Fashioned deserves to be #1 right now and I'm not completely sold on Dunkirk, but can't muster an argument against him at the moment.
It's no longer feasible to dismiss a lightly raced horse like Imperial Council, Hello Broadway or Giant Oak (and you really can't consider the last two "lightly raced" anymore) based on the recent good showings of Big Brown and Curlin in the classics. It never really was. It shouldn't be about the quantity of starts so much as the quality of each individual start.
I'm also stubborn so I'm not ready to completely dismiss Poltergeist yet. Not off one sub-par effort that wasn't all that bad.
~~S
What do you mean by "anticipating the Dutrow bump?"
I read last year when Big Brown won that Dutrow isn't exactly known as ...how did they put it...a "hay, oats, and water" type. Does it relate to that?
I generally expect improvement when a horse is transferred to the Dutrow barn. Especially when they do hind end work on a horse, as IEAH Stables' Mike Iavaraone has been quoted as saying regarding his new aquisition Patena.
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