One of the things I like about covering the two-year-old sales is the ability to look back at the training preview for lessons in hindsight.
Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).
I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.
Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.
Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.
Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.
Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Filly could elevate '09 Triple Crown
The Internet has been abuzz with mostly negative comments about Jess Jackson's purchase of Rachel Alexandra and the announcement that she is under consideration for the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Admittedly, it did not take a lot of imagination to buy the 20-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), after the race. It took a lot of money.
And no one liked to see trainer like Hal Wiggins lose the star filly he trained for the first ten races of her career. So the backlash was predictable, perhaps warranted on some level.
But Rachel Alexandra's sale could be very good for a sport struggling to regain its place in the national conscience.
Clashes between great competitors are celebrated in all sports. In racing they are too few and far between.
With the exception of the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup, and a handful of other races, many of our best horses spend the year avoiding each other while preserving their value upon retirement, which comes too soon for too many.
Rachel Alexandra's breeder and previous owner Dolphus Morrison was going to point her to the Acorn Stakes (G1), a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies on the Belmont Stakes (G1) undercard. The Acorn is a nice race and a conservative, logical spot, but it likely would have featured no more drama than the marvelous filly's morning workouts. Rachel Alexandra would have been 1-to-9 to crush the handful of rivals who showed up.
Not only was Morrison avoiding a matchup with colts under the admittedly less-than-ideal conditions the Triple Crown presents, he said he was looking out for the breeding value of those future stallions he did not want to chance trouncing!
"The Triple Crown races are for future stallions," said Morrison, definitely not quoting the condition book.
Jackson took the best dirt horse in the world -- two-time Horse of the Year Curlin -- and ran him on the grass because he wanted to find out if Curlin could make a historic run at the world's best grass race the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Jackson also ran Curlin on Santa Anita's experimental, synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) instead of keeping him on the dirt tracks he excelled on.
Jackson will not limit Rachel Alexandra's campaign based on a regard for his competitors' breeding values. Nor will he keep her in races restricted to females because "fillies should run against fillies," as Morrison suggested.
It was the filly Rags to Riches who upset Curlin in the 2007 Belmont in what is likely to go down as one of the best races of the era, perhaps ever.
The Triple Crown is racing's greatest stage. If this year's Preakness features a matchup between one of the fastest fillies of modern times, an improbable 50-1 longshot who made the cover of Sports Illustrated, and the three colts who finished behind him in a blanket finish in the Derby slop, sports fans and racing will be the winners.
Succeed or fail, that kind of competitive spirit should be saluted.
Admittedly, it did not take a lot of imagination to buy the 20-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), after the race. It took a lot of money.
And no one liked to see trainer like Hal Wiggins lose the star filly he trained for the first ten races of her career. So the backlash was predictable, perhaps warranted on some level.
But Rachel Alexandra's sale could be very good for a sport struggling to regain its place in the national conscience.
Clashes between great competitors are celebrated in all sports. In racing they are too few and far between.
With the exception of the Triple Crown, the Breeders' Cup, and a handful of other races, many of our best horses spend the year avoiding each other while preserving their value upon retirement, which comes too soon for too many.
Rachel Alexandra's breeder and previous owner Dolphus Morrison was going to point her to the Acorn Stakes (G1), a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies on the Belmont Stakes (G1) undercard. The Acorn is a nice race and a conservative, logical spot, but it likely would have featured no more drama than the marvelous filly's morning workouts. Rachel Alexandra would have been 1-to-9 to crush the handful of rivals who showed up.
Not only was Morrison avoiding a matchup with colts under the admittedly less-than-ideal conditions the Triple Crown presents, he said he was looking out for the breeding value of those future stallions he did not want to chance trouncing!
"The Triple Crown races are for future stallions," said Morrison, definitely not quoting the condition book.
Jackson took the best dirt horse in the world -- two-time Horse of the Year Curlin -- and ran him on the grass because he wanted to find out if Curlin could make a historic run at the world's best grass race the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Jackson also ran Curlin on Santa Anita's experimental, synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) instead of keeping him on the dirt tracks he excelled on.
Jackson will not limit Rachel Alexandra's campaign based on a regard for his competitors' breeding values. Nor will he keep her in races restricted to females because "fillies should run against fillies," as Morrison suggested.
It was the filly Rags to Riches who upset Curlin in the 2007 Belmont in what is likely to go down as one of the best races of the era, perhaps ever.
The Triple Crown is racing's greatest stage. If this year's Preakness features a matchup between one of the fastest fillies of modern times, an improbable 50-1 longshot who made the cover of Sports Illustrated, and the three colts who finished behind him in a blanket finish in the Derby slop, sports fans and racing will be the winners.
Succeed or fail, that kind of competitive spirit should be saluted.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Kicking in the afterburners
One day later I'm still trying to wrap my head around Mine That Bird's improbable Kentucky Derby (G1) victory.
For a little historical perspective, the Birdstone colt ran his final quarter mile in about :23.80 according to the official race chart. My research indicates that was tied for the fourth fastest final quarter in the Derby's 135-year history.
Secretariat owns the fastest final quarter, kicking home in :23.20 in the 1973 edition. Runner-up Sham came home in about :23.80.
Rumbo ran his final quarter in :23.40 in the 1980 derby, but still couldn't catch Genuine Risk. And 1964 Derby winner Northern Dancer scooted home in 24 flat, with runner-up Hill Rise gaining two lengths on the leader for an estimated final quarter in :23.60.
Secretariat, Sham, Hill Rise, and Rumbo all competed on dry, fast tracks, and Secretariat's time of 1:59.40 still stands as the record. Mine That Bird finished in 2:02.66, winning by 6 3/4 lengths in the slop.
One thing is for sure, Calvin Borel's fearless, rail-skimming ride on Mine That Bird was one for the ages.
For a little historical perspective, the Birdstone colt ran his final quarter mile in about :23.80 according to the official race chart. My research indicates that was tied for the fourth fastest final quarter in the Derby's 135-year history.
Secretariat owns the fastest final quarter, kicking home in :23.20 in the 1973 edition. Runner-up Sham came home in about :23.80.
Rumbo ran his final quarter in :23.40 in the 1980 derby, but still couldn't catch Genuine Risk. And 1964 Derby winner Northern Dancer scooted home in 24 flat, with runner-up Hill Rise gaining two lengths on the leader for an estimated final quarter in :23.60.
Secretariat, Sham, Hill Rise, and Rumbo all competed on dry, fast tracks, and Secretariat's time of 1:59.40 still stands as the record. Mine That Bird finished in 2:02.66, winning by 6 3/4 lengths in the slop.
One thing is for sure, Calvin Borel's fearless, rail-skimming ride on Mine That Bird was one for the ages.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Observations from the backstretch
After watching the workouts and gallops the last three days at Churchill Downs, two horses in particular have impressed me.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Resisting Derby Fever (aka doing right by your horse)
Every year several horses are entered in the Kentucky Derby (G1) that have no business being in the field.
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
Monday, April 13, 2009
Derby field comes into focus
We're now less than three weeks from the Kentucky Derby (G1), and most people agree on who the top five candidates are (in various orders) -- I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire.
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
Monday, March 30, 2009
Derby trail getting interesting
I am sticking with I Want Revenge on top of my Triple Crown rankings, but it is by the slimmest of margins over Quality Road, who looked every bit like a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner when he turned back Dunkirk in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1).
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
An early Kentucky Derby pick: I Want Revenge
The big change in my Kentucky Derby rankings came at the top this week, where I have pretty much decided on I Want Revenge as my Kentucky Derby pick.
This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.
Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).
Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.
Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).
This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.
1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth
This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.
Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).
Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.
Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).
This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.
1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth
Monday, March 2, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll (3-2-09)
A week after Dunkirk jumped all the way up to my #2 spot, I'm putting impressive Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Quality Road #3 overall. While it may seem I'm overvaluing the flavor of the week here, both of these colts have the pedigree, speed figures, and physical type to compete in the Triple Crown. Quality Road replaces Midshipman, who fell into the Dubai black hole and is out of the TC.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll 2-23
Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
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