We're now less than three weeks from the Kentucky Derby (G1), and most people agree on who the top five candidates are (in various orders) -- I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire.
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
Showing posts with label Dunkirk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dunkirk. Show all posts
Monday, April 13, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Derby trail getting interesting
I am sticking with I Want Revenge on top of my Triple Crown rankings, but it is by the slimmest of margins over Quality Road, who looked every bit like a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner when he turned back Dunkirk in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1).
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll (3-2-09)
A week after Dunkirk jumped all the way up to my #2 spot, I'm putting impressive Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Quality Road #3 overall. While it may seem I'm overvaluing the flavor of the week here, both of these colts have the pedigree, speed figures, and physical type to compete in the Triple Crown. Quality Road replaces Midshipman, who fell into the Dubai black hole and is out of the TC.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll 2-23
Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
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