While researching a story about Keeneland's plan to offer 50-cent pick three wagers , I came across an interesting statistic on the growth of Keeneland's pick four pools since the minimum was reduced to 50 cents.
Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.
The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.
But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.
Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)
In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)
Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.
"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."
That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.
If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.
The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Did Jackson overreact in pulling Rachel from Apple Blossom?
Going into the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the signals from Rachel Alexandra’s connections were clear: she was not 100% fit for her first start in more than six months.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
The race was a tuneup for the 2009 Horse of the Year’s showdown with undefeated Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Oaklawn Park.
But a day after Rachel Alexandra’s three-quarter-length loss to Zardana (Brz), who was sent to New Orleans as a trial balloon by Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, majority owner Jess Jackson declared Rachel Alexandra out of the “Race for the Ages.”
Did the sting of losing to Zenyatta’s second-string stablemate cause Jackson to overreact?
Do he and trainer Steve Asmussen have reason to believe their four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly will not recapture her incredible form of 2009, when she won all eight of her starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), and Woodward Stakes (G1)?
Or as some others have suggested, has Team Rachel developed cold feet regarding their previously stated desire to face six-year-old Zenyatta three times this year?
Although she lost, Rachel did not run a bad race.
Breaking alertly from post two, Rachel was kept on hold by jockey Calvin Borel while pressing Fighter Wing through six furlongs in 1:12.86. At the top of the far turn, Borel took a look back and saw Zardana moving easily, advancing behind him.
Zardana rolled up outside Rachel as the field turned for home, but Borel hesitated to ask for the filly’s best run. After the race, Borel said he was instructed not to get into Rachel until the final sixteenth of a mile.
Those instructions were designed to prevent Rachel from doing too much in her comeback, but they hurt her chances to win on Saturday. A long-striding filly with a remarkable cruising speed, Rachel was put in the position of having to re-rally against a perfect-trip stalker who had a full head of steam.
Rachel was unable to outquicken Zardana, who was making her second start of the year and undoubtedly was cranked for the race, but she battled on gamely to the wire. The final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.55, and it was 11½ lengths back to third-place finisher Unforgotten.
Although Zardana’s form since being imported to America in 2007 has topped out at the Grade 2 level, she did win her three previous races on dirt by an average margin of 13 lengths. Those victories were in her native Brazil, and until Saturday, Zardana has raced exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces in California since she was shipped to the U.S.
It appears Zardana may be best on dirt. She was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, with Rachel Alexandra receiving a 100, the same figure she received in her first race of 2009. Although far from Rachel’s best, it was a good effort. And the figure roughly fits with Jackson’s prerace comments that she was only 80-85% ready.
Had Zardana not been in the race, a 12-length win and a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 would have looked like a perfectly acceptable prep race for the Apple Blossom.
Immediately after the defeat, Asmussen said, “No crystal ball could see that far ahead,” when asked about Rachel’s chances of facing Zenyatta at Oaklawn on April 9.
By Sunday, Team Rachel unequivocally declared her out of the showdown.
15-for-15
About 20 minutes after Rachel’s defeat, it was Zenyatta’s turn to make her 2010 debut in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Carrying 127 pounds—conceding from 12 to 16 pounds to her opposition—the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner again made her case as the best horse in the world and one of the best mares of all time.
Trapped behind a wall of horses turning for home, jockey Mike Smith sent 17-hand Zenyatta diving to the rail in midstretch and then back outside of pacesetter Dance to My Tune.
Despite some nervous moments, Smith never used his whip. Zenyatta was galloping in hand, showing off her huge stride at the wire.
If Rachel and Zenyatta both reach the starting gate at Oaklawn, the Apple Blossom’s purse will increase from $500,000 to $5-million.
Shirreffs and Zenyatta’s owners Jerry and Ann Moss said their mare will be there rain or shine, Rachel or not.
There is still time for Asmussen and Jackson to change their minds.
But it might depend on what they see in that crystal ball.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
New Jersey takes a bold step forward
The theory that horse racing will never get its act together on a national scale because the industry players are too busy looking out for their own bottom lines (or existence in some cases) has proven true time and again.
But a piece of news from New Jersey, where Monmouth Park will focus on quality instead of quantity in a shortened 50-day 2010 meeting, has snapped me out of my blogging funk.
Under the plan approved by the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association yesterday, Monmouth will race Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays (plus a few selected holiday Mondays) from May 22 until Sept. 11. If projections of $50-million in purse money spread over 50 dates hold true, Monmouth will have the highest purse structure in America.
The horsemen, who in many states have pushed for year-round racing that has diluted the sport to the point of oblivion, should be commended for going in a different direction.
I believe the future of horse racing in America is less dates, higher quality racing, bigger fields, and lower takeout – all in a beautiful, fan-friendly atmosphere that celebrates racing as a special event.
Despite the horrendous rain-soaked conditions Monmouth experienced when it hosted the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, I came away from my first and only visit to the Oceanport track with a favorable impression.
It’s a charming property with a loyal local fan base. And although its trifecta takeout of 25% is too high, 17% on WPS wagers and 15% on the pick 4 makes Monmouth one of the good guys in terms of giving gamblers a fighting chance to make a profit (and a reason to feed the pari-mutuel pools that fuel the sport’s purse structure).
What is good for gamblers is good for the sport.
Hopefully the same will be said about the new vision for New Jersey racing.
But a piece of news from New Jersey, where Monmouth Park will focus on quality instead of quantity in a shortened 50-day 2010 meeting, has snapped me out of my blogging funk.
Under the plan approved by the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association yesterday, Monmouth will race Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays (plus a few selected holiday Mondays) from May 22 until Sept. 11. If projections of $50-million in purse money spread over 50 dates hold true, Monmouth will have the highest purse structure in America.
The horsemen, who in many states have pushed for year-round racing that has diluted the sport to the point of oblivion, should be commended for going in a different direction.
I believe the future of horse racing in America is less dates, higher quality racing, bigger fields, and lower takeout – all in a beautiful, fan-friendly atmosphere that celebrates racing as a special event.
Despite the horrendous rain-soaked conditions Monmouth experienced when it hosted the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, I came away from my first and only visit to the Oceanport track with a favorable impression.
It’s a charming property with a loyal local fan base. And although its trifecta takeout of 25% is too high, 17% on WPS wagers and 15% on the pick 4 makes Monmouth one of the good guys in terms of giving gamblers a fighting chance to make a profit (and a reason to feed the pari-mutuel pools that fuel the sport’s purse structure).
What is good for gamblers is good for the sport.
Hopefully the same will be said about the new vision for New Jersey racing.
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