Since 2006 when the Thoroughbred auction industry reached its peak, total sales, average price, and median have declined every year at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
All three of those metrics increased in 2010, a year in which most market players are just hoping for some stability .
There are a lot of ways to judge a horse sale. To me, the most important stat at Keeneland this year was the 3.3% increase in total sales.
That growth came despite a catalog that was 332 horses smaller and an 80% decline in spending from 2009 leading buyer Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, whom the industry has relied on so heavily.
Certainly, the picture at Keeneland was not all rosy. Commercial breeders took it on the chin for the second consecutive year. Only 13% of the yearlings in the sale sold profitably according to Thoroughbred Times’ estimates.
Having paid the pre-bubble-burst stud fees of 2008 and forced to sell into a recession -- commercial breeders were up against it. But there is some good news to report in this arena.
Although costs of production remain too high, stud fees are becoming more reasonable. Combined with decreased supply of yearlings, the economic picture for commercial breeders should improve in 2011 and beyond.
The market downturn also has commercial breeders thinking more about the quality of mares they breed and the end result of their matings -- producing a good racehorse. (perhaps a side effect of having to race their buy-backs?)
Buy-back rate decreased slightly to 26.7% this year. Combining outs and buy-backs, the amount of inventory sellers were stuck with after the sale declined by 11.4%. And inventory is the enemy, especially considering how much it costs to carry a horse another year or two.
In order to recover from a recession, the market has to hit bottom. Given this year's progress, it appears the bottom of the yearling market was 2009.
It’s no longer getting worse. In 2010, that’s reason for optimism.
Showing posts with label Keeneland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keeneland. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
My 50 cents
While researching a story about Keeneland's plan to offer 50-cent pick three wagers , I came across an interesting statistic on the growth of Keeneland's pick four pools since the minimum was reduced to 50 cents.
Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.
The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.
But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.
Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)
In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)
Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.
"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."
That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.
If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.
The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.
Keeneland introduced 50-cent pick fours at its fall 2006 meeting. From 2005 to 2009, Keeneland's annual pick four handle has grown every year, for a total increase of 61.1%.
The 50-cent minimum is one of several factors that have contributed to the popularity of the bet. The pick four is one of the fastest growing bets in American racing. And big fields, quality racing, and a 19% takeout make Keeneland's pick four one of the most attractive in the country.
But at the very least these numbers show that pools can grow even when the minimum wager is decreased.
Year.....Spring Meet....Fall Meet.........Total (%change)
2005....$3,420,879......$3,286,424.....$6,707,303
2006....$4,483,671......$4,043,433.....$8,527,104 (+27.1%)
2007....$5,143,745......$4,102,803.....$9,246,548 (+8.4%)
2008....$5,722,696......$3,889,018.....$9,611,714 (+3.9%)
2009....$5,171,676......$5,637,777.....$10,809,453 (+12.5%)
In addition to making a bet more affordable, thereby encouraging more people to play, decreased minimums also help bettors avoid the tax man because bets that pay less than $600 are never reported to the IRS. (Two 50-cent pick four tickets that pay $500 are not reported, whereas the same sequence bet on a $1 ticket would be reported)
Keeneland's Director of Simulcasting Jim Goodman described the growth of the track's pick four pools as amazing.
"We think it’s a positive thing for the horseplayer," Goodman said. "Being player friendly is one of our mottos, and I think all tracks should look at minimum wagers and help the players if there’s something that they can do."
That's a refreshing statement, particularly coming from a racetrack employee who is in a position of influence.
If I was running a track, I would offer minimum unit wagering (and a takeout below 20%) for all multi-race/multi-horse bets.
The pick six in Southern California, where carryovers are an important part of the game and there are enough gamblers willing to play for a $2 stake, would be my one exception to the rule.
Monday, July 13, 2009
McPeek targeting Saratoga for Striking Dancer
Before trainer Wesley Ward made his historic raid on the Royal Ascot meeting with Jealous Again and before Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 20 ¼ lengths, another American-based filly was near the top of my horses to watch list for 2009.
Striking Dancer, a three-year-old Smart Strike filly out of the Danehill (Ire) mare Dancing Shoes, made her 2009 debut in a turf allowance at Gulfstream Park on February 25. Steadied on the turn and momentarily trapped behind a wall of horses, Striking Dancer and jockey Kent Desormeaux shot up the inside, steered outside and ran down the leader with a burst of late energy.
Trainer Ken McPeek briefly toyed with taking Striking Dancer to compete in a European classic, but an ankle injury sent her to the bench. Now three works into her comeback, McPeek is targeting Saratoga for Striking Dancer’s return.
I recently caught up with McPeek and asked him what he thought of the filly he ferreted out of the sixth day of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale for $110,000.
“She’s very good. We have to get her ready again, but she acts like she’s a graded stakes quality filly,” McPeek said. “We just have to get the time and get her ready. I think she will be competitive at a high level.”
Both of Striking Dancer's wins have come on grass, but McPeek thinks she has potential on dirt. He said he would have liked to run her in the Kentucky Oaks.
“I think she’d be fine on the dirt. We just haven’t had the opportunity to get her there,” McPeek said. “I think she might have given Rachel at least a test in the Oaks, but timing is everything and she just wasn’t ready.”
Striking Dancer was bred in Kentucky by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings and was consigned by Warrendale Sales at the Keeneland September sale.
Striking Dancer (#4, green hat, blue polka dots)
Gulfstream, 2-25-09, Race 8
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Beyer tweaks his formula
Andrew Beyer, the creator of the popular Beyer Speed Figures that appear in Daily Racing Form, has announced a change in the way he will calculate his figures for synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Sales to Racetrack: The tale of Don Gato
Don Gato, the $800,000 Storm Cat colt that topped the 2008 Keeneland April sale of selected two-year-olds in training, makes his career debut in race 7 at Keeneland today.
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Race fans love 10-cent supers
Despite initial resistance from some of the major American racetrack operators, reduced minimum increment wagers such as 10-cent superfectas and 50-cent Pick 4s seem to be a big hit with the everyday racing fan.
(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)
I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.
Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.
The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.
(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)
I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.
Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.
The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.
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