Thoroughbred writer Pete Denk shares his experience covering North American Thoroughbred auctions and racing.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Cutting stakes purses at Arlington and the new simulcast market



When the press release came in last Friday afternoon, I was shaking my head – “Arlington Park trims $725,000 from stakes purses.”

I have a soft spot for Arlington. Located in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, Arlington is a modern, majestic facility with great sight lines, immaculately maintained grounds, good customer service, and one day a year of world class racing.

If you enjoy turf racing, a live visit on Arlington Million day carries my strongest recommendation.

Unfortunately, for much of the other 90 days of Arlington’s meet, the racing product does not live up to the facility. Low purses are the primary problem.

But faced with an approximate 20% decline in out-of-state handle so far at its 2010 meeting, Arlington had to do something. The decision came down to cutting overnight purses or trimming the stakes program.

In a joint decision with the Illinois Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association, Arlington decided to decrease the purses of 11 stakes – nine of them graded – and cancel another. Untouched by the changes were the three Arlington Million Day Grade 1’s and Arlington’s substantial Illinois-bred stakes program. Click here for the original story and the list of changes.

The decrease in graded stakes purse money at Arlington is part of a disturbing national trend. It is not easy to breed or buy a graded stakes horse, and the expenses of a racing stable are considerable. Owners should reap a considerable financial reward for winning a graded race. Does the 60% winner’s share of $100,000 for a Grade 3 or $150,000 for a Grade 2 cut it?

Earlier this week, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote a story that suggested the purse decreases could cost Arlington an appearance by 2008 champion female sprinter Informed Decision.

I spoke with Arlington President Roy Arnold on Wednesday about the difficult decision his track faced and a number of national issues. Arnold said the primary reason for the drop in out-of-state handle was a three-to-four week period during which Arlington’s signal was not offered in New York.

Arnold: When New York City OTB was not making statutory payments and using bankruptcy to justify that, New York racing officials took some steps, including ceasing to approve out-of-state simulcast contracts. It was an internal New York issue, and we were one of the fist tracks to fall victim to it.

It was not helpful to be cut out of the biggest pari-mutuel market in the country. We were not alone, but when you’re trying to get momentum early in a meet, it can affect you disproportionately. It affected our pool sizes, and that probably affected the decisions of some bigger gamblers who look for a certain pool size to play. We had planned on a drop of 5 to 10% due to national conditions, but there was no way to predict this.

Arnold said another factor at work is the decreased racing schedule for the less-is-more super meet experiment at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, which has been very successful at drawing out-of-state simulcast bets.

Arnold
: When Monmouth and other tracks who do not have gaming announced they were going to consolidate their schedules, cutting Thursdays from their live schedule, my initial response was good! Because I’m operating on Thursday and it’s a chance for me to gain handle.


But here’s what I think is happening. Race fans are first and foremost local, then national. That’s my observation in Illinois definitely. We have a very robust fan base, one of the best in the country, but when there is not local Illinois content, they do not come and bet out-of-state simulcasts unless it’s a big event.


So as racing jurisdictions consolidate their live race dates, their fan wagering is declining on out-of-state product because few of those people are going to the parlors or the track to bet when there is no live product. They’re turning into weekend-only players.


Even though Arlington is still doing very well on Thursdays – we’re one of the top three tracks that day and have been for the last few years – we’re still down from last year.


I asked Arnold if he thought Arlington is one of the many tracks losing out in the simulcast wars to Monmouth, which has enjoyed a serious upgrade in field quality and size thanks to its experimental higher purse structure.

Arnold: I think the jury is still out on Monmouth’s approach in the long term. What we think we’ve seen is the interest in Monmouth is overall driving the market higher on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, but it’s disproportionately going to Monmouth and negatively affecting the other players.

Now we’re all for what Monmouth is doing. From a marketing standpoint, Monmouth has drawn interest back to the sport. But is it sustainable? Belmont is still out-handling Monmouth, and Belmont’s horsemen are earning what’s being paid out. Monmouth’s horsemen are not.


I’m a little bit concerned about others following suit, consolidating dates further, and not recognizing we’re moving our core players from five or six days a week to three. This consolidation of race dates represents a major change in the market…


The latest report shows that 29% of our purse money nationally is coming from enhanced gaming. That is really disturbing. I believe in sound business principles. We can’t be looking for a silver bullet. I think at the end of this year there will be a lot to discuss at the racing symposium.


Here is what Arnold had to say regarding the decision to cut the stakes purses instead of overnight races.

Arnold: Bottom line, we were given a choice between a reduction in the stakes program – to the minimum purse levels to maintain the current grades – or to decrease purses for the horsemen that provide 95% of our races.

We want to do everything we can to maintain purse level for those horsemen who stable here. So that meant we only had one place to look – the stakes program. It was a clear decision.


Couldn’t the purse cuts further lower the quality of stakes fields at Arlington?

Arnold: We love Mr. Sheppard and we certainly hope he comes and runs here with Informed Decision. But the case can be made that if you have a strong horse that takes a pass, you might actually end up with more horses. I would prefer to have Informed Decision here. But the reality is if we lose her, we might go from a good 6 or 7-horse field up to a wide open 10 or 12. From a wagering perspective, it could actually be better for us.

We think we’re a great place to run. You see a Rachel Alexandra run some place because the distance and time is right based on the larger goals for their campaign. Our condition book hasn’t changed. The horsemen who were looking at a race here, the purse money is only one and maybe not even the major factor in their decision to run here. And if it’s a turf race, we still think we’re in a predominant position as far as offering the best turf track in the country. A lot of horsemen run with us because they like Arlington and they like being treated first class. None of those things have changed.


While siding with the local horsemen on the purse issue, Arnold stressed to them the importance of field size.

Arnold: We used this opportunity to remind our horsemen that the nature of the pari-mutuel system is that you earn purse money as you go along, and field size is the most important factor. There’s no getting around it.

You must have a race card that provides the wagering public with the opportunities they’re seeking – not only adequate field sizes but interesting propositions in the multi-race wagers. If you can card consistently good field sizes and place the races properly – turf races and allowance races for example – on a day-to-day basis, the public will wager with you.


The good news is that our field sizes are coming back remarkably. We have an average field size of nine (today), and on Friday our average field size is ten.


Looking to the future, Illinois racing is still waiting for casino impact fee money the state legislature approved years ago.

Arnold: We’ve got $17-18-million currently in escrow for the purse account pending the outcome of an appeal by the casinos. That’s very frustrating to have that much money sitting in an account that has been earmarked for us to offset the impact the casino industry has had on he horse racing, yet we cannot access the money.

We’re going into the fifth year of that law and we continue to work our way through the legal process to gain access to those funds. As much as there is a dark cloud right now, we’re looking for a silver lining, and we think by maintaining solidarity with our horsemen we can power through to next year. Despite everything I’m still optimistic there is a future for Thoroughbred racing.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Belmont selection: ICE BOX

Ice Box is the fastest horse in this edition of the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he has a legitimate 12-furlong pedigree. His dam won going 1 ½ miles on the turf, his dam’s sire Tabasco Cat won the Belmont, and his sire’s sire A.P. Indy also was a Belmont winner.

Interactif is the other horse in this race with a Belmont quality pedigree, and he should be a big price. Interactif comes into the race off a freshening for trainer Todd Pletcher, who does some of his best work off the layoff.

Stately Victor is a question mark on fast dirt, but the price will be right. Still wondering if he is as good as his 4 ¼-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) appeared.

In vertical wagers, I would also use Fly Down, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and the two "Dude" horses underneath.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

A look back: Make Music For Me

One of the things I like about covering the two-year-old sales is the ability to look back at the training preview for lessons in hindsight.

Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).

I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.

Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.

Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.

Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.

Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?