Since 2006 when the Thoroughbred auction industry reached its peak, total sales, average price, and median have declined every year at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
All three of those metrics increased in 2010, a year in which most market players are just hoping for some stability .
There are a lot of ways to judge a horse sale. To me, the most important stat at Keeneland this year was the 3.3% increase in total sales.
That growth came despite a catalog that was 332 horses smaller and an 80% decline in spending from 2009 leading buyer Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, whom the industry has relied on so heavily.
Certainly, the picture at Keeneland was not all rosy. Commercial breeders took it on the chin for the second consecutive year. Only 13% of the yearlings in the sale sold profitably according to Thoroughbred Times’ estimates.
Having paid the pre-bubble-burst stud fees of 2008 and forced to sell into a recession -- commercial breeders were up against it. But there is some good news to report in this arena.
Although costs of production remain too high, stud fees are becoming more reasonable. Combined with decreased supply of yearlings, the economic picture for commercial breeders should improve in 2011 and beyond.
The market downturn also has commercial breeders thinking more about the quality of mares they breed and the end result of their matings -- producing a good racehorse. (perhaps a side effect of having to race their buy-backs?)
Buy-back rate decreased slightly to 26.7% this year. Combining outs and buy-backs, the amount of inventory sellers were stuck with after the sale declined by 11.4%. And inventory is the enemy, especially considering how much it costs to carry a horse another year or two.
In order to recover from a recession, the market has to hit bottom. Given this year's progress, it appears the bottom of the yearling market was 2009.
It’s no longer getting worse. In 2010, that’s reason for optimism.
Showing posts with label horse auctions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label horse auctions. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
A look back: Make Music For Me
One of the things I like about covering the two-year-old sales is the ability to look back at the training preview for lessons in hindsight.
Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).
I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.
Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.
Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.
Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.
Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?
Four of this year's Belmont Stakes (G1) entrants sold at the two-year-old sales last year -- Dave in Dixie ($310,000 Keeneland April), Make Music For Me ($95,000 Barretts March), Stately Victor ($250,000 Adena Springs), and Uptowncharlybrown ($57,000 OBS April).
I've chosen Make Music For Me as the subject of this entry because he sold affordably, and he is the type of horse I have learned to appreciate at the juvenile sales -- a relatively fast worker with an efficient, rhythmic stride that is moving within himself while reaching out for ground. I want to see future potential in the work, preferably of the two-turn variety. I have learned to get away from horses who look like they are all out to run the fastest 1-2 furlongs of their life.
Eddie Woods, one of the top pinhookers in the game (champion Big Brown is his most famous recent graduate), consigned Make Music For Me at the Barretts March sale. The Bernstein colt's time for one furlong over Fairplex Park's dirt surface was :10.40. That placed him in the upper 50% of the times at the distance, but still three lengths slower than the fastest worker.
Make Music For Me has won only once, but he has finished in the top four in five graded stakes and earned $362,260 for owners Peter and Ellen Johnson. Most recently he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after rallying wide from way way back.
Make Music For Me is out of the Carson City mare Miss Cheers. Although his pedigree is not a great fit for the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, he always seems to be passing horses in the lane.
Here is how Make Music For Me looked as an unraced two-year-old last March. Would you have seen his potential?
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Nicanor by 15!
Barbaro's full brother Nicanor won his turf debut by 15 lengths on Wednesday at Delaware Park, much to the delight of his legions of fans.
Has a maiden ever had a more loyal, rabid following?
Although the three-year-old Dynaformer colt ran well (and fairly fast) in his previous dirt races at Gulfstream Park, he clearly relished the move to turf and two turns in his fourth career start.
After pressing a first quarter in a reasonable :24.34 while three-wide, Nicanor and jockey Anna Napravnik took control of the race before the field hit the backstretch. Nicanor gradually pulled away in :49, 1:14.35, 1:39.86, and 1:46.31. (the course was rated firm, but it must have been a little on the deep side)
Neither the final time nor the final 5/16 in :31.96 seem particularly fast at face value, so the quality of the field he was facing probably played a big role in that margin of victory.
Still, it was a very nice effort, and Nicanor did everything that could have been expected and more. He is a stakes candidate now, and the rich summer turf races for three-year-olds are calling.
Trainer Michael Matz took a conservative stance immediately after the race, saying he would like to aim for a non-winners allowance race. see story
While there will be comparisons made between Barbaro's debut victory on the turf, which also came at Delaware, I wouldn't rate this performance on that level.
Barbaro pressed fairly quick fractions and flew home in :23.66, a fast final quarter for any turf horse, much less a front runner making his debut.
Of course, very few horses will ever live up to what Barbaro did in his seven-race career. But with the potential Nicanor showed today, and his dam La Ville Rouge spitting out good-looking full siblings to Barbaro each year, race fans can dream.
Nicanor's debut race replay
Barbaro's debut race replay
Has a maiden ever had a more loyal, rabid following?
Although the three-year-old Dynaformer colt ran well (and fairly fast) in his previous dirt races at Gulfstream Park, he clearly relished the move to turf and two turns in his fourth career start.
After pressing a first quarter in a reasonable :24.34 while three-wide, Nicanor and jockey Anna Napravnik took control of the race before the field hit the backstretch. Nicanor gradually pulled away in :49, 1:14.35, 1:39.86, and 1:46.31. (the course was rated firm, but it must have been a little on the deep side)
Neither the final time nor the final 5/16 in :31.96 seem particularly fast at face value, so the quality of the field he was facing probably played a big role in that margin of victory.
Still, it was a very nice effort, and Nicanor did everything that could have been expected and more. He is a stakes candidate now, and the rich summer turf races for three-year-olds are calling.
Trainer Michael Matz took a conservative stance immediately after the race, saying he would like to aim for a non-winners allowance race. see story
While there will be comparisons made between Barbaro's debut victory on the turf, which also came at Delaware, I wouldn't rate this performance on that level.
Barbaro pressed fairly quick fractions and flew home in :23.66, a fast final quarter for any turf horse, much less a front runner making his debut.
Of course, very few horses will ever live up to what Barbaro did in his seven-race career. But with the potential Nicanor showed today, and his dam La Ville Rouge spitting out good-looking full siblings to Barbaro each year, race fans can dream.
Nicanor's debut race replay
Barbaro's debut race replay
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Live blogging from Barretts March
The 20th edition of the Barretts March sale of selected two-year-olds in training is about to get underway.
Here are my top ten picks and a few comments from buyers and sellers, as they appeared in today's issue of the Thoroughbred Times TODAY.
The declines we have seen at the two-year-old auctions this year are expected to continue, and some feel the future of Barretts March is in danger. I am hoping for some pleasant surprises tonight, but honestly there is not a lot of optimism in the air.
---
Not surprisingly, the sale is off to a slow start. The half brother to I Want Revenge (Hip 15, Thunder Gulch-Meguial (arg), by Roy) RNA'd for a mere $60,000. Consignor Dave Showalter of NexStar said the reserve was $199,000 (although I later learned the horse went through without a reserve)
Word is that the first big price should be Hip 28, a Tiznow filly out of Misty Lee, by Level Sands, consigned by Scanlon Training Center.
---
Bob Irvin’s C-Punch Ranch purchased the Tiznow filly for $390,000, highest price of the day so far. The light gray filly is out of a half sister to champion three-year-old filly Xtra Heat – the Level Sands mare Misty Lee.
Scanlon Training Center purchased her for $100,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale and consigned her at Barretts.
“She’s by a good sire, and she’s a filly with a lot of class,” said David Scanlon. “She came out here and showed herself very well. She moved real good in the video, and she’s a little lighter made filly. They’re saying those are the types of horses that are doing well out here on the synthetic tracks – lighter horses that get over the ground really easy.”
Scanlon got her as a bit of a steal at the September sale, considering how red hot Tiznow was at the time.
"Maybe because she didn’t look like the typical rugged Tiznow, maybe that put a few people off," Scanlon said. "She was a horse that kind of fell through the cracks as a yearling, but we got her in a good spot here. She more than lived up to our expectations."
---
Hip 97, a Tapit filly out of Cross Your Heart, by Miswaki, just sold to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne for $540,000.
Todd Pletcher will train the filly for new owners Michael Tabor, John Magnier and Derrick Smith.
---
Jess Jackson, who was underbidder on the Tapit filly, purchased the sale topper -- a Tiznow colt out of Hurricane Judy, by Storm Cat, for $650,000.
---
Here are my top ten picks and a few comments from buyers and sellers, as they appeared in today's issue of the Thoroughbred Times TODAY.
The declines we have seen at the two-year-old auctions this year are expected to continue, and some feel the future of Barretts March is in danger. I am hoping for some pleasant surprises tonight, but honestly there is not a lot of optimism in the air.
---
Not surprisingly, the sale is off to a slow start. The half brother to I Want Revenge (Hip 15, Thunder Gulch-Meguial (arg), by Roy) RNA'd for a mere $60,000. Consignor Dave Showalter of NexStar said the reserve was $199,000 (although I later learned the horse went through without a reserve)
Word is that the first big price should be Hip 28, a Tiznow filly out of Misty Lee, by Level Sands, consigned by Scanlon Training Center.
---
Bob Irvin’s C-Punch Ranch purchased the Tiznow filly for $390,000, highest price of the day so far. The light gray filly is out of a half sister to champion three-year-old filly Xtra Heat – the Level Sands mare Misty Lee.
Scanlon Training Center purchased her for $100,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale and consigned her at Barretts.
“She’s by a good sire, and she’s a filly with a lot of class,” said David Scanlon. “She came out here and showed herself very well. She moved real good in the video, and she’s a little lighter made filly. They’re saying those are the types of horses that are doing well out here on the synthetic tracks – lighter horses that get over the ground really easy.”
Scanlon got her as a bit of a steal at the September sale, considering how red hot Tiznow was at the time.
"Maybe because she didn’t look like the typical rugged Tiznow, maybe that put a few people off," Scanlon said. "She was a horse that kind of fell through the cracks as a yearling, but we got her in a good spot here. She more than lived up to our expectations."
---
Hip 97, a Tapit filly out of Cross Your Heart, by Miswaki, just sold to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne for $540,000.
Todd Pletcher will train the filly for new owners Michael Tabor, John Magnier and Derrick Smith.
---
Jess Jackson, who was underbidder on the Tapit filly, purchased the sale topper -- a Tiznow colt out of Hurricane Judy, by Storm Cat, for $650,000.
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