Thoroughbred writer Pete Denk shares his experience covering North American Thoroughbred auctions and racing.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Florida Pick 4 rule unfair to bettors

Last Thursday's pick four at Gulfstream Park was the latest injustice done to bettors, who continue to be a largely voiceless, under-represented group despite their contributons to the industry.

Race 6 was the first leg of the pick four, and when two horses were scratched out of the gate right before the race began, many bettors assumed they would receive refunds on the scratched horses since the scratches occurred prior to the first leg of the series and the horses were in the first leg.

Wrong! Gulfstream transferred all those bets to the 6-to-5 post-time favorite Alice's Halo. So if you were betting against Alice's Halo, now you were betting on him, in multiple combinations for some people.

I cannot think of any other business that would do this to its customers. Unable to provide the service you have purchased, they keep your money and spend it as they see fit.

As a side note, if a scratch occurs in the first leg of a pick three at Gulfstream, those wagers are appropriately refunded. Why should a pick four be different?

I called Gulfstream's Director of Mutuels Edward Mackie. He was familiar with the race in question.

"We got about a million calls on that one," Mackie said. "In the pick three you get a refund, but in the pick four and pick six, your money goes on the post-time favorite. It's a state law in Florida."

State law or not, it's a terrible rule.

To Florida and any other state that may revisit this rule in the future: if a horse scratches out of a multi-race bet before the series begins (particularly in the first leg), all wagers on that horse should be refunded.

You do not change my win bets for me when my horse scratches, or if a horse I wheel underneath in a trifecta scratches. So please do not change my selections in the pick four.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Race fans love 10-cent supers

Despite initial resistance from some of the major American racetrack operators, reduced minimum increment wagers such as 10-cent superfectas and 50-cent Pick 4s seem to be a big hit with the everyday racing fan.

(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)

I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.

Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.

The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Kentucky Derby Poll 2-23

Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.

1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Sale time!

The parking lot here at the OBS sales grounds is overflowing and the pavilion is as crowded as I've seen it. Maybe it's the promise of a new two-year-old crop. Or perhaps the anticipation of value has brought more buyers to Ocala. Then again, maybe it's just a bunch of Ocala-ites who turned out to watch a horse sale.

We'll know soon enough. The first horse should be in the ring any minute. Provided they vet ok, hips 1, 4, and 14 ought to hit six figures.

1 $300,000
4 $100,000
14 $127,000

Here is my Short List from the TODAY newsletter . This a deep group, so I had to make some tough choices.

For example, one of my favorite horses was actually Hip 197, a Concorde's Tune filly I left off my list on sire power. Her workout was awesome. Click on Hip 197 after you go here.

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As it turned out, quite a few people hung around to take a shot at the Concorde's Tune filly, who ultimately sold for $225,000 to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne. She'll be one to watch for at the track.

Freshman sires at OBS Feb

It is only one breeze show, so it's far from the big picture, but I thought three freshman sires made strong showings at Friday's breeze show down here in Ocala.

Here is the hip-by-hip video link. And here are a few of the key works to check out from the freshman sires:

As a Grade 1 winning juvenile by Storm Cat, it should be no surprise if Consolidator's foals are quick and early, and that's exactly what hips 86 and 119 appear to be, with an emphasis on quick.

Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) was well-represented by the freakishly fast colt hip 72.

Hips 95 and 38, fillies by Grade 1 winner Purge (sorry, no conformation picture in the stallion directory), turned in what I thought were two of the best breezes in the sale.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Reporting from Ocala

I'm down in Ocala for the February two-year-old sale, which is Tuesday.

After watching videos and walking the barns today I've come away with a not-so-short list of 47! There are some nice horses in here this year. I have to get those 47 down to 10 for my short list that will run in the Thoroughbred Times TODAY newsletter on sale day.

The times were blazing on the OBS synthetic SafeTrack. Twenty-one horses worked one furlong in less than ten seconds! click here for the under-tack times and here for the videos

The synthetic tracks seem to make most horses look like good movers. And with this year's fast times (probably a click faster than last year) the gap between the fastest horse and the slowest horse has shortened.

This means less horses can be crossed off on the basis of the workout alone, so buyers are going to the barns to look at more horses than ever before. Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan told me he is essentially approaching it like a yearling sale.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Desert Party II

The focus is back on Dubai today for the UAE 2000 Guineas (UAE-G3), which includes Desert Party, Vineyard Haven, and Regal Ransom.

Jockey assignments for the 1600-meter (about 1 mile) race on the dirt are quite interesting, as Godolphin's top rider Frankie Dettori is on Desert Party. Vineyard Haven should blast this field based on his two-year-old form, but either he isn't cranked for this race or Desert Party has surpassed him in the eyes of the Godolphin camp.

Post time is 1:05 p.m. Eastern, and the race will be shown on TVG and HRTV.

Coming up in 10 minutes, former American-based horses City Style and Jose Adan are in the GNB Plate, a 1300-meter (about 6 1/2 furlongs) turf race.

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City Style, who ran a good fourth behind Donativum in the BC Juvenile Turf, used a strong stretch rally to romp in the GNB Plate. The City Zip colt was part of Sheikh Mohammed's acquisition of Stonerside Stable.

Jose Adan was used tracking the pace and faded...

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The jockey assignments proved an accurate tell in the UAE Guineas, as Desert Party reeled in stablemate Regal Ransom and scored a 4 3/4-length victory. Vineyard Haven, the most accomplished American two-year-old on dirt in 2008, finished a dull fourth.

Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, sold for $2.1-million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training. Consigned by Scanlon Training Center, he was the most expensive horse to sell at the training sales last year.

Hidden Brook, agent for Paul Pompa Jr. pinhooked him for $425,000 out of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.

Here is the replay link (races 4 and 6) from Dubai.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Picking the freshman sires of 2009

One of my favorite issues of the year has arrived – the Thoroughbred Times freshman sire forum.

This year’s guest selectors were Sobhy Sonbol of Zayat Stables, Eric Guillot of Southern Equine Stables, Florida pinhooker Eddie Woods, and Utah-based pinhooker John Brocklebank.

Bloodstock Editor John P. Sparkman invited them to pick five freshman sires each. To see a pdf of the magazine story, including the complete list of freshman sires for 2009 so you can make your own picks, click here.

The two-year-old sales will tell us much more about the new studs, such as how their progeny move and what kind of speed they have, but here are the five sires I’m most excited about at this time:

1) Ghostzapper
2) Rock Hard Ten
3) Closing Argument
4) Afleet Alex
5) Roman Ruler

Horse of the Year Ghostzapper is the obvious standout from this crop based on his initial $200,000 stud fee. A nine-length winner of his debut as a two-year-old, Ghostzapper is one of the fastest horses of the modern speed figure era. The three things I noted in his babies were balance, bone, and (perceived) class.

Rock Hard Ten is not a horse that will be expected to peak as a juvenile sire, but I saw several yearlings I absolutely loved, led by a $700,000 colt out of Tapstress that the Thoroughbred Legends bought at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga. Word is Bob Baffert will train him. I would love to see this son of Kris. S turn out to be an important sire.

Closing Argument got called up to Kentucky on the strength of his first crop of weanlings, and it was obvious why. The son of Successful Appeal is producing well muscled, athletic foals that simply look fast.

They are not fancy looking horses, but by the end of last year Afleet Alex started to win me over. And when a skilled pinhooker like Eddie Woods says they all move well, I take note. I love the sire’s combination of speed and stamina and his ability to win at six furlongs to 1 ½ miles.

For the fifth spot on my list I figure I better take a stallion who is getting fast, precocious types, which I narrowed to Forest Danger and Roman Ruler. Donato Lanni of Hill ’n’ Dale Farms, where Roman Ruler stands, says I would be a fool to leave Roman Ruler off my list. Lanni won my freshman sire contest in 2008, and he has a sharp eye for talent, so his advice broke the tie.

Who do you like from the freshman sire class of 2009?