The big change in my Kentucky Derby rankings came at the top this week, where I have pretty much decided on I Want Revenge as my Kentucky Derby pick.
This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.
Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).
Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.
Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).
This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.
1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
4 comments:
The Derby appears to have a lot of early pace this year...do you think this sets up a fly from the back type like Friesan Fire?
Early days yet, but I'm looking forward to handicapping when the field is set!
Cheers
Keith
As it looks right now, there should be plenty of front-end pace this year, which makes the race ripe for a closer who can get a clean trip.
I would consider Friesan Fire to be more of a stalker than a fly-from-the-back type. Same with I Want Revenge, who settles into a nice, rhythmic stride. Both horses should fit any pace scenario as long as they get a sensible ride.
It is early, but the Florida Derby horses are the only ones I'm still considering over I Want Revenge. I already know I will bet against Pioneerof the Nile transferring his synthetic form to dirt at the expected low price.
> I would consider Friesan Fire to be more of a stalker than a fly-from-the-back type.
I agree 100%. And horses with that running style win the Derby much more often than front-runners or deep-closers.
> It is early, but the Florida Derby horses are the only ones I'm still considering over I Want Revenge.
You've already ruled out Friesan Fire? Why? Is it because Joan Baez will be in the irons?
Friesan Fire is a nice horse, but for wagering purposes I will be looking at a couple who have run quite a bit faster on the figs. Plus his big top came on a sloppy, sealed track.
You will get a square price on him in all likelihood.
Post a Comment