After watching the workouts and gallops the last three days at Churchill Downs, two horses in particular have impressed me.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The toughest race in the world
They say the Kentucky Derby (G1) is the hardest race in the world to win.
It might also be the hardest races to pick the winner of, as my record of three wins in 16 years of handicapping the race attests (see list below).
Even when you identify the best horse in the race, it is far from a guarantee of victory. My list of losing Derby selections includes Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, Empire Maker, and Curlin.
And if the Derby wasn't hard enough already, now we have to evaluate horses that have been racing on synthetic surfaces, with speed figures that may or may not reflect their true ability.
So what is the best way to pick a Derby winner? "The best horse for the race at the best price" sounds like a good recipe. Identifying that horse is another matter...
Who were some of your historical derby picks, and who do you like in 2009?
2008 Colonel John 4.70-1 6th
2007 Curlin 5-1 3rd
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Greeley's Galaxy 21-1 11th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 WON
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Perfect Drift 7.90-1 3rd
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 WON
1999 Stephen Got Even 5.10-1 14th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 4-1 WON
1996 Skip Away 7.70-1 12th
1995 Timber Country 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.4-1 2nd
It might also be the hardest races to pick the winner of, as my record of three wins in 16 years of handicapping the race attests (see list below).
Even when you identify the best horse in the race, it is far from a guarantee of victory. My list of losing Derby selections includes Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, Empire Maker, and Curlin.
And if the Derby wasn't hard enough already, now we have to evaluate horses that have been racing on synthetic surfaces, with speed figures that may or may not reflect their true ability.
So what is the best way to pick a Derby winner? "The best horse for the race at the best price" sounds like a good recipe. Identifying that horse is another matter...
Who were some of your historical derby picks, and who do you like in 2009?
2008 Colonel John 4.70-1 6th
2007 Curlin 5-1 3rd
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Greeley's Galaxy 21-1 11th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 WON
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Perfect Drift 7.90-1 3rd
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 WON
1999 Stephen Got Even 5.10-1 14th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 4-1 WON
1996 Skip Away 7.70-1 12th
1995 Timber Country 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.4-1 2nd
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Racing must fix tote system
Amidst calls for technological upgrades to our antiquated tote system and better monitoring of wagering pools, the Association of Racing Commissioners International kicked off its annual meeting in Lexington on Tuesday.
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
Monday, April 20, 2009
Resisting Derby Fever (aka doing right by your horse)
Every year several horses are entered in the Kentucky Derby (G1) that have no business being in the field.
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Sales to Racetrack: The tale of Don Gato
Don Gato, the $800,000 Storm Cat colt that topped the 2008 Keeneland April sale of selected two-year-olds in training, makes his career debut in race 7 at Keeneland today.
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
Monday, April 13, 2009
Derby field comes into focus
We're now less than three weeks from the Kentucky Derby (G1), and most people agree on who the top five candidates are (in various orders) -- I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire.
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
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