I am sticking with I Want Revenge on top of my Triple Crown rankings, but it is by the slimmest of margins over Quality Road, who looked every bit like a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner when he turned back Dunkirk in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1).
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
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12 comments:
I agree with your comments about Pletcher's post-race comments. Dunkirk had his shot at Quality Road, and was beaten fair and square.
All this indignation over Dunkirk not getting in is misplaced since by the time April 29 (draw day) rolls around, he'll probably be 22nd or 23rd on the list.
If Dunkirk is not allowed in the field, I hope it puts heat on Churchill to improve the way the Derby field is chosen. The Polytrack race is a marketing gimmick, and using graded earnings alone is a flawed approach.
By relying only on purse values, Churchill is granting the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot the same weight as Grade 1 races such as the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby. This year it could result in one of the best horses in the crop being excluded from the race.
The Florida Derby was great. The top two finishers are both serious horses. I'm reserving judgement on I Want Revenge; I liked him last year at two, and there was plenty to like about his Gotham, but I just don't know. The Pamplemousse is impressive, but I'm hesitant to speculate on his dirt chances. I don't care for Pioneerof the Nile at all. I liked Musket Man's race last out, so I'm interested to see how he does in the Illinois Derby, but I don't see any horses being in the same class as Quality Road and Dunkirk right now.
I dislike the automatic entry, and wish that 3yo graded earnings would be weighted more heavily than 2yo graded earnings.
I have my doubts about the "win and you're in" concept, but there will always be a 21st horse.
Churchill may avoid the whole thing this year since Mafaaz is pointed toward the Bluegrass. If he wins, it is a moot point. If he loses badly, his connections don't seem the type to throw him to the wolves. It is ironic he is out of a mare named Complimentary Pass.
The graded stakes plan isn't perfect, but what would you suggest should takes its place?
When it comes down to it, both Dunkirk and Mafaaz are lightly raced colts. One won when he had to, the other didn't.
Bad timing? Maybe. But that's life.
The only redeeming quality to the "Win & You're In" race at Kempton was that it was won by a top owner (Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum) and a classy, knowledgable trainer (John Gosden).
Julie- for starters I would not make money earned in Grade 3 races equivalent to money earned in Grade 1 races. The dollars could be weighted or replaced with a point system.
Pete - I don't expect to you to have new system mapped out or anything, but how would you want a points system to work? It seems ripe for ties! What would the tie breaker be?
Would finishing second in a grade I count for more than winning a grade III?
What about races like the Arkansas Derby, which has been grade I caliber for several years, but is in fact a grade II? It seems like it might punish smaller racetracks that put on a good show with quality fields but don't have a grade I race...
To me, points make it even more subjective than pure earnings. But maybe I am just bitter about the BSC in college football and am afraid to see it happen to the Derby. ;)
I think a fair point system could be created pretty easily. Points are no more subjective than purse values. And subjectivity is not a bad thing as long as you get it right. ;)
If you don't like points, you could use a multiplier of X2 for Grade 2 earnings and X3 for Grade 1earnings.
You also could reserve 1-5 spots for invitational purposes.
There are a lot of better ways to do it than the current system. The goal should be to create the best field possible for America's most important race.
Utilizing an also-eligible list would help, too. It's a real shame when somebody is forced to scratch late and the Derby goes off with fewer than 20, even though worthy entrants are at the ready.
Mike Watchmaker from DRF just chimed in on the Derby earnings issue, advocating just about everything we've talked about here.
A few excerpts...
"For one, it's ridiculous that the graded earnings clause sees no distinction between the Delta Jackpot, run the first week of December, and the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, or Blue Grass just because all are $750,000 races..."
"It makes much more sense that a premium be placed on 3-year-old form, especially with today's horsemen running their best prospects less frequently. And the way to do that is to devalue 2-year-old graded earnings, perhaps by 50 percent..."
"Of course, Churchill could really do it up right. It could acknowledge the inherent imbalance of stakes purses, as epitomized by the $2 million UAE Derby, and abandon the graded stakes earnings clause altogether for a points system. Derby aspirants would earn points for finishing first, second, or third in graded stakes, with a sliding points scale determined by race grade (Grade 1 races would offer more points than Grade 2 races, etc.), whether the race was restricted to fillies or run on turf, or if it was a 2-year-old race. Such a point system would have to make sure that a second like Dunkirk's in the Grade 1 Florida Derby would be more valuable than a win in a Grade 2 sprint for 2-year-olds.
All of this might be too late for Dunkirk. But if Dunkirk is denied a spot in the Derby, then this Derby will simply not be the race it ought to be. And that should be impetus for change."
Well said Mike!
No love for Papa Clem? Boo-urns. I'd give him to you before Giant Oak, who seems to be better at racking up excuses than winning races.
With the way things are shaping up, it looks like Dunkirk will make it.
Looks like General Quarters, Quality Road and I Want Revenge could all be dueling and possibly setting it up in the final 1/8 for a stretch runner. Maybe Hold me Back or if Pioneer likes the surface might come sweeping by for the win?
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