Thoroughbred writer Pete Denk shares his experience covering North American Thoroughbred auctions and racing.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Breeders’ Cup: Our event is still going to be great

Breeders’ Cup officials hope Jess Jackson will change his mind about holding Rachel Alexandra out of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

But even if Jackson sticks to his position that Rachel will never again race on a synthetic surface, the Breeders’ Cup, at least publicly, is not sweating the decision.

“Our event is still going to be a great event,” said Breeders’ Cup Chief Marketing Officer Peter Land. “We’ll still have 80,000 to 100,000 people come. It’s still going to be a great television show and a great simulcast product.”

Jackson disagrees with the Breeders’ Cup’s decision to hold the event at Santa Anita Park, which has a synthetic Pro-Ride surface, for a second consecutive year. Jackson does not think the results of synthetic races are legitimate, nor does he think synthetics are safer than a well-maintained dirt surface.

Land and the management at Breeders’ Cup hope Jackson will change his mind before November 6-7.

“First of all it’s early. It’s only June, so we would hope that over the course of the summer it would be a shame if Jess didn’t have a change of heart,” Land said. “We obviously respect Jess and everything he’s done for the sport. He’s certainly a great sportsman. But more than anything else, we were surprised he would make an announcement this far out.”

Thanks to the synthetic experiment, American horses currently are competing on three different surfaces – dirt, turf, and synthetic. But no racetrack offers all three, so no matter where the Breeders’ Cup is held, it risks losing stars from one of them.

Land said he does not think surface should be that big of a deal.

“Some years it’s going to favor different horses on different tracks. It’s not unlike the PGA championships, some years the course will favor long hitters and some years it will favor putters,” Land said. “I think many sports in general have this built in testing mechanism that says if you’re a great champion you can persevere under conditions that might not be ideal.”

It would be nice if Land’s comparison with golf worked, but the reality is that very few horses are the same when they switch surfaces. Some great dirt horses have struggled to compete on the synthetics or turf. Just as many great European turf stars are a shadow of themselves when they try dirt.

When Breeders’ Cup committed to Santa Anita for two years it was a controversial decision, not only because no track had ever hosted two consecutive Cups, but because of how new and untested the synthetics were. Until the current American experiment, nowhere in the world had Grade 1 races been contested and world champions crowned on a synthetic track. Even in Europe, where synthetics are preferred to dirt, all the Group 1 races are on turf, compared to just a handful of Group 3’s on the synth.

Last year Europeans Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator ran first and second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the first time in the race’s 25-year history that Europeans swept the exacta. Jackson’s entrant in the race – Horse of the Year Curlin – finished a disappointing fourth. Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, which anecdotally at least favors turf horses over dirt horses, was seen as playing a major role in that result.

As the move to synthetics has alienated the connections of some American horses, it has won favor with the Europeans and helped Breeders’ Cup in its ongoing quest to become a true world championship. Land said he believes the net result is positive.

“We’re gonna have 150 of the best horses in the world competing this year. Are we going to lose a few American horses? Probably. But on balance, we might end up with more than 30 horses from Europe this year, and we’re a global championship televised all over the world,” Land said. “To have more horses from outside the United States competing I think is a good thing for the Breeders’ Cup and for the sport.”

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Night racing report

I was one of the 28,011 who packed into Churchill Downs for Friday's historic night racing card.

A few comments:

-Snafus aside, the increased handle and attendance are proof that night racing can work. The night had an electric feel to it even without a stakes race or marquee horse on the card.

-Racing still matters in Kentucky. Night racing gave the fans a reason to come out, and a huge, demographically diverse crowd turned out for the party.

-Yet again, Churchill seemed unconcerned with the experience of the common fan, who paid $10 entry fee to experience sauna-like conditions and wait in unbearably long lines. The betting lines were long, but you could literally miss two races waiting for food or drink.

-I have never sweated so much at a racetrack in my life. My party was set up in a box underneath the grandstand overhang, where air circulation was less than ideal. Also, the volume and treble on the speakers in the grandstand were set way too high, doing no favors for track announcer Mark Johnson's between race chatter.

Night racing has a lot of potential, and the people supported it. But of those 28,000, how many will want to come back to experience those conditions anytime soon? Churchill must find a way to make the track a more enjoyable experience for everyday fans.

It was good to hear the announcement from Bill Carstanjen, Churchill's executive vice president and chief operating officer, about decreased prices and increased staffing for the June 26 and July 2 night cards.

“More than 28,000 turned out for the debut of night racing at Churchill Downs and the evening was a great success on most every level, but our track fell short in one important area of guest service, our fans have spoken to us about their disappointment and we have listened,” Carstanjen said. “Last Friday was a special and historic night at Churchill Downs and we hope that every fan that shared the evening with us will always carry wonderful memories of the evening. But many fans were clearly unhappy with the unacceptable level of service offered in beer lines throughout the track. We share their frustration, apologize for the experience and vow it will not happen again. We’re hoping all fans who were with us for the debut of night racing under the Twin Spires will be back with us again this Friday and on Thursday, July 2 and give us a chance to make racing under the lights at Churchill Downs truly special for everyone.”

Friday, June 19, 2009

Night racing!


.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Despite temperatures in the 90s, a threat of storms, and a $10 admission fee, Churchill Downs is expecting a big crowd tonight for the debut of night racing.
.
The 11-race card averages 8.7 horses per race and is a stakes race away from being what I would call a decent weekend card. There are six claiming races, two turf allowances, a two-year-old filly maiden race, a maiden special on the turf, and a NW2 at seven furlongs on the main track.
.
The feature 10th race drew Triple Crown aspirant Flying Pegasus, who will try to use the seven-furlong allowance as a springboard for a second-half stakes campaign.
.
Since this figures to be more of a social night, I did my handicapping in advance and came away with opinions in four of the races. I've always wanted to be a newspaper handicapper. Too bad that job is nearly extinct...
.
Race 3, Mcl $30,000 (f&m), 1 1/16 miles
1 Metro Devil 5-2 Stalks from inside
6 Palin 20-1 Dropping speed, will refrain from political jokes
7 Queen Gracie 15-1 Ran ok on fast dirt
3 Saintly Shylock 12-1 Could improve
5 Terrell Cheney 2-1 Note barn change
4 Broadway Bertie 6-5 Will try to beat heavy chalk
2 Miss Siby 50-1 Cannot endorse
.
Race 4, NW1 (f&m), 5f turf
6 Maxinkuckee Miss 4-1 Shoud be strong on turn back
5 Ocean Colors 3-1 Well-bred, speed of the speed
7 Ten Lil Indians 12-1 Out of Polish Navy mare, could like turf
1 Rinterval (Ire) 9-2 Second to Lush Lashes in '07!
9 Rock 'n' Roll Gal 5-1 Spanish Steps filly was 155k 2yo purchase
4 Sun Valley Storm 20-1 Well-bred for this, steps up
3 County Lass 5-1 Adds to pace
2 Nadadora 10-1 Must improve
8 Just Pick Me 15-1 Indiana shipper
1A Humor and Lights 9-2 Sleeper on AE list
.
Race 5, MSW (2yo f), 4.5f
5 Rapport 7-2 475k Saratoga yearling, "Legends"
2 Ad Litem 5-1 Successful Appeal, good works
1 Miss Diane 4-1 Half of solid looking entry
1A Yes It's Valid 4-1 Half of solid looking entry
8 Sixtysix Margaux 3-1 Tote will tell if barn likes
9 Mesa Mirage 12-1 Sky Mesa, could surprise
6 Rita's Gold 12-1 Medallist could have a few fast ones
3 Mapatazzi 5-1 "Other" Asmussen
7 Imagine Now 15-1 Good juvenile sire, could need one
4 Bell's Shoes 12-1 Works look slow
.
Race 6, MSW, 1 1/16 miles turf
6 Just Right (Fr) 3-1 The key, if speed is holding on turf
1 Rotterdam 10-1 Turns it around at a price
2 Schramsberg 8-1 Big pedigree firster; Pletcher-Borel!?
9 Tigresco 12-1 Another firster with good family
5 Home Field 6-1 Live claiming outfit, turf blood on dam side
8 Lamm 10-1 Needs a little more oomph
3 Dahlgonit 8-1 Could share
4 Buriedbeyondbelief 10-1 Some upside potential
10 Whirling Thunder 5-2 Cannot endorse this chalk for the win
7 Go Kenny Go 20-1 Even South Park fans should give him one

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Beyer tweaks his formula

Andrew Beyer, the creator of the popular Beyer Speed Figures that appear in Daily Racing Form, has announced a change in the way he will calculate his figures for synthetic tracks.

The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.

At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.

His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.

Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.

No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.

But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.

Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.