Andrew Beyer, the creator of the popular Beyer Speed Figures that appear in Daily Racing Form, has announced a change in the way he will calculate his figures for synthetic tracks.
The change is based on an interesting finding. According to Beyer, the synthetic tracks are allowing slow horses to run a little faster while making fast horses run a little slower.
At tracks that installed synthetic surfaces, the average speed figure for bottom level maiden claimers increased by about three points. Meanwhile, the average winning figure for older male stakes horses decreased by about four points, Beyer says.
His findings support the lament that the synthetic tracks are preventing our fastest horses from performing to their ability, while aiding horses we previously judged to be inferior.
Here in Lexington, the seemingly unpredictable nature of synthetic racing has been demonstrated by the results of graded stakes races run at Keeneland Race Course since Polytrack was installed for the fall 2006 meeting.
No matter when or where the race, the wagering favorite typically wins around 30% of the time. It is one of the most powerful, consistent statistics in the sport.
But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period.
Paired with Beyer's finding that the synthetics help the slow and hurt the fast, it's one more reason to question whether we should be basing the future of the breed and running some of our most important races - such as the Breeders' Cup - on experimental synthetic tracks.
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"But on Keeneland's Polytrack, the favorite has won just six of 53 times - an 11.3% success rate over the three-year period."
Just out of curiosity, what was it the three years prior? It's just I know how some of my friends bet when they go to Keeneland. And it is a lot like "Oh, that one has on hot pink leggings! I'm betting him."
If any track might have odd betting results, it would be Keeneland because it gets so many non-racing people.
In general, I find Beyers helpful but also think they should be taken with a grain of salt.....human bias has to play a part sometimes.
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