After watching the workouts and gallops the last three days at Churchill Downs, two horses in particular have impressed me.
Friesan Fire’s five furlongs in :57.80 on Monday was not only the fastest of 49 works at the distance but seven lengths faster than the next closest time (which was turned in by Northern California-based closer Chocolate Candy, interestingly).
Back at the barn, Friesan Fire was the picture of a thriving horse. I envision him using his speed to gain good position from post position six and taking the lead turning for home. Trainer Larry Jones is very confident in the A.P. Indy colt’s chances.
The other horse that has impressed me is I Want Revenge. The way he settles into that long rhythmic stride tells me he will have no problem with 1 ¼ miles.
His incredible, troubled win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) already proved he can handle traffic and adversity like a professional racehorse. After waiting patiently by the gap Tuesday morning with the Twin Spires in the distance, I Want Revenge looked like he was merely galloping in his bullet four-furlong work in :47.20.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The toughest race in the world
They say the Kentucky Derby (G1) is the hardest race in the world to win.
It might also be the hardest races to pick the winner of, as my record of three wins in 16 years of handicapping the race attests (see list below).
Even when you identify the best horse in the race, it is far from a guarantee of victory. My list of losing Derby selections includes Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, Empire Maker, and Curlin.
And if the Derby wasn't hard enough already, now we have to evaluate horses that have been racing on synthetic surfaces, with speed figures that may or may not reflect their true ability.
So what is the best way to pick a Derby winner? "The best horse for the race at the best price" sounds like a good recipe. Identifying that horse is another matter...
Who were some of your historical derby picks, and who do you like in 2009?
2008 Colonel John 4.70-1 6th
2007 Curlin 5-1 3rd
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Greeley's Galaxy 21-1 11th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 WON
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Perfect Drift 7.90-1 3rd
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 WON
1999 Stephen Got Even 5.10-1 14th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 4-1 WON
1996 Skip Away 7.70-1 12th
1995 Timber Country 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.4-1 2nd
It might also be the hardest races to pick the winner of, as my record of three wins in 16 years of handicapping the race attests (see list below).
Even when you identify the best horse in the race, it is far from a guarantee of victory. My list of losing Derby selections includes Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, Empire Maker, and Curlin.
And if the Derby wasn't hard enough already, now we have to evaluate horses that have been racing on synthetic surfaces, with speed figures that may or may not reflect their true ability.
So what is the best way to pick a Derby winner? "The best horse for the race at the best price" sounds like a good recipe. Identifying that horse is another matter...
Who were some of your historical derby picks, and who do you like in 2009?
2008 Colonel John 4.70-1 6th
2007 Curlin 5-1 3rd
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Greeley's Galaxy 21-1 11th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 WON
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Perfect Drift 7.90-1 3rd
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 WON
1999 Stephen Got Even 5.10-1 14th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 4-1 WON
1996 Skip Away 7.70-1 12th
1995 Timber Country 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.4-1 2nd
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Racing must fix tote system
Amidst calls for technological upgrades to our antiquated tote system and better monitoring of wagering pools, the Association of Racing Commissioners International kicked off its annual meeting in Lexington on Tuesday.
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
Just 24 hours later we had another real life example of why the industry needs to take action on the issue. On Wednesday at New York City Off-Track Betting, $2 bets processed through AmTote were deposited into wagering pools as $200 bets.
The mistake affected pools at Aqueduct, Golden Gate Fields, Gulfstream Park, Indiana Downs, Keeneland Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs. (story)
The horse racing industry made a lot of recommendations and promises to improve tote security in the aftermath of the Fix Six scandal at the Breeders' Cup in 2002, when an Autotote employee exploited non-existent security measures and delays in the bet processing system to alter losing tickets into winners.
What has really changed since then? Not nearly enough.
A few states have taken up the issue (story), but it's arguable whether any of the objectives in this memo from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association have been fully achieved.
I think the following quote from John Sabini, chairman of the New York State Racing & Wagering Board, may sum up a big part of the problem.
"They were going on and on about how no stone is left unturned to protect the tribes and protect the casinos, to make sure the casino companies don't lose a nickel, lock-down security," Sabini told Thoroughbred Times senior writer Frank Angst at a gaming conference last year.
"Then I come to horse racing, I'm new to this, and ... You hear a lot of, 'It can't really be done right.' And it dawned on me that the difference between the two is if you steal from a casino, you're stealing the casino's money. If you steal from a pari-mutuel pool, most of the time it's the bettors' money. So there's less of an urgency to it."
Monday, April 20, 2009
Resisting Derby Fever (aka doing right by your horse)
Every year several horses are entered in the Kentucky Derby (G1) that have no business being in the field.
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
For some owners and trainers, the allure of America's greatest horse race is too much to turn down - even if their horse has proven (so far) to be too slow to match up with the best three-year-olds in the country and shown no indication they will improve at the Derby's 10-furlong distance.
Illinois Derby (G2) runner-up Giant Oak was not one of those horses, but his connections announced on Tuesday that the Giant's Causeway colt will bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown in favor of a summer turf campaign. (see story)
That announcement followed similar prudent decisions from the connections of Big Drama, Bittel Road, Charitable Man, Mafaaz, and Terrain.
Chicago-based trainer Chris Block, who conditions Giant Oak for husband and wife Rudy and Regina Tara, said it was not a difficult call.
"I’ve watched the Derby very closely over the last ten years and specifically watched some horses I felt didn’t have a chance in there. And I’ve seen how it absolutely compromised their careers," Block said. "So I always thought if I was ever in that position, I’d do what I thought was the right thing for the future of the horse."
Giant Oak stamped himself a Derby contender with a second-place finish in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. (KY Jockey Club S. replay)
Still a gangly, green horse, Giant Oak had considerable room for improvement. But five months later, the same thing can still be said.
Sent to Louisiana for his Triple Crown preparations, everything went wrong. A traffic-filled, nightmarish trip led to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G3). That was followed by a fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), a race contested on a sloppy, sealed track. Although beaten 9 1/4 lengths by winner Friesan Fire, Giant Oak finished just two lengths behind subsequent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem.
"The circumstances in Louisiana really didn’t allow him to grow mentally and give us an avenue to develop his style like we hoped," Block said.
That left the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 4 at Hawthorne Race Course as Giant Oak's final Derby audition. (Ill Derby replay)
Giant Oak showed improved early speed but was unable to run down Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Musket Man, who got a slight jump on him turning for home. The second-place finish was a step in the right direction, but not enough for Block to want to take him to Louisville.
"Other than the winner, there wasn't a lot in there. And the way I see it, Musket Man beat us fair and square," Block said. "One of the reasons I decided not to go to the Derby was that if I was in the paddock before the race, I don't even know what instructions I would give the rider. This horse is still a work in progress."
Giant Oak is not a pretty mover on any surface, but his long stride seems more efficient on turf, and that is where Block believes his future may be. (race replay of his career debut on turf)
"A horse like Giant Oak is why we get in this business," said 42-year-old Block, who has been training since 1989. "You’re hoping for a horse like him to come along, but we see a lot more upside for the development of this horse in passing the Derby."
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Sales to Racetrack: The tale of Don Gato
Don Gato, the $800,000 Storm Cat colt that topped the 2008 Keeneland April sale of selected two-year-olds in training, makes his career debut in race 7 at Keeneland today.
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
The race is a $50,000 maiden special weight for three-year-olds, at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. It drew a field of 11, and Don Gato has been tabbed at 6-to-1 on the morning line.
Don Gato is out of the stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare Here I Go. That makes him a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Summerly (Summer Squall), who won four stakes, all at two turns.
Bred in Kentucky by Tom VanMeter, Michael Lowenbaum & Dr. Rand E. Dankner, Don Gato was slow to come around as a juvenile, hence his entry in the last select juvenile sale on the calendar. He was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, as agent. Randy Hartley told me he only breezed Don Gato once before the sale and that the colt hadn't been pushed.
At the pre-sale under-tack show Don Gato worked one furlong in :10.20, and I had him galloping out in 24 flat. The track was lightning fast that day, as evidenced by the world record breeze of :9.60 by Cognito, a subsequent Saratoga maiden graduate who finished eighth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
You can watch Don Gato's workout from the sale here.
Although he was a bit immature, Don Gato went fast enough and had a good enough way of moving to capitalize on his primary attraction - his pedigree. Just a few days before he went through the ring, news of his sire Storm Cat's declining fertility broke. "They won't be making many more of these," said VanMeter.
Bloodstock agent Hanzly Albina signed the ticket for Don Gato on behalf of Azerbaijani businessman Mammad Huseynov. Huseynov later purchased Brookhill Farm in Lexington, see story.
Don Gato was turned out for 60 days after the sale at VanMeter's farm and then sent to trainer Ian Wilkes (both indications of a patient approach with the well-bred colt).
Don Gato spent the winter with Wilkes in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he worked regularly, although not terribly fast. He enters his career debut off three works at Churchill Downs.
I spoke to Wilkes this morning, and he reports Don Gato is a good looking colt who is just starting to come around.
"I’m pleased with the way he’s coming around. It's just taken him some time," Wilkes said. "He’s fit and ready to run, but mentally he’s still trying to catch on with what we're trying to do. The horses can't read what we paid for them."
When I asked Wilkes if he thought Don Gato had a chance to be a serious racehorse, he said, "Can you ask me that after the race?"
Race seven is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT.
---
Don Gato (#8) was 10th and last early but came flying late to finish second in his career debut. Here is the video replay courtesy of Keeneland. And here is the equibase chart.
The winner also was a big sale horse. Big Top, owned by My Meadowview Farm and trained by Nick Zito, is a Giant's Causeway colt out of Thorough Fair, by Quiet American. The half brother to Grade 2 winner Whywhywhy cost $1,050,000 at the 2006 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
I hope to talk to trainer Ian Wilkes in the morning and get his thoughts on Don Gato's performance.
---
Trainer Ian Wilkes reports Don Gato came out of the race, "a little tired, but fine."
Wilkes was happy with the way Don Gato finished the race, running his final three furlongs in a shade under 36 seconds.
"I was very pleased. You couldn’t ask for a better first start for him," Wilkes said Thursday morning. "He did a few things wrong in the race, but I think he’ll improve for the experience. He broke ok, but he’s never real fast out of the gate. He got a little spooky from those horses around him, but then he settled into stride. He’s just got to get a little more race savvy about him."
Wilkes said a maiden race at Churchill Downs will be Don Gato's next target.
"[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said he was a nice horse. He was very pleased with him," Wilkes said. "I think he’ll run long. He relaxes early. He’s got the looks and pedigree, so I don’t think there’s any distance limitations for him."
Monday, April 13, 2009
Derby field comes into focus
We're now less than three weeks from the Kentucky Derby (G1), and most people agree on who the top five candidates are (in various orders) -- I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire.
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
At the next level, I've boosted Hold Me Back up to #6 on my poll based on his strong win in the Lane's End Stakes (G2) and a good rallying second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). I love how this son of Giant's Causeway has moved forward from age two to three. Despite the distant fifth behind Old Fashioned in his only dirt start, I think Hold Me Back could surprise some people in Louisville.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Chocolate Candy is another horse getting a lot of consideration at that wide open #6 spot.
1) I Want Revenge: The likely favorite
2) Quality Road: Must overcome quarter crack
3) Dunkirk: Looks like he'll make the field after all
4) Pioneerof the Nile: Dirt is the big question
5) Friesan Fire: Great form in Louisiana
6) Hold Me Back: Like how he's developed at three
7) Chocolate Candy: Another who has never tried dirt
8) Papa Clem: Turning into a serious racehorse
9) General Quarters: Huge effort to win Blue Grass Stakes
10) Musket Man: Illinois Derby win was solid
11) Terrain: Hard trying horse not quite fast enough yet
12) Desert Party: With a crop this strong, I'm down on the Dubai route
13) Regal Ransom: Big improvement in UAE Derby
14) Win Willy: Flat 4th in Arkansas Derby, must bounce back
15) Mr. Hot Stuff: Still developing, never tried dirt
Monday, March 30, 2009
Derby trail getting interesting
I am sticking with I Want Revenge on top of my Triple Crown rankings, but it is by the slimmest of margins over Quality Road, who looked every bit like a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner when he turned back Dunkirk in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1).
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.
In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.
Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.
I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.
Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.
The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.
1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
An early Kentucky Derby pick: I Want Revenge
The big change in my Kentucky Derby rankings came at the top this week, where I have pretty much decided on I Want Revenge as my Kentucky Derby pick.
This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.
Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).
Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.
Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).
This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.
1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth
This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.
Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).
Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.
Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).
This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.
1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Live blogging from Barretts March
The 20th edition of the Barretts March sale of selected two-year-olds in training is about to get underway.
Here are my top ten picks and a few comments from buyers and sellers, as they appeared in today's issue of the Thoroughbred Times TODAY.
The declines we have seen at the two-year-old auctions this year are expected to continue, and some feel the future of Barretts March is in danger. I am hoping for some pleasant surprises tonight, but honestly there is not a lot of optimism in the air.
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Not surprisingly, the sale is off to a slow start. The half brother to I Want Revenge (Hip 15, Thunder Gulch-Meguial (arg), by Roy) RNA'd for a mere $60,000. Consignor Dave Showalter of NexStar said the reserve was $199,000 (although I later learned the horse went through without a reserve)
Word is that the first big price should be Hip 28, a Tiznow filly out of Misty Lee, by Level Sands, consigned by Scanlon Training Center.
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Bob Irvin’s C-Punch Ranch purchased the Tiznow filly for $390,000, highest price of the day so far. The light gray filly is out of a half sister to champion three-year-old filly Xtra Heat – the Level Sands mare Misty Lee.
Scanlon Training Center purchased her for $100,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale and consigned her at Barretts.
“She’s by a good sire, and she’s a filly with a lot of class,” said David Scanlon. “She came out here and showed herself very well. She moved real good in the video, and she’s a little lighter made filly. They’re saying those are the types of horses that are doing well out here on the synthetic tracks – lighter horses that get over the ground really easy.”
Scanlon got her as a bit of a steal at the September sale, considering how red hot Tiznow was at the time.
"Maybe because she didn’t look like the typical rugged Tiznow, maybe that put a few people off," Scanlon said. "She was a horse that kind of fell through the cracks as a yearling, but we got her in a good spot here. She more than lived up to our expectations."
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Hip 97, a Tapit filly out of Cross Your Heart, by Miswaki, just sold to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne for $540,000.
Todd Pletcher will train the filly for new owners Michael Tabor, John Magnier and Derrick Smith.
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Jess Jackson, who was underbidder on the Tapit filly, purchased the sale topper -- a Tiznow colt out of Hurricane Judy, by Storm Cat, for $650,000.
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Here are my top ten picks and a few comments from buyers and sellers, as they appeared in today's issue of the Thoroughbred Times TODAY.
The declines we have seen at the two-year-old auctions this year are expected to continue, and some feel the future of Barretts March is in danger. I am hoping for some pleasant surprises tonight, but honestly there is not a lot of optimism in the air.
---
Not surprisingly, the sale is off to a slow start. The half brother to I Want Revenge (Hip 15, Thunder Gulch-Meguial (arg), by Roy) RNA'd for a mere $60,000. Consignor Dave Showalter of NexStar said the reserve was $199,000 (although I later learned the horse went through without a reserve)
Word is that the first big price should be Hip 28, a Tiznow filly out of Misty Lee, by Level Sands, consigned by Scanlon Training Center.
---
Bob Irvin’s C-Punch Ranch purchased the Tiznow filly for $390,000, highest price of the day so far. The light gray filly is out of a half sister to champion three-year-old filly Xtra Heat – the Level Sands mare Misty Lee.
Scanlon Training Center purchased her for $100,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale and consigned her at Barretts.
“She’s by a good sire, and she’s a filly with a lot of class,” said David Scanlon. “She came out here and showed herself very well. She moved real good in the video, and she’s a little lighter made filly. They’re saying those are the types of horses that are doing well out here on the synthetic tracks – lighter horses that get over the ground really easy.”
Scanlon got her as a bit of a steal at the September sale, considering how red hot Tiznow was at the time.
"Maybe because she didn’t look like the typical rugged Tiznow, maybe that put a few people off," Scanlon said. "She was a horse that kind of fell through the cracks as a yearling, but we got her in a good spot here. She more than lived up to our expectations."
---
Hip 97, a Tapit filly out of Cross Your Heart, by Miswaki, just sold to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne for $540,000.
Todd Pletcher will train the filly for new owners Michael Tabor, John Magnier and Derrick Smith.
---
Jess Jackson, who was underbidder on the Tapit filly, purchased the sale topper -- a Tiznow colt out of Hurricane Judy, by Storm Cat, for $650,000.
---
Sunday, March 8, 2009
"Jockeys" gets second season
Animal Planet has renewed its reality series Jockeys for a second season, and filming began Saturday at Santa Anita, according to track announcer Trevor Denman.
Spoiler alert: Joe Talamo's girlfriend Elizabeth Ellis watches on television as her 19-year-old beau wins the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on board I Want Revenge. Talamo has been a central character, and I Want Revenge could provide the series with a fresh plot line and timely link to the Derby.
I've only watched three or four episodes of Jockeys, but I've largely found it to be cookie-cutter reality television, complete with interviews and plot lines that come off as scripted, not to mention heavy editing that stretches the term reality.
The show's attempts to build up a rivalry between young Talamo and journeyman Aaron Gryder were laughible. Check out this great dialogue:
Gryder: "I hate losing, but I REALLY hate losing to Joe Talamo."
Talamo: "It would feel great to beat AARON GRYDER."
Random race fan: "My favorite rider today is Aaron Gryder. I can get about $200 if I win. [EDIT to new clip] He's a great rider."
As Gryder rides out through the tunnel, the fan yells, "It's that time of day. It's time for you to win and for me to grin."
If the intent was to show bettor indifference to jockeys, as long as they cash a ticket, the clip succeeded. If it was an attempt to portray that particular bettor as an Aaron Gryder fan, epic fail!
Other annoyances include Denman's overdubbed race calls, which repeat over and over the jockeys' names instead of the horses. Also, the cut-up race clips completely fail to demonstrate the story, drama, or rhythm of a horse race.
That being said, Jockeys is a show with considerable potential, as it gives viewers an educational glimpse into the not always glamorous life of its subjects. Many of the fans I talked to at Santa Anita on Saturday seemed to genuinely like the show.
Spoiler alert: Joe Talamo's girlfriend Elizabeth Ellis watches on television as her 19-year-old beau wins the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on board I Want Revenge. Talamo has been a central character, and I Want Revenge could provide the series with a fresh plot line and timely link to the Derby.
I've only watched three or four episodes of Jockeys, but I've largely found it to be cookie-cutter reality television, complete with interviews and plot lines that come off as scripted, not to mention heavy editing that stretches the term reality.
The show's attempts to build up a rivalry between young Talamo and journeyman Aaron Gryder were laughible. Check out this great dialogue:
Gryder: "I hate losing, but I REALLY hate losing to Joe Talamo."
Talamo: "It would feel great to beat AARON GRYDER."
Random race fan: "My favorite rider today is Aaron Gryder. I can get about $200 if I win. [EDIT to new clip] He's a great rider."
As Gryder rides out through the tunnel, the fan yells, "It's that time of day. It's time for you to win and for me to grin."
If the intent was to show bettor indifference to jockeys, as long as they cash a ticket, the clip succeeded. If it was an attempt to portray that particular bettor as an Aaron Gryder fan, epic fail!
Other annoyances include Denman's overdubbed race calls, which repeat over and over the jockeys' names instead of the horses. Also, the cut-up race clips completely fail to demonstrate the story, drama, or rhythm of a horse race.
That being said, Jockeys is a show with considerable potential, as it gives viewers an educational glimpse into the not always glamorous life of its subjects. Many of the fans I talked to at Santa Anita on Saturday seemed to genuinely like the show.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Pinhooker profits plummet at Calder
Traditionally, the Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training is a place for pinhookers to make their biggest financial scores of the year with their best-bred, fastest horses.
Thanks to the struggling economy and an increasingly selective market for racehorses, those big profits evaporated for all but a handful of horsemen in 2009. On paper, the pinhookers escaped Calder on Tuesday with an estimated profit of $594,000. That ended a six-year streak during which profits averaged $11.4-million, and it was the worst result for pinhookers at Calder since the crash of 2002 when they lost $636,500.
Here are the profit/loss estimates for the pinhooked horses sold at Fasig-Tipton Calder the last eight years:
2009 +$594,000
2008 +$6,858,000
2007 +$6,202,000
2006 +$24,083,360
2005 +$10,291,840
2004 +$15,849,000
2003 +$5,313,000
2002 -$636,500
Of course, there were some bright sides to this year’s sale, the first being that there is still a market for two-year-olds in training. Many sellers had to let their two-year-olds go at approximately the same price they paid for them as yearlings, while others will try another sale later this year or race them themselves.
But ask a car dealer if he would be happy to move units right now at the slightest profit (or even a loss). The answer would be an emphatic yes.
We’re now two sales into the 2009 juvenile season, and the downturns at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s February sale of selected two-year-olds in training and the Calder sale looked fairly similar – about 30%.
Significant losses for the pinhookers could have serious ramifications on the sales and breeding industries. Still, it would be prudent to at least wait for the OBS March sale of selected two-year-olds in training before making any conclusions or predictions.
OBS has cataloged 523 horses for the two-day sale March 17-18, and if I had to pick one sale as the bellwether of the two-year-old market, OBS March is it because of its catalog size and ability to draw buyers at all levels.
Downward pressure on prices at the fall yearling sales already is a given, and there will be calls for stud fees to drop further. How big will the correction have to be? That picture will be clearer by the end of the month.
Thanks to the struggling economy and an increasingly selective market for racehorses, those big profits evaporated for all but a handful of horsemen in 2009. On paper, the pinhookers escaped Calder on Tuesday with an estimated profit of $594,000. That ended a six-year streak during which profits averaged $11.4-million, and it was the worst result for pinhookers at Calder since the crash of 2002 when they lost $636,500.
Here are the profit/loss estimates for the pinhooked horses sold at Fasig-Tipton Calder the last eight years:
2009 +$594,000
2008 +$6,858,000
2007 +$6,202,000
2006 +$24,083,360
2005 +$10,291,840
2004 +$15,849,000
2003 +$5,313,000
2002 -$636,500
Of course, there were some bright sides to this year’s sale, the first being that there is still a market for two-year-olds in training. Many sellers had to let their two-year-olds go at approximately the same price they paid for them as yearlings, while others will try another sale later this year or race them themselves.
But ask a car dealer if he would be happy to move units right now at the slightest profit (or even a loss). The answer would be an emphatic yes.
We’re now two sales into the 2009 juvenile season, and the downturns at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s February sale of selected two-year-olds in training and the Calder sale looked fairly similar – about 30%.
Significant losses for the pinhookers could have serious ramifications on the sales and breeding industries. Still, it would be prudent to at least wait for the OBS March sale of selected two-year-olds in training before making any conclusions or predictions.
OBS has cataloged 523 horses for the two-day sale March 17-18, and if I had to pick one sale as the bellwether of the two-year-old market, OBS March is it because of its catalog size and ability to draw buyers at all levels.
Downward pressure on prices at the fall yearling sales already is a given, and there will be calls for stud fees to drop further. How big will the correction have to be? That picture will be clearer by the end of the month.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll (3-2-09)
A week after Dunkirk jumped all the way up to my #2 spot, I'm putting impressive Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Quality Road #3 overall. While it may seem I'm overvaluing the flavor of the week here, both of these colts have the pedigree, speed figures, and physical type to compete in the Triple Crown. Quality Road replaces Midshipman, who fell into the Dubai black hole and is out of the TC.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.
1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Florida Pick 4 rule unfair to bettors
Last Thursday's pick four at Gulfstream Park was the latest injustice done to bettors, who continue to be a largely voiceless, under-represented group despite their contributons to the industry.
Race 6 was the first leg of the pick four, and when two horses were scratched out of the gate right before the race began, many bettors assumed they would receive refunds on the scratched horses since the scratches occurred prior to the first leg of the series and the horses were in the first leg.
Wrong! Gulfstream transferred all those bets to the 6-to-5 post-time favorite Alice's Halo. So if you were betting against Alice's Halo, now you were betting on him, in multiple combinations for some people.
I cannot think of any other business that would do this to its customers. Unable to provide the service you have purchased, they keep your money and spend it as they see fit.
As a side note, if a scratch occurs in the first leg of a pick three at Gulfstream, those wagers are appropriately refunded. Why should a pick four be different?
I called Gulfstream's Director of Mutuels Edward Mackie. He was familiar with the race in question.
"We got about a million calls on that one," Mackie said. "In the pick three you get a refund, but in the pick four and pick six, your money goes on the post-time favorite. It's a state law in Florida."
State law or not, it's a terrible rule.
To Florida and any other state that may revisit this rule in the future: if a horse scratches out of a multi-race bet before the series begins (particularly in the first leg), all wagers on that horse should be refunded.
You do not change my win bets for me when my horse scratches, or if a horse I wheel underneath in a trifecta scratches. So please do not change my selections in the pick four.
Race 6 was the first leg of the pick four, and when two horses were scratched out of the gate right before the race began, many bettors assumed they would receive refunds on the scratched horses since the scratches occurred prior to the first leg of the series and the horses were in the first leg.
Wrong! Gulfstream transferred all those bets to the 6-to-5 post-time favorite Alice's Halo. So if you were betting against Alice's Halo, now you were betting on him, in multiple combinations for some people.
I cannot think of any other business that would do this to its customers. Unable to provide the service you have purchased, they keep your money and spend it as they see fit.
As a side note, if a scratch occurs in the first leg of a pick three at Gulfstream, those wagers are appropriately refunded. Why should a pick four be different?
I called Gulfstream's Director of Mutuels Edward Mackie. He was familiar with the race in question.
"We got about a million calls on that one," Mackie said. "In the pick three you get a refund, but in the pick four and pick six, your money goes on the post-time favorite. It's a state law in Florida."
State law or not, it's a terrible rule.
To Florida and any other state that may revisit this rule in the future: if a horse scratches out of a multi-race bet before the series begins (particularly in the first leg), all wagers on that horse should be refunded.
You do not change my win bets for me when my horse scratches, or if a horse I wheel underneath in a trifecta scratches. So please do not change my selections in the pick four.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Race fans love 10-cent supers
Despite initial resistance from some of the major American racetrack operators, reduced minimum increment wagers such as 10-cent superfectas and 50-cent Pick 4s seem to be a big hit with the everyday racing fan.
(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)
I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.
Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.
The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.
(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)
I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.
Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.
The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Kentucky Derby Poll 2-23
Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Sale time!
The parking lot here at the OBS sales grounds is overflowing and the pavilion is as crowded as I've seen it. Maybe it's the promise of a new two-year-old crop. Or perhaps the anticipation of value has brought more buyers to Ocala. Then again, maybe it's just a bunch of Ocala-ites who turned out to watch a horse sale.
We'll know soon enough. The first horse should be in the ring any minute. Provided they vet ok, hips 1, 4, and 14 ought to hit six figures.
1 $300,000
4 $100,000
14 $127,000
Here is my Short List from the TODAY newsletter . This a deep group, so I had to make some tough choices.
For example, one of my favorite horses was actually Hip 197, a Concorde's Tune filly I left off my list on sire power. Her workout was awesome. Click on Hip 197 after you go here.
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As it turned out, quite a few people hung around to take a shot at the Concorde's Tune filly, who ultimately sold for $225,000 to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne. She'll be one to watch for at the track.
We'll know soon enough. The first horse should be in the ring any minute. Provided they vet ok, hips 1, 4, and 14 ought to hit six figures.
1 $300,000
4 $100,000
14 $127,000
Here is my Short List from the TODAY newsletter . This a deep group, so I had to make some tough choices.
For example, one of my favorite horses was actually Hip 197, a Concorde's Tune filly I left off my list on sire power. Her workout was awesome. Click on Hip 197 after you go here.
---
As it turned out, quite a few people hung around to take a shot at the Concorde's Tune filly, who ultimately sold for $225,000 to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne. She'll be one to watch for at the track.
Freshman sires at OBS Feb
It is only one breeze show, so it's far from the big picture, but I thought three freshman sires made strong showings at Friday's breeze show down here in Ocala.
Here is the hip-by-hip video link. And here are a few of the key works to check out from the freshman sires:
As a Grade 1 winning juvenile by Storm Cat, it should be no surprise if Consolidator's foals are quick and early, and that's exactly what hips 86 and 119 appear to be, with an emphasis on quick.
Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) was well-represented by the freakishly fast colt hip 72.
Hips 95 and 38, fillies by Grade 1 winner Purge (sorry, no conformation picture in the stallion directory), turned in what I thought were two of the best breezes in the sale.
Here is the hip-by-hip video link. And here are a few of the key works to check out from the freshman sires:
As a Grade 1 winning juvenile by Storm Cat, it should be no surprise if Consolidator's foals are quick and early, and that's exactly what hips 86 and 119 appear to be, with an emphasis on quick.
Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) was well-represented by the freakishly fast colt hip 72.
Hips 95 and 38, fillies by Grade 1 winner Purge (sorry, no conformation picture in the stallion directory), turned in what I thought were two of the best breezes in the sale.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Reporting from Ocala
I'm down in Ocala for the February two-year-old sale, which is Tuesday.
After watching videos and walking the barns today I've come away with a not-so-short list of 47! There are some nice horses in here this year. I have to get those 47 down to 10 for my short list that will run in the Thoroughbred Times TODAY newsletter on sale day.
The times were blazing on the OBS synthetic SafeTrack. Twenty-one horses worked one furlong in less than ten seconds! click here for the under-tack times and here for the videos
The synthetic tracks seem to make most horses look like good movers. And with this year's fast times (probably a click faster than last year) the gap between the fastest horse and the slowest horse has shortened.
This means less horses can be crossed off on the basis of the workout alone, so buyers are going to the barns to look at more horses than ever before. Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan told me he is essentially approaching it like a yearling sale.
After watching videos and walking the barns today I've come away with a not-so-short list of 47! There are some nice horses in here this year. I have to get those 47 down to 10 for my short list that will run in the Thoroughbred Times TODAY newsletter on sale day.
The times were blazing on the OBS synthetic SafeTrack. Twenty-one horses worked one furlong in less than ten seconds! click here for the under-tack times and here for the videos
The synthetic tracks seem to make most horses look like good movers. And with this year's fast times (probably a click faster than last year) the gap between the fastest horse and the slowest horse has shortened.
This means less horses can be crossed off on the basis of the workout alone, so buyers are going to the barns to look at more horses than ever before. Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan told me he is essentially approaching it like a yearling sale.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Desert Party II
The focus is back on Dubai today for the UAE 2000 Guineas (UAE-G3), which includes Desert Party, Vineyard Haven, and Regal Ransom.
Jockey assignments for the 1600-meter (about 1 mile) race on the dirt are quite interesting, as Godolphin's top rider Frankie Dettori is on Desert Party. Vineyard Haven should blast this field based on his two-year-old form, but either he isn't cranked for this race or Desert Party has surpassed him in the eyes of the Godolphin camp.
Post time is 1:05 p.m. Eastern, and the race will be shown on TVG and HRTV.
Coming up in 10 minutes, former American-based horses City Style and Jose Adan are in the GNB Plate, a 1300-meter (about 6 1/2 furlongs) turf race.
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City Style, who ran a good fourth behind Donativum in the BC Juvenile Turf, used a strong stretch rally to romp in the GNB Plate. The City Zip colt was part of Sheikh Mohammed's acquisition of Stonerside Stable.
Jose Adan was used tracking the pace and faded...
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The jockey assignments proved an accurate tell in the UAE Guineas, as Desert Party reeled in stablemate Regal Ransom and scored a 4 3/4-length victory. Vineyard Haven, the most accomplished American two-year-old on dirt in 2008, finished a dull fourth.
Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, sold for $2.1-million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training. Consigned by Scanlon Training Center, he was the most expensive horse to sell at the training sales last year.
Hidden Brook, agent for Paul Pompa Jr. pinhooked him for $425,000 out of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.
Here is the replay link (races 4 and 6) from Dubai.
Jockey assignments for the 1600-meter (about 1 mile) race on the dirt are quite interesting, as Godolphin's top rider Frankie Dettori is on Desert Party. Vineyard Haven should blast this field based on his two-year-old form, but either he isn't cranked for this race or Desert Party has surpassed him in the eyes of the Godolphin camp.
Post time is 1:05 p.m. Eastern, and the race will be shown on TVG and HRTV.
Coming up in 10 minutes, former American-based horses City Style and Jose Adan are in the GNB Plate, a 1300-meter (about 6 1/2 furlongs) turf race.
---
City Style, who ran a good fourth behind Donativum in the BC Juvenile Turf, used a strong stretch rally to romp in the GNB Plate. The City Zip colt was part of Sheikh Mohammed's acquisition of Stonerside Stable.
Jose Adan was used tracking the pace and faded...
---
The jockey assignments proved an accurate tell in the UAE Guineas, as Desert Party reeled in stablemate Regal Ransom and scored a 4 3/4-length victory. Vineyard Haven, the most accomplished American two-year-old on dirt in 2008, finished a dull fourth.
Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, sold for $2.1-million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training. Consigned by Scanlon Training Center, he was the most expensive horse to sell at the training sales last year.
Hidden Brook, agent for Paul Pompa Jr. pinhooked him for $425,000 out of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.
Here is the replay link (races 4 and 6) from Dubai.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Picking the freshman sires of 2009
One of my favorite issues of the year has arrived – the Thoroughbred Times freshman sire forum.
This year’s guest selectors were Sobhy Sonbol of Zayat Stables, Eric Guillot of Southern Equine Stables, Florida pinhooker Eddie Woods, and Utah-based pinhooker John Brocklebank.
Bloodstock Editor John P. Sparkman invited them to pick five freshman sires each. To see a pdf of the magazine story, including the complete list of freshman sires for 2009 so you can make your own picks, click here.
The two-year-old sales will tell us much more about the new studs, such as how their progeny move and what kind of speed they have, but here are the five sires I’m most excited about at this time:
1) Ghostzapper
2) Rock Hard Ten
3) Closing Argument
4) Afleet Alex
5) Roman Ruler
Horse of the Year Ghostzapper is the obvious standout from this crop based on his initial $200,000 stud fee. A nine-length winner of his debut as a two-year-old, Ghostzapper is one of the fastest horses of the modern speed figure era. The three things I noted in his babies were balance, bone, and (perceived) class.
Rock Hard Ten is not a horse that will be expected to peak as a juvenile sire, but I saw several yearlings I absolutely loved, led by a $700,000 colt out of Tapstress that the Thoroughbred Legends bought at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga. Word is Bob Baffert will train him. I would love to see this son of Kris. S turn out to be an important sire.
Closing Argument got called up to Kentucky on the strength of his first crop of weanlings, and it was obvious why. The son of Successful Appeal is producing well muscled, athletic foals that simply look fast.
They are not fancy looking horses, but by the end of last year Afleet Alex started to win me over. And when a skilled pinhooker like Eddie Woods says they all move well, I take note. I love the sire’s combination of speed and stamina and his ability to win at six furlongs to 1 ½ miles.
For the fifth spot on my list I figure I better take a stallion who is getting fast, precocious types, which I narrowed to Forest Danger and Roman Ruler. Donato Lanni of Hill ’n’ Dale Farms, where Roman Ruler stands, says I would be a fool to leave Roman Ruler off my list. Lanni won my freshman sire contest in 2008, and he has a sharp eye for talent, so his advice broke the tie.
Who do you like from the freshman sire class of 2009?
This year’s guest selectors were Sobhy Sonbol of Zayat Stables, Eric Guillot of Southern Equine Stables, Florida pinhooker Eddie Woods, and Utah-based pinhooker John Brocklebank.
Bloodstock Editor John P. Sparkman invited them to pick five freshman sires each. To see a pdf of the magazine story, including the complete list of freshman sires for 2009 so you can make your own picks, click here.
The two-year-old sales will tell us much more about the new studs, such as how their progeny move and what kind of speed they have, but here are the five sires I’m most excited about at this time:
1) Ghostzapper
2) Rock Hard Ten
3) Closing Argument
4) Afleet Alex
5) Roman Ruler
Horse of the Year Ghostzapper is the obvious standout from this crop based on his initial $200,000 stud fee. A nine-length winner of his debut as a two-year-old, Ghostzapper is one of the fastest horses of the modern speed figure era. The three things I noted in his babies were balance, bone, and (perceived) class.
Rock Hard Ten is not a horse that will be expected to peak as a juvenile sire, but I saw several yearlings I absolutely loved, led by a $700,000 colt out of Tapstress that the Thoroughbred Legends bought at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga. Word is Bob Baffert will train him. I would love to see this son of Kris. S turn out to be an important sire.
Closing Argument got called up to Kentucky on the strength of his first crop of weanlings, and it was obvious why. The son of Successful Appeal is producing well muscled, athletic foals that simply look fast.
They are not fancy looking horses, but by the end of last year Afleet Alex started to win me over. And when a skilled pinhooker like Eddie Woods says they all move well, I take note. I love the sire’s combination of speed and stamina and his ability to win at six furlongs to 1 ½ miles.
For the fifth spot on my list I figure I better take a stallion who is getting fast, precocious types, which I narrowed to Forest Danger and Roman Ruler. Donato Lanni of Hill ’n’ Dale Farms, where Roman Ruler stands, says I would be a fool to leave Roman Ruler off my list. Lanni won my freshman sire contest in 2008, and he has a sharp eye for talent, so his advice broke the tie.
Who do you like from the freshman sire class of 2009?
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