Derby trail getting interesting

I am sticking with I Want Revenge on top of my Triple Crown rankings, but it is by the slimmest of margins over Quality Road, who looked every bit like a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner when he turned back Dunkirk in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1).

If you factor in ground loss, there was not much between Quality Road and Dunkirk, although I was so impressed by the way Quality Road responded when Dunkirk got along side of him.

In a heat-of-the-battle interview with ESPN right after the race, trainer Todd Pletcher blamed the fast track and alleged a speed bias as the reason for Dunkirk's defeat. No excuse was needed. Dunkirk ran huge and simply got beat by a better horse on the day.

Pletcher should save his outrage for Churchill's qualifying rules, because it will be a travesty if Churchill's attempt to market the race in Europe (by giving a minor Polytrack stakes winner a guaranteed spot in the Derby) ends up excluding one of the top members of a very promising crop. With $150,000 in graded earnings, Dunkirk is on the bubble to make the field in Louisville.

I'm not sure what to think of Regal Ransom's defeat of his more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2). Speed was extremely good at Nad al Sheba on Saturday (more so than at Gulfstream, I thought), and Regal Ransom got an excellent ride from Alan Garcia. I think both the Dubai-based colts are nice horses, but they have a difficult task ahead of them.

Very few public handicappers seem to think Win Willy's upset victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was anything more than a fluke. I think he is underrated. I am also looking for Imperial Council to take another step forward in this Saturday's Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct.

The showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) promises to be an entertaining race, although I don't particularly like either of their chances to transfer their synthetic form to a dirt track. The betting public is likely to over-emphasize the result of this race as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.

1) I Want Revenge: Set for second cross-country trip.
2) Quality Road: Could not be more impressed with his Florida Derby.
3) Dunkirk: Ran huge in defeat.
4) Friesan Fire: Still done nothing wrong.
5) Pioneerof the Nile: Very nice horse, but surface questions.
6) Old Fashioned: Must relax in Arkansas Derby.
7) Win Willy: My current longshot pick.
8) Desert Party: Puzzling loss in UAE Derby.
9) The Pamplemousse: Has "the look of eagles."
10) Imperial Council: Should be closer to pace in Wood Memorial.
11) Chocolate Candy: Live North Cal longshot.
12) Regal Ransom: Shocked his stablemate in UAE Derby.
13) Theregoesjojo: Bad ride in Fla Derby, but 10f may be too long anyway.
14) Musket Man: Developed nicely in Tampa.
15) Giant Oak: One more shot to join party.

An early Kentucky Derby pick: I Want Revenge

The big change in my Kentucky Derby rankings came at the top this week, where I have pretty much decided on I Want Revenge as my Kentucky Derby pick.

This won't change until at least March 28 when the Florida Derby (G1) is run! Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo should be in that field, and all three have potential to make major moves in the rankings.

Back to I Want Revenge, I loved his impressive second in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and was puzzled by his dull third in the Robert B. Lewis (G2).

Sensing that it was Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface that was holding him back, trainer Jeff Mullins shipped I Want Revenge east for the Gotham Stakes (G3) , and the colt's first try on a dirt track was an eye-opener.

Galloping along with pacesetter Mr. Fantasy, I Want Revenge ran his final 5/16 in just under 30 seconds, a very quick finish for a dirt race. His rating ability and stride suggest added ground should not be a problem, and his dam Meguial (Arg) finished second in the 10-furlong Argentine Oaks (Arg-G1).

This weekend's preps consist of three polytrack races at Turfway Park, and the $50,000 Private Terms at Laurel, so there shouldn't be any serious changes.

1. I Want Revenge : The pick!
2. Friesan Fire : Done nothing wrong this year
3. Pioneerof the Nile : Will he like dirt?
4. Old Fashioned : Must learn to conserve his considerable energy
5. Dunkirk : Fla Derby will tell if it was too much, too soon
6. Quality Road : Fla Derby will provide tests with added weight, two turns
7. Desert Party : Figures to dominate UAE Derby
8. The Pamplemousse : Awesome front runner on the synth
9. Win Willy : I think upset Rebel winner is for real
10. Theregoesjojo : Could take big step forward in Fla Derby
11. Imperial Council : Distant runner-up in Gotham still a contender
12. Chocolate Candy : First North Cal Derby horse I've liked in ages
13. Musket Man : Nice win at Tampa for steady developer
14. Patena : Hope sloppy, sealed track was excuse in Louisiana
15. Giant Oak : Look for him down the road on turf or synth

Live blogging from Barretts March

The 20th edition of the Barretts March sale of selected two-year-olds in training is about to get underway.

Here are my top ten picks and a few comments from buyers and sellers, as they appeared in today's issue of the Thoroughbred Times TODAY.

The declines we have seen at the two-year-old auctions this year are expected to continue, and some feel the future of Barretts March is in danger. I am hoping for some pleasant surprises tonight, but honestly there is not a lot of optimism in the air.

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Not surprisingly, the sale is off to a slow start. The half brother to I Want Revenge (Hip 15, Thunder Gulch-Meguial (arg), by Roy) RNA'd for a mere $60,000. Consignor Dave Showalter of NexStar said the reserve was $199,000 (although I later learned the horse went through without a reserve)

Word is that the first big price should be Hip 28, a Tiznow filly out of Misty Lee, by Level Sands, consigned by Scanlon Training Center.

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Bob Irvin’s C-Punch Ranch purchased the Tiznow filly for $390,000, highest price of the day so far. The light gray filly is out of a half sister to champion three-year-old filly Xtra Heat – the Level Sands mare Misty Lee.

Scanlon Training Center purchased her for $100,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale and consigned her at Barretts.

“She’s by a good sire, and she’s a filly with a lot of class,” said David Scanlon. “She came out here and showed herself very well. She moved real good in the video, and she’s a little lighter made filly. They’re saying those are the types of horses that are doing well out here on the synthetic tracks – lighter horses that get over the ground really easy.”

Scanlon got her as a bit of a steal at the September sale, considering how red hot Tiznow was at the time.

"Maybe because she didn’t look like the typical rugged Tiznow, maybe that put a few people off," Scanlon said. "She was a horse that kind of fell through the cracks as a yearling, but we got her in a good spot here. She more than lived up to our expectations."

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Hip 97, a Tapit filly out of Cross Your Heart, by Miswaki, just sold to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne for $540,000.

Todd Pletcher will train the filly for new owners Michael Tabor, John Magnier and Derrick Smith.

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Jess Jackson, who was underbidder on the Tapit filly, purchased the sale topper -- a Tiznow colt out of Hurricane Judy, by Storm Cat, for $650,000.

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"Jockeys" gets second season

Animal Planet has renewed its reality series Jockeys for a second season, and filming began Saturday at Santa Anita, according to track announcer Trevor Denman.

Spoiler alert: Joe Talamo's girlfriend Elizabeth Ellis watches on television as her 19-year-old beau wins the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on board I Want Revenge. Talamo has been a central character, and I Want Revenge could provide the series with a fresh plot line and timely link to the Derby.

I've only watched three or four episodes of Jockeys, but I've largely found it to be cookie-cutter reality television, complete with interviews and plot lines that come off as scripted, not to mention heavy editing that stretches the term reality.

The show's attempts to build up a rivalry between young Talamo and journeyman Aaron Gryder were laughible. Check out this great dialogue:

Gryder: "I hate losing, but I REALLY hate losing to Joe Talamo."
Talamo: "It would feel great to beat AARON GRYDER."

Random race fan: "My favorite rider today is Aaron Gryder. I can get about $200 if I win. [EDIT to new clip] He's a great rider."

As Gryder rides out through the tunnel, the fan yells, "It's that time of day. It's time for you to win and for me to grin."

If the intent was to show bettor indifference to jockeys, as long as they cash a ticket, the clip succeeded. If it was an attempt to portray that particular bettor as an Aaron Gryder fan, epic fail!

Other annoyances include Denman's overdubbed race calls, which repeat over and over the jockeys' names instead of the horses. Also, the cut-up race clips completely fail to demonstrate the story, drama, or rhythm of a horse race.

That being said, Jockeys is a show with considerable potential, as it gives viewers an educational glimpse into the not always glamorous life of its subjects. Many of the fans I talked to at Santa Anita on Saturday seemed to genuinely like the show.

Pinhooker profits plummet at Calder

Traditionally, the Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training is a place for pinhookers to make their biggest financial scores of the year with their best-bred, fastest horses.

Thanks to the struggling economy and an increasingly selective market for racehorses, those big profits evaporated for all but a handful of horsemen in 2009. On paper, the pinhookers escaped Calder on Tuesday with an estimated profit of $594,000. That ended a six-year streak during which profits averaged $11.4-million, and it was the worst result for pinhookers at Calder since the crash of 2002 when they lost $636,500.

Here are the profit/loss estimates for the pinhooked horses sold at Fasig-Tipton Calder the last eight years:

2009 +$594,000
2008 +$6,858,000
2007 +$6,202,000
2006 +$24,083,360
2005 +$10,291,840
2004 +$15,849,000
2003 +$5,313,000
2002 -$636,500

Of course, there were some bright sides to this year’s sale, the first being that there is still a market for two-year-olds in training. Many sellers had to let their two-year-olds go at approximately the same price they paid for them as yearlings, while others will try another sale later this year or race them themselves.

But ask a car dealer if he would be happy to move units right now at the slightest profit (or even a loss). The answer would be an emphatic yes.

We’re now two sales into the 2009 juvenile season, and the downturns at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s February sale of selected two-year-olds in training and the Calder sale looked fairly similar – about 30%.

Significant losses for the pinhookers could have serious ramifications on the sales and breeding industries. Still, it would be prudent to at least wait for the OBS March sale of selected two-year-olds in training before making any conclusions or predictions.

OBS has cataloged 523 horses for the two-day sale March 17-18, and if I had to pick one sale as the bellwether of the two-year-old market, OBS March is it because of its catalog size and ability to draw buyers at all levels.

Downward pressure on prices at the fall yearling sales already is a given, and there will be calls for stud fees to drop further. How big will the correction have to be? That picture will be clearer by the end of the month.

Kentucky Derby Poll (3-2-09)

A week after Dunkirk jumped all the way up to my #2 spot, I'm putting impressive Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Quality Road #3 overall. While it may seem I'm overvaluing the flavor of the week here, both of these colts have the pedigree, speed figures, and physical type to compete in the Triple Crown. Quality Road replaces Midshipman, who fell into the Dubai black hole and is out of the TC.

The Pamplemousse climbs two spots from #11 to #9 for his front-running tour de force in the Sham Stakes (G3). I like this horse a lot, but given his high, looping running action and lack of dirt form, I can't move him any higher at this time.

1. Old Fashioned Consensus #1 but still has things to prove.
2. Dunkirk Tremendous upside off two lifetime starts.
3. Quality Road All signs indicate he's a serious TC candidate.
4. Desert Party Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
5. Pioneer of the Nile Derby will be his first dirt race.
6. Stardom Bound Should win SA Oaks in hand.
7. Patena Anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire Good form, still improving.
9. The Pamplemousse Keeps earning more respect.
10. Mr. Fantasy Class test looms in Gotham for fast colt.
11. Imperial Council Little room for error as he stretches out.
12. Chocolate Candy Better than your typical North Cal contender.
13. Flying Pegasus Dangerous if he can move forward.
14. Silver City Connections must determine his best distance.
15. Giant Oak Plenty of potential, still learning to run.

Florida Pick 4 rule unfair to bettors

Last Thursday's pick four at Gulfstream Park was the latest injustice done to bettors, who continue to be a largely voiceless, under-represented group despite their contributons to the industry.

Race 6 was the first leg of the pick four, and when two horses were scratched out of the gate right before the race began, many bettors assumed they would receive refunds on the scratched horses since the scratches occurred prior to the first leg of the series and the horses were in the first leg.

Wrong! Gulfstream transferred all those bets to the 6-to-5 post-time favorite Alice's Halo. So if you were betting against Alice's Halo, now you were betting on him, in multiple combinations for some people.

I cannot think of any other business that would do this to its customers. Unable to provide the service you have purchased, they keep your money and spend it as they see fit.

As a side note, if a scratch occurs in the first leg of a pick three at Gulfstream, those wagers are appropriately refunded. Why should a pick four be different?

I called Gulfstream's Director of Mutuels Edward Mackie. He was familiar with the race in question.

"We got about a million calls on that one," Mackie said. "In the pick three you get a refund, but in the pick four and pick six, your money goes on the post-time favorite. It's a state law in Florida."

State law or not, it's a terrible rule.

To Florida and any other state that may revisit this rule in the future: if a horse scratches out of a multi-race bet before the series begins (particularly in the first leg), all wagers on that horse should be refunded.

You do not change my win bets for me when my horse scratches, or if a horse I wheel underneath in a trifecta scratches. So please do not change my selections in the pick four.

Race fans love 10-cent supers

Despite initial resistance from some of the major American racetrack operators, reduced minimum increment wagers such as 10-cent superfectas and 50-cent Pick 4s seem to be a big hit with the everyday racing fan.

(Click here to read Thoroughbred Times Senior Writer Frank Angst's story on the topic.)

I know I love them. I never played a superfecta until the 10-cent option was made available. The Pick 4 is one of my favorite bets, and my action has consistently steered toward tracks that offer a combination of good racing and a 50-cent pick 4, such as Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.

Even if the reduced minimums do not send handle sky-rocketing, allowing more fans to participate at an affordable unit wager is a good thing for racing.

The only bet that reduced minimums might not be a good thing for is the pick six. A $2 minimum makes it a very difficult bet for recreational players to cover, but the degree of difficulty in hitting a pick 6 is what makes all those monster carryovers possible.

Kentucky Derby Poll 2-23

Undefeated Dunkirk jumps all the way to #2 on my rankings this week based on his very impressive two-turn win at Gulfstream. If you factor in ground loss, it was one of the first Derby-worthy performances we've seen from this crop.

1. Old Fashioned: Tracked a very strong pace in the Southwest.
2. Dunkirk: Well-bred colt's allowance win 2-19 was gigantic.
3. Desert Party: Godolphin's best Derby hope yet.
4. Pioneer of the Nile: Looks great on the synthetic tracks.
5. Midshipman: Will he move forward as a three-year-old, in Dubai?
6. Stardom Bound: Santa Anita Derby a good place to try open company.
7. Patena: Well-bred for distance; anticipating the Dutrow bump.
8. Friesan Fire: Nothing wrong with his form.
9. Mr. Fantasy: We know he is fast. Class test looms in Gotham.
10. Imperial Council: A lot will have to break right for him to make Derby.
11. The Pamplemousse: Loved his San Rafael. Big work 2-18.
12. Chocolate Candy: North Cal sleeper has great pedigree.
13. Capt. Candyman Can: Hutcheson was a nice step forward.
14. Hello Broadway: Half to Nobiz still has upside.
15. Giant Oak: Plenty of potential but still learning to run.

Sale time!

The parking lot here at the OBS sales grounds is overflowing and the pavilion is as crowded as I've seen it. Maybe it's the promise of a new two-year-old crop. Or perhaps the anticipation of value has brought more buyers to Ocala. Then again, maybe it's just a bunch of Ocala-ites who turned out to watch a horse sale.

We'll know soon enough. The first horse should be in the ring any minute. Provided they vet ok, hips 1, 4, and 14 ought to hit six figures.

1 $300,000
4 $100,000
14 $127,000

Here is my Short List from the TODAY newsletter . This a deep group, so I had to make some tough choices.

For example, one of my favorite horses was actually Hip 197, a Concorde's Tune filly I left off my list on sire power. Her workout was awesome. Click on Hip 197 after you go here.

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As it turned out, quite a few people hung around to take a shot at the Concorde's Tune filly, who ultimately sold for $225,000 to bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne. She'll be one to watch for at the track.

Freshman sires at OBS Feb

It is only one breeze show, so it's far from the big picture, but I thought three freshman sires made strong showings at Friday's breeze show down here in Ocala.

Here is the hip-by-hip video link. And here are a few of the key works to check out from the freshman sires:

As a Grade 1 winning juvenile by Storm Cat, it should be no surprise if Consolidator's foals are quick and early, and that's exactly what hips 86 and 119 appear to be, with an emphasis on quick.

Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) was well-represented by the freakishly fast colt hip 72.

Hips 95 and 38, fillies by Grade 1 winner Purge (sorry, no conformation picture in the stallion directory), turned in what I thought were two of the best breezes in the sale.

Reporting from Ocala

I'm down in Ocala for the February two-year-old sale, which is Tuesday.

After watching videos and walking the barns today I've come away with a not-so-short list of 47! There are some nice horses in here this year. I have to get those 47 down to 10 for my short list that will run in the Thoroughbred Times TODAY newsletter on sale day.

The times were blazing on the OBS synthetic SafeTrack. Twenty-one horses worked one furlong in less than ten seconds! click here for the under-tack times and here for the videos

The synthetic tracks seem to make most horses look like good movers. And with this year's fast times (probably a click faster than last year) the gap between the fastest horse and the slowest horse has shortened.

This means less horses can be crossed off on the basis of the workout alone, so buyers are going to the barns to look at more horses than ever before. Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan told me he is essentially approaching it like a yearling sale.

Desert Party II

The focus is back on Dubai today for the UAE 2000 Guineas (UAE-G3), which includes Desert Party, Vineyard Haven, and Regal Ransom.

Jockey assignments for the 1600-meter (about 1 mile) race on the dirt are quite interesting, as Godolphin's top rider Frankie Dettori is on Desert Party. Vineyard Haven should blast this field based on his two-year-old form, but either he isn't cranked for this race or Desert Party has surpassed him in the eyes of the Godolphin camp.

Post time is 1:05 p.m. Eastern, and the race will be shown on TVG and HRTV.

Coming up in 10 minutes, former American-based horses City Style and Jose Adan are in the GNB Plate, a 1300-meter (about 6 1/2 furlongs) turf race.

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City Style, who ran a good fourth behind Donativum in the BC Juvenile Turf, used a strong stretch rally to romp in the GNB Plate. The City Zip colt was part of Sheikh Mohammed's acquisition of Stonerside Stable.

Jose Adan was used tracking the pace and faded...

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The jockey assignments proved an accurate tell in the UAE Guineas, as Desert Party reeled in stablemate Regal Ransom and scored a 4 3/4-length victory. Vineyard Haven, the most accomplished American two-year-old on dirt in 2008, finished a dull fourth.

Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, sold for $2.1-million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training. Consigned by Scanlon Training Center, he was the most expensive horse to sell at the training sales last year.

Hidden Brook, agent for Paul Pompa Jr. pinhooked him for $425,000 out of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.

Here is the replay link (races 4 and 6) from Dubai.

Picking the freshman sires of 2009

One of my favorite issues of the year has arrived – the Thoroughbred Times freshman sire forum.

This year’s guest selectors were Sobhy Sonbol of Zayat Stables, Eric Guillot of Southern Equine Stables, Florida pinhooker Eddie Woods, and Utah-based pinhooker John Brocklebank.

Bloodstock Editor John P. Sparkman invited them to pick five freshman sires each. To see a pdf of the magazine story, including the complete list of freshman sires for 2009 so you can make your own picks, click here.

The two-year-old sales will tell us much more about the new studs, such as how their progeny move and what kind of speed they have, but here are the five sires I’m most excited about at this time:

1) Ghostzapper
2) Rock Hard Ten
3) Closing Argument
4) Afleet Alex
5) Roman Ruler

Horse of the Year Ghostzapper is the obvious standout from this crop based on his initial $200,000 stud fee. A nine-length winner of his debut as a two-year-old, Ghostzapper is one of the fastest horses of the modern speed figure era. The three things I noted in his babies were balance, bone, and (perceived) class.

Rock Hard Ten is not a horse that will be expected to peak as a juvenile sire, but I saw several yearlings I absolutely loved, led by a $700,000 colt out of Tapstress that the Thoroughbred Legends bought at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga. Word is Bob Baffert will train him. I would love to see this son of Kris. S turn out to be an important sire.

Closing Argument got called up to Kentucky on the strength of his first crop of weanlings, and it was obvious why. The son of Successful Appeal is producing well muscled, athletic foals that simply look fast.

They are not fancy looking horses, but by the end of last year Afleet Alex started to win me over. And when a skilled pinhooker like Eddie Woods says they all move well, I take note. I love the sire’s combination of speed and stamina and his ability to win at six furlongs to 1 ½ miles.

For the fifth spot on my list I figure I better take a stallion who is getting fast, precocious types, which I narrowed to Forest Danger and Roman Ruler. Donato Lanni of Hill ’n’ Dale Farms, where Roman Ruler stands, says I would be a fool to leave Roman Ruler off my list. Lanni won my freshman sire contest in 2008, and he has a sharp eye for talent, so his advice broke the tie.

Who do you like from the freshman sire class of 2009?

Is Betfair a good idea for America?

The biggest development related to Betfair’s purchase of Television Games Network is whether it will bring exchange wagering to America.

A fixture in Europe for almost a decade, Betfair offers players a chance to play bookmaker. It’s an exciting idea, provided integrity and handle issues can be worked out.

The handicapper/bettor in me loves the idea of a betting exchange. For one, it’s easier to pick a loser than a winner. And horse racing needs innovative ideas to combat declining handle.

Exchange wagering gives more people more reasons to bet on horse racing, whether by laying odds on horses they don’t like or by betting on a horse at a few points higher than will be offered through pari-mutuel pools.

But given the integrity problems the sport already faces, such as tote security and performance-enhancing drugs, is now the right time?

Betting exchanges amplify the power of insider trading. In the pari-mutuel system, even if someone thinks they know Horse A is going to run poorly, they still have to pick the winner in order to leverage that opinion. The ability to bet on a horse to perform badly provides direct incentive for a poor performance.

The other issue will be to ensure racetracks and horsemen get a fair share of handle from Betfair. An estimate of how much Betfair will cannibalize existing pari-mutuel handle will have to be worked into that formula.

Betfair already has made progress in winning over the horsemen’s organizations. Tracks, particularly Churchill Downs Inc., will be another matter entirely.

Benny's back

Other than the results of the votes, the big news coming out of last night's Eclipse Awards was the comeback of Champion Sprinter Benny the Bull.

The now six-year-old horse was retired in late August after developing ankle chips. But after stud plans failed to come together and an operation to remove the chips went smoothly, his owners began kicking around the idea of a return.

I recently spoke with trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., who really loves the enigmatic stretch runner and is ecstatic about the chance to train him again.

"I absolutely love the horse. He’s one of the funniest, coolest horses I’ve ever been around. By watching him train, you’d never think he’d be up for sprinter of the year. It took him forever to do anything. He did not want to work. When he would walk to the track, he wanted everybody in the world to feel so sorry for him because we were making him go out there and gallop. He'd have his head down."

"One day it was the funniest thing. I’m always standing on the rail at Aqueduct. Here comes Benny. It takes him like an hour and a half to walk a sixteenth of a mile, and he heard me open a mint wrapper. Naturally he was all over that. He came right to me, took the mint, and started marching right back home. It was the funniest thing I ever saw. I couldn’t stop laughing."

Dutrow said it was primarily IEAH Stables' Michael Iavaraone's idea to buy Benny privately, which IEAH did following the Lucky Lionel colt's win in the Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows on June 30, 2007.

Dutrow also credits exercise riders Michelle Nevin and Rudy Rodriguez for their work with Benny.

"They might be one of the reasons he turned out to be the sprinter he did. Those two people fit whatever is best for the horse they’re on. Maybe letting Benny be Benny, it turned him into the sprinter he is."

Dutrow said Benny is on a farm in Ocala right now, next to his old stablemate Diamond Stripes. The two horses traveled to Nad al Sheba together in March of 2008 when Diamond Stripes won the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2) and Benny won the Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1).

"False Surface"

Since the synthetic tracks are a favorite subject, I have to revisit Jess Jackson's "false surface" comment from the Eclipse Awards.

Here's what Jackson said during his acceptance speech for Curlin's Champion Older Horse award:

"I congratulate the Europeans for coming over and running on a false surface. But I do believe that given another year of racing Curlin might have shown that he could adjust his pasterns to do that."

Eclipse voters apparently concurred to a degree. They went against the results of the first synthetic Breeders' Cup in a few categories, choosing Indian Blessing over Ventura, Benny the Bull over Midnight Lute, and Curlin over Zenyatta.

The horses I voted for went 10-for-10 in the horse categories, but I was just 2-for-5 in the human categories. No surprise that Steve Asmuseen won outstanding trainer, I just liked Richard Dutrow, Bob Baffert, and Bobby Frankel's work better.

I preferred IEAH Stables in the owner category and Stonerside for breeder, instead of Adena Springs.

Desert Party begins for Godolphin

In case you missed it, they ran a race of interest in Dubai Thursday morning.

The $50,000 Ford Flex Trophy (about 7 furlongs) featured the three-year-old debut of 2008 Sanford Stakes (G2) winner Desert Party and Saratoga maiden graduate Regal Ransom.

Desert Party stalked the pace and then switched to the inside during the long stretch run to score a half-length win over his stablemate. Both of the top finishers looked good in the field of 16, which included South Africa’s champion two-year-old Rocks Off (who is now a four-year-old).

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum purchased Desert Party and Regal Ransom at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale of selected two-year-olds in training.

Desert Party, by Street Cry (Ire) out of Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat, was the $2.1-million sale topper and the most expensive two-year-old to sell at auction last year. Regal Ransom, a Distorted Humor colt out of Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom, sold for $675,000.

With likely two-year-old champion Midshipman and Champagne Stakes (G1) winner Vineyard Haven based in Dubai, the racing carnival at Nad al Sheba will be of greater interest on the Triple Crown trail than ever before.

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While we’re on the subject, this Dubai Racing Club press release was making the rounds in our office Thursday morning. The theory being pushed by the writer is that, contrary to what many American horsemen believe, a trip to Dubai does not take much out of a horse.

The case study is 11-year-old Tour of the Cat, who finished eighth in the 2004 Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) but has remained a productive racehorse, albeit after taking 14 months off at the end of 2004 and gradually sliding down the class scale.

Tour of the Cat’s January 18 win at Aqueduct prompted a press release from NYRA recognizing the old millionaire warrior.

The Dubai Racing Club latched onto the story but attached a different spin. Here’s the key sentence.

“The [January 18, 2009] victory is more evidence disproving a myth that has been circulated by some members of the American media that horses that travel to the Middle East to race often don’t perform much longer afterward.”

What the press release failed to disclose was that Tour of the Cat’s victory last Sunday came in a $7,500 claiming race!

Random thoughts on the Saturday cards

So far in 2009, Gulfstream Park gets my vote for best racing (for its day-to-day consistency).

But Santa Anita is the card to watch this Saturday with its graded stakes trio (Races 6-7-8) on the Pro-Ride surface.

The Santa Ynez (G2) is a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. The top two choices in the field of nine should be Sorrento Stakes (G3) winner Evita Argentina and Alpha Kitten, who shortens up off a fourth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Hollywood Starlet (G1).

How big would a win by Spanish Ice be for the stallion career of second-crop sire Spanish Steps? Martin Stables owns Spanish Ice and stands her sire, an unraced full brother to Unbridled's Song. Eddie Martin has supported Spanish Steps strongly with his own mares and his efforts at auction.

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How good was the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), won by Midshipman? We'll get some indicator from the 1-mile San Rafael Stakes (G3), where Square Eddie makes his three-year-old debut.

Square Eddie appeared to run a good second in the Breeders' Cup. If the '08 Juvenile was a quality edition, he rolls in here. If he loses, it'll make me regret not voting for Vineyard Haven as champion two-year-old male.

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The San Fernando, at 1 1/16 miles, drew an eclectic group that includes New York-bred Grade 3 winner Wishful Tomcat, a recent private purchase for IEAH Stables.

Muny, Cherokee Artist, Booted, El Gato Malo, and Slew's Tiznow are the promising four-year-olds I'm watching for in here.

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It was a pretty disappointing afternoon on the Pro-Ride.

Spanish Ice scratched, but Alpha Kitten looked good winning the Santa Ynez. As did runner-up Evita Argentina, whose sire Candy Ride (Arg) continues to look like a solid stud.

In the San Rafael, Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie finished an uninspiring second in a weak field of five at 3-to-5 odds. The winner, The Pamplemousse, set swift fractions and kicked for home. He was the only horse to do any serious running, and this definitely puts a question mark on the quality of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

In the San Fernando, Nownownow, back under the care of Patrick Biancone, resurfaced for his first victory since the 2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Del Mar Derby (G2) winner Madeo was was pulled up and vanned off. (Trainer John Shireffs said on Sunday he believed Madeo would be fine.)

Later on at Golden Gate Fields, Candy Ride's stock kept rising as Chocolate Candy was a 1 3/4-length winner in the California Derby.

Gallant Son, who finished seventh but was beaten just 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, could do no better than fifth.

Mares vs. yearlings

Day three of the Keeneland January horses of all ages sales got interesting when Florida pinhooker Jimmy Gladwell outlasted Bill and Brian Graves (among others) and paid $390,000 for a Maria's Mon colt out of La Cucina (Ire).

Gladwell and Graves are a couple of the best evaluators in the business, so this was a battle of the sharpies, and they pushed the colt's price close to the brink of pinhook profitability.

The price was an example of how the commercial market is still quite strong for attractive yearlings.

Another thing that jumped out to me was that La Cucina, in foal to $75,000 stud Empire Maker, sold for just $150,000 on Monday to Anthony Penfold, agent for Litex Stud of England.

La Cucina is 16, but that price already looks like a good deal.

La Cucina has delivered 12 consecutive foals, including Grade 2 winner and sire Sir Cherokee. And she has done some excellent recent work in terms of sales results and racetrack success.

Her foal of 2005, the Silver Charm filly Miss Isella, won the 2008 Falls City Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs. Her Speightstown filly of 2007 was a $230,000 yearling.

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Open mares are selling ridiculusly cheap.

Olin Gentry, as agent, just bought 16-year-old St. Helens Shadow for $19,000. She is the dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Officer.

As DRF's Frank Mitchell just said to me, "Open mares ... it's astonishing what they won't bring."